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新掌門光靠iPad版Office還救不了微軟

新掌門光靠iPad版Office還救不了微軟

Kevin Kelleher 2014年04月24日
iPad版Office對于告別鮑爾默、迎來納德拉的微軟來說不啻為一個重大的象征性勝利。它意味著微軟開始告別封閉和壟斷思維,走向開放和競爭。這種轉變有望為微軟贏得明天,但它依然需要解決一些長期困擾發展的老大難問題。

????當一位CEO從性情急躁、口若懸河如史蒂夫?鮑爾默這樣的領導者手中接過權杖之后,他如何才能贏得關注?對于薩蒂亞?納德拉來說(他似乎不大可能像他的前任那樣在舞臺上汗流浹背地演出),答案在于一個大膽的戰略姿態:讓微軟公司(Microsoft)的旗艦產品Office軟件進入iPad平臺。

????作為微軟的搖錢樹,Office早就被擋在了平板電腦市場的綠色牧場之外。一些人認為,這正是微軟打破數十年來不生產個人電腦設備的傳統,開始制造Surface平板電腦的原因所在。這項代價高昂的實驗目前還沒有產生預期效果。盡管Surface的銷量一直在增長,但它2%的市場份額依然落后于三星(Samsung)平板電腦和亞馬遜(Amazon)的Kindle Fire,當然更無法跟iPad相提并論了。

????鑒于納德拉正在從鮑爾默接過權杖,微軟有機會開啟一個新時代。它將有別于以業績溫和增長、進軍企業級軟件為特征的鮑爾默時期,也將更進一步遠離微軟以鐵拳統治PC軟件領域的蓋茨時期。納德拉治下的微軟似乎是一家圖謀參與市場競爭、而不是控制市場的公司。

????納德拉的工作經驗所涉及的正是那些擁有增長前景的技術——云計算,多平臺,移動性,大數據。而這些技術恰恰處在微軟輝煌歷史所依托的專有軟件的對立面。這就是為什么微軟宣布推出iPad版Office 365軟件這個消息為什么如此引人矚目。這個舉措的看點倒不是兩大宿敵即將共享收入,而是微軟冒著傷害自身移動平臺的風險,擴展至另一個更大的平臺。微軟正在呈現出前所未有的開放性。

????此外,這也是納德拉首次鄭重其事地公開亮相,既是一個產品的發布會,又是首席執行官粉墨登場。這樣做存在風險:它或許會讓外界覺得,迫于壓力,微軟不得不在老對手的設備上運行自己最倚賴的產品,同時還需要拿出30%的收入購買這項特權。換句話說就是,微軟正在屈從于蘋果(Apple)。但恰恰相反,納德拉正在被越來越多地視為一位最終將引領這家軟件業巨擘走出PC時代,進入云經濟的卓越領導者。

????上個月,微軟即將推出iPad版Office應用這則消息一經發布就激蕩起層層漣漪。分析師們對此褒貶不一。《紐約時報》(The New York Times)懷疑,這個明智之舉是否為時已晚。Techcrunch認為這款應用值得期待。《福布斯》(Forbes)則嗤之以鼻,認為這樣做無法改變游戲規則。

????在App Store上架幾個星期后,iPad版Office正在證明早期的質疑是錯誤的。第一周,有超過1,200萬用戶下載了Office應用。現在,Word,Excel和PowerPoint已成為iPad App Store三大最受歡迎的免費應用(游戲除外,從游戲受到的追捧可以看出,平板電腦或許是一種供用戶休閑娛樂的設備,而不是提高生產率的利器)。這些基本應用免費提供一些最基礎的功能,但訂購Office 365的用戶可以享用更多功能。

????于投資者而言,iPad版Office的到來不可能轉化為實實在在的收益,至少短時間內不可能。它或許會幫助微軟進入那些相較于傳統PC更青睞平板電腦的企業的購買選項,但此舉也有可能蠶食微軟固有的高利潤市場。自iPad問世以來,臺式機和筆記本電腦的銷量一直在下降,盡管近幾個月來這種下滑正在趨于穩定。

????于微軟而言,此舉恐怕不會帶動短期收益,它所具有的象征性價值更高一些。像微軟這類行業巨擘的CEO往往會設定一家公司的基調,而且就某些方面而言,鮑爾默時期籠罩在微軟上空的那片陰云似乎已經消退。當然,鮑爾默也曾經致力于把微軟推向一個更開放的方向,但納德拉接掌大權之后,這一幕似乎終于開始轉化為現實。

????當然,Office只是微軟業務的一部分。除了它之外,微軟商用事業部的主要貢獻者還包括Sharepoint和Exchange。該事業部占微軟收入的三分之一,運營收入的五分之三。但商用事業部近年來一直業績平平——在微軟公司截止2013年6月份的上一財年,這一塊的收入僅增長了 2.5%,在2013年的下半年更是下跌了6%。

????微軟服務器和在線服務事業部的收入正在呈現更快的增長勢頭,盡管這些部門的利潤率要低得多。(在線事業部更是常年虧損。)所以,盡管iPad版Office被視為納德拉治下的微軟的一大象征性勝利,但這家公司依然受困于一些老問題:企業級軟件市場和老態龍鐘的PC操作軟件業務。

????iPad版Office對于告別鮑爾默、進入納德拉時代的微軟而言不啻為一個良好的開端,但這位新晉掌門人隨后還需要推出更多富有創意的大膽舉措。唯有如此,微軟才能不負投資者目前的期望,實現華麗轉身,成為一家活力四射、面向未來的公司。(財富中文網)

????譯者:葉寒

????How does a CEO grab attention when he's the follow-up act to a brash, voluble leader like Steve Ballmer? For Satya Nadella, who hardly seems prone to the same kind of sweat-soaked stage performance of his predecessor, the answer lay in a bold strategic gesture: Get Microsoft (MSFT) Office onto the iPad.

????Office, of course, had long been Microsoft's great cash cow fenced off from the green pastures of the tablet market. Some believed it was the reason Microsoft started making Surface tablets after decades of not manufacturing personal computing devices. That expensive experiment hasn't exactly delivered a hit. Surface sales are growing, but its 2% market share lags those of Samsung, Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire, and of course the iPad (AAPL).

????With Nadella taking the reins from Ballmer, Microsoft has the chance to begin a new era -- distinct from the Ballmer years that saw modest growth and a move into enterprise software, and even more remote from the Gates years when Microsoft ruled PC software with an iron fist. Nadella's Microsoft appears to be a company that aims to compete in markets rather than control them.

????Nadella's experience is aligned with the same technologies that promise future growth -- cloud computing, multi-platforms, mobility, big data -- the antithesis of the proprietary software that Microsoft built its historical success on. That's why the Office 365 for iPad announcement was notable. It wasn't so much two longtime enemies sharing revenue. It was Microsoft risking its own mobile platform by expanding to another, bigger platform. It was a Microsoft open like never before.

????The announcement was also Nadella's first big public appearance, a product launch cum CEO debut. The move was a risky one: It could telegraph that Microsoft was capitulating to Apple (AAPL), running its prized wares on its old rival's device while paying a 30% share of revenue for the privilege. Increasingly, Nadella is instead being seen as a leader who can finally usher the company out of the PC era and into the cloud economy.

????Last month, when Microsoft announced that Office apps would be available for the iPad, the news stirred a ripple of notice. Analysis was mixed. The New York Times wondered if it wasn't the right move too late. Techcrunch found it to be worth the wait. Someone at Forbes dismissed it as a non-game changer.

????After a few weeks in the App Store, Office for iPad is proving the early skeptics wrong. More than 12 million people downloaded Office Apps in the first week. Today, Word, Excel, and Powerpoint are the three most popular free apps in the iPad App Store (excluding games, which shows that tablets may be better for idleness than productivity). The basic apps are free for bare-bones functionality, but a subscription to Office 365 opens up more features.

????For investors, the arrival of Office for iPad is unlikely to translate into material earnings, at least any time soon. It may open Microsoft to businesses that prefer tablets over traditional PCs, but it could also cannibalize the company's older, high-margin markets. Desktop and laptop sales have been declining since the iPad's introduction, although recent months have shown signs those declines are stabilizing.

????If the move has little short-term benefit for Microsoft, its symbolic value is higher. CEOs of prominent companies like Microsoft often set the tone of a company, and in some ways Microsoft now appears to have lost the cloud hanging over it when Ballmer was there. Ballmer, of course, also worked to push Microsoft into a more open direction, but somehow Nadella's presence makes it seem like it may finally be happening.

????Office, of course, is only one part of Microsoft's business. It's the prime contributor to the company's business division, along with Sharepoint and Exchange. That division makes up a third of Microsoft's revenue and three-fifths of its operating income. But growth in the division has been flat -- revenue rose only 2.5% in Microsoft's last fiscal year (ended June 2013) and declined 6% in the last six months of 2013.

????Microsoft is seeing faster revenue growth in its server and online services divisions, although these segments have much lower margins. (The online division has been a perennial money loser.) So while the Office move is seen as a symbolic victory for Nadella's Microsoft, the company is still weighed down by many of the same old issues: an enterprise software market and the aging business in PC operating software.

????Office for iPad is a strong start to Nadella's follow-up act to Ballmer. But it will need to be followed by a lot more creative, bold moves to change Microsoft into the dynamic, future-oriented company that investors are hoping it can become.

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