????這個(gè)問題目前還沒有答案，不過蘋果在美國擁有一項(xiàng)名叫“腕式步態(tài)檢測計(jì)步器”的專利。它表明，蘋果公司有可能會(huì)繼耐克（Nike）的“能量手環(huán)”和Fitbit腕帶后，研發(fā)出一款被迫不及待的果粉提前命名為“iWatch”的新產(chǎn)品。

????沃爾夫表示，可穿戴設(shè)備是否會(huì)顯著蠶食現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品類別的市場，目前仍然有待觀察。

????沃爾夫說：“目前來看，智能手表可能將成為走在最前面的一種可穿戴設(shè)備。但谷歌眼鏡的例子也表明，可穿戴設(shè)備的范疇可能會(huì)廣泛得多。隨著時(shí)間的推移，甚至連我們穿的衣服都有可能智能化。”目前大多數(shù)公司都把智能手表當(dāng)成跟智能手機(jī)配對(duì)的一個(gè)配件來開發(fā)，而不是把它當(dāng)成智能手機(jī)的替代品。雖然很多大廠商都把可穿戴設(shè)備和智能手機(jī)搭配使用，但可穿戴設(shè)備仍然存在蠶食其它設(shè)備的市場的可能。首先是基本的健身腕帶將遭受沉重的打擊，因?yàn)椴还苁裁磿r(shí)候，只要你的產(chǎn)品功能有限，就會(huì)被更加全面的產(chǎn)品超越。”

????HIS公司數(shù)碼健康副主任謝恩?沃克認(rèn)為，小型化的小眾產(chǎn)品如果不繼續(xù)增長，就會(huì)遭到市場上其他力量的挑戰(zhàn)。

????沃爾稱：“運(yùn)動(dòng)和健身領(lǐng)域的競爭已經(jīng)很激烈了，計(jì)步器和心率監(jiān)視這一塊雖然可能還有增長空間，但是千篇一率同類產(chǎn)品將很難在市場上站住腳。”

????不過恩德勒集團(tuán)（Enderle Group）的首席分析師羅伯?恩德勒指出，這個(gè)市場要想真正增長，還需要一款突破性產(chǎn)品，一款消費(fèi)者“非買不可”的產(chǎn)品。

????恩德勒說：“現(xiàn)在可穿戴市場的產(chǎn)品總量基本上和iPod問世之前的MP3播放器差不多，而像FitBit和耐克的產(chǎn)品主要圍繞著健身功能。它雖然是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的市場，但是很缺乏潛力。有了正確的產(chǎn)品，這個(gè)市場就有可能與智能手機(jī)相匹敵，甚至取代智能手機(jī)市場。但目前這個(gè)正確的產(chǎn)品還沒出現(xiàn)，而且也沒有喬布斯式的人物來重演iPod的奇跡。所以目前可穿戴設(shè)備主要局限在健身和保健領(lǐng)域，但是它的潛力是廣闊的。但是我們需要的是一款像iPod、iPhone或iPad這樣能實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)潛力的產(chǎn)品。”

????這是不是有點(diǎn)賭運(yùn)氣的感覺？對(duì)此沃爾夫表示，如果你相信這個(gè)商機(jī)，它就完全有可能。

????沃爾夫認(rèn)為：“可穿戴設(shè)備的銷量擁有超過平板電腦的潛力，它是一個(gè)更加廣闊的產(chǎn)品類別。‘可穿戴設(shè)備’可以是虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)頭盔，可以是手表，可以是掛在腰上的東西，甚至是可以穿在衣服上的技術(shù)。這個(gè)市場的門檻很低，所以未來十年，這個(gè)類別將出現(xiàn)重大增長。而且總體上可穿戴市場這個(gè)大蛋糕會(huì)變得大得多。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????

????That part of the equation remains unanswered, though Apple retains a U.S. patent for "Wrist Pedometer Step Detection," suggesting that the Cupertino, Calif.-based company is looking to create something -- devotees are calling it the iWatch -- along the lines of Nike's FuelBand or the Fitbit.

????It remains to be seen whether wearables will significantly cannibalize existing product categories, Wolf said.

????"For now the leading category will likely be smartwatches, but as Google Glass suggests, it could become much broader and in time even be in the clothing we wear," Wolf said. "Most of the companies developing smartwatches see this as a product that accompanies a smartphone as opposed to any sort of replacement. Certainly the big players view this as a device used with a smartphone, but there could be some cannibalization of other devices. The basic fitness bands will be hit hard, because any time you have a limited product it could be overtaken by the more general products."

????Smaller, niche players must grow or face challenging market forces, said Shane Walker, associate director for Digital Health Research at IHS.

????"In sports and fitness there has been a lot of competition," Walker said. "There could still be growth in the activity and heart rate monitors, but the 'me too' type of devices will find it hard to stick around."

????But for the market to really grow, it will need a breakthrough, "must-have" product, said Rob Enderle, principal analyst for the Enderle Group.

????"Right now wearable [product] volumes are around where MP3 players were pre-iPod, and the success surrounds products like the FitBit and Nike offerings focused on exercise," Enderle said. "It is a decent market but well short of potential. With the right product, this market could grow to rival or even replace the smartphone market, but the right product hasn't emerged yet and Steve Jobs isn't around to repeat the iPod cycle. So, for now, it is limited to exercise and health care, the potential is there for more -- but we need an iPod-, iPhone-, iPad-like effort to achieve that potential."

????Is that kind of push in the cards? If the business opportunity is to be believed, it's entirely possible, Wolf said.

????"Wearables has the potential from units sold as a category to be bigger than tablets," Wolf said. "It is a much more expansive category. 'Wearables' could be VR headsets. It could be a watch. It could be something on your hip or technology in your clothing. The hurdles to get in on this market are low, so there is going to be serious expansion of the category over the next decade. Yes, that overall pie is going to get a lot bigger."