????即使經歷了近期的下跌之后，科技股獲得的成長估值依然過高。

????目前，科技股已較3月初的高點下跌了6%，超過同期大盤的跌幅。

????但這并不意味著大家現在可以揀點便宜貨了。根據2014年預期收益計算，納斯達克100指數（Nasdaq 100）的成份股平均動態市盈率為18倍，高于標準普爾500指數（S&P 500）16倍的市盈率。而且，這還是在科技股下跌之后。

????科技股的擁躉者們表示，將科技股的市盈率與一般大公司相比不公平。科技股的利潤增速往往較快，因此應該享有較高的市盈率。

????公平一點的做法是將科技股與科技股相比。市場研究公司FactSet的數據顯示，2001年初時納斯達克100指數的市盈率為60倍。因此，今天的18倍看起來很便宜。

????但問題是：目前科技公司的增速雖然仍高于其他行業，但收益增速已經顯著低于歷史水平。對于那些構成納斯達克100指數市值主體的大型科技公司，這個趨勢表現得更明顯。

????比方說，預計微軟（Microsoft）今年收益將僅增長3.4%。預計甲骨文（Oracle）的收益將增長1.3%。就算是蘋果（Apple），分析師們也只是預計將實現2.8%的利潤增長。

????回到2001年，當時分析師們預計納斯達克100指數的成份股利潤在接下來一年將增長34%。今天，分析師們預計納斯達克100指數中大盤股公司的利潤增幅是溫和得多的10%。

????另一個可用于分析這一問題的指標是GARP，據報道，這是共同基金巨頭彼得?林奇非常喜歡的一個指標。GARP比率就是以合理價格成長，用于比較一只股票或市場的市盈率與收益增長率。2001年時，納斯達克100指數的GARP比率約為1.8。如今的GARP比率也是1.8.

????2001年初買進科技股的投資者本以為撿了便宜，其實根本就不是那么回事。2001年這一年，納斯達克100指數再度下跌了33%。如今的投資者可能也會同樣地失望。（財富中文網）

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????For tech stocks, growth may no longer be coming at a reasonable price, even after the recent pull-back.

????Technology stocks are down 6% since they peaked in early March. And that drop is larger than the dip in the general market during the same time period.

????But that doesn't mean there are bargains to be had. The average stock in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has a price-to-earnings multiple of 18, based on projected 2014 bottom lines. That compares to 16 for the S&P 500 (SPX). And that's with the dip.

????Technology stock believers say it's unfair to compare the P/E ratios of the average large company to tech stocks. Technology companies tend to increase in earnings at a faster rate, so they deserve higher P/E ratios.

????It would be more fair to compare technology stocks to themselves. Back in early 2001, the Nasdaq 100 had a P/E of 60, according to FactSet. So today's 18 looks cheap.

????Here's the problem: Technology companies, while still growing faster than the rest of the economy, are not increasing their earnings nearly as fast as they once were. That's particularly true for the large technology companies that make up the majority of the market cap of the Nasdaq 100.

????Microsoft (MSFT), for instance, is only expected to increase its earnings 3.4% this year. Income at Oracle (ORCL) is projected to rise 1.3%. Even with Apple (AAPL), analysts are only looking for a 2.8% bottom-line jump.

????Back in 2001, analysts were predicting that the companies that then made up the the Nasdaq 100 would boost their bottom lines by 34% over the following year. These days, analysts are projecting a more modest 10% growth in earnings among Nasdaq's 100 largest companies.

????Another way to look at this is a ratio some call the GARP multiple, which was reportedly a favorite metric of mutual fund giant Peter Lynch. The name stands for Growth at a Reasonable Price, and the ratio compares a stock's, or the market's, P/E multiple to earnings growth. Back in 2001, the Nasdaq 100 had a GARP ratio of around 1.8. Today's GARP multiple: 1.8.

????Investors who bought into technology stocks in early 2001 thinking they were getting a bargain didn't get one. The Nasdaq 100 fell another 33% that year. Today's technology investors could be similarly disappointed.