????去年，在中國市場帶動下，亞洲消費電子產品銷售額在歷史上首次超過了北美。中國電子消費產品市場的高增長對行業觀察人士和人口學家來說并不意外，因為中國人口超過100萬的城市目前已經有160多座；而在美國，這樣的城市只有9座。

????今年，中國GDP預計將增長7.4%，增幅高于美國。雖然有這樣的增長率，但美國消費電子產品協會（CEA）預計，來自全世界的消費電子產品今年在亞洲的銷售額將下跌1%。

????這樣的跌幅和今年全球市場的前景并無二致——今年，全球科技產品銷售額預計將從去年的1.068萬億美元降至1.055萬億美元（原因何在？一個巨大的不利因素是價格壓力：科技產品價格的下降速度有超過需求增速的傾向。）不過，指望中國這樣的高增長市場逆全球形勢而動也不能說是不合理的期待。

????全球經濟趨勢不明朗，中國經濟在這個背景下也放慢了發展腳步。這種情況引發了一連串的多米諾效應。首先，消費信心減弱；隨后，在人們眼中不屬于日常用品的產品出現了銷售額下降。另外，中國政府于2013年5月停止對消費電子產品提供補貼（多年來，中國消費電子產品市場一直靠政府補貼來提振農村和非一線地區的需求），中國對消費電子產品的需求開始減弱。

????CEA首席經濟學家肖恩?杜博拉瓦克說：“我們見到過這樣的情況，中國消費者由于可以享受補貼而購買電子產品。存在便利時人們才會消費，而補貼占這些便利的很大一部分。中國消費者購買的產品包括大屏幕電視，就像二戰后的美國，成為日子越過越好的中產階層的標志就是擁有收音機，后來變成了擁有電視機。世界上所有國家的情況都是這樣，無論是在非洲，在東南亞，還是在中國。”

????但杜博拉瓦克認為，政府補貼的終止并不代表著中國的中產階層人數將停止增長，“補貼起到了一定作用，但不是決定性作用。”

????For the first time ever, sales of consumer electronics last year in Asia, led by China, exceeded sales in North America. To industry observers and demographers alike, the rapid growth of the Chinese market for consumer electronics comes as no surprise: There are now more than 160 cities in China with a population of more than 1 million people. In the United States, there are just nine.

????This year, China's gross domestic product is also expected to rise, to 7.4%, and it is rising faster than that of the United States. Despite this growth, the sale of worldwide consumer electronics in Asia is predicted to drop 1% this year, according to the Consumer Electronics Association.

????The dip isn't out of line with the global outlook for the year: Worldwide tech sales are expected to fall to $1.055 trillion this year, down from $1.068 trillion last year. (Why? For one thing, the tremendous undertow that is price pressure: The prices for technology-related products tend to fall faster than demand rises.) Still, for a rapidly growing market, it is not unreasonable to expect China to buck the global trend.

????Amid uncertain global economic trends, the Chinese economy slowed down. That led to a series of falling dominoes: first, a decline in consumer confidence, then, a drop in sales of products that are not considered to be daily necessities. Add the May 2013 cessation of government subsidies for consumer electronic products in China -- for several years, the country's consumer electronics market relied on them to help stimulate demand in rural and lower-class areas -- and the country's demand for consumer electronics began to flag.

????"We had seen stories where people in China were buying electronics because the subsidies were in place," said Shawn DuBravac, chief economist for the CEA. "People buy products when they have the means, and the subsidies were a big part of this. The products that the Chinese were buying included large-screen TVs -- it was like in the United States after World War II, when having a radio and later a TV was a sign of a rising middle class. This is true of all countries around the world, whether it is in Africa, southeast Asia, or China."

????Though the subsidies from Beijing have ended, it won't mean an end to China's growing middle class, DuBravac said. "Subsidies have played a role," he told Fortune, "but they are not the defining role."