????我們不知道這家公司的股票在首次公開發(fā)行之后會(huì)上漲還是下跌。有太多變數(shù)和情感因素會(huì)影響人們的判斷。但根據(jù)我們對事情的一般性判斷，中國版Twitter微博（Weibo）即將進(jìn)行的首次公開發(fā)行恐怕不會(huì)太過樂觀。

????微博原名新浪微博（Sina Weibo）。這家公司表示，即將在對科技公司友好的納斯達(dá)克（Nasdaq）上市，股票代碼為WB，計(jì)劃募集5億美元。中國科技公司往往利用美國炙手可熱的IPO市場，而微博是其中最新的一家公司。隨著市場對新浪微博的接納，微博的母公司、中國門戶網(wǎng)站新浪（Sina）正在將新浪微博拆分。規(guī)模更大的阿里巴巴集團(tuán)（Alibaba Group）【業(yè)務(wù)與亞馬遜（Amazon）類似】很快也將赴紐約上市，估值超過1,000億美元；另外一家在線零售商京東（JD.com），預(yù)計(jì)將在今年晚些時(shí)候上市。

????對于微博，投資者應(yīng)該擔(dān)心的是，中國正在轉(zhuǎn)變的風(fēng)向。微博提供的Twitter式微博客熱度正在減退（微博本身便來自微型博客一詞）。事實(shí)上，2013年，微博總用戶數(shù)量減少了9%，為2.81億。但微博方面表示，截至2013年底，微博的每月用戶基數(shù)增加到1.29億，而2012年是9,700萬。如今，用戶有了新的選擇，微博不再是首選的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)。這項(xiàng)桂冠屬于騰訊（Tencent）的微信（WeChat）。

????與微博不同，微信是一個(gè)封閉的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)，類似于Facebook。人們希望與朋友、并且只能與朋友分享照片時(shí)，會(huì)使用微信。一位中國朋友告訴我，他通過微信轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)了《華爾街日報(bào)》（Wall Street Journal ）今天報(bào)道腐敗的文章，而不是通過微博，因?yàn)槲⒉┮呀?jīng)對這篇報(bào)道進(jìn)行了審查。另外一位朋友表示，她從去年就戒掉了微博；她只想使用微信。

????微信是微博強(qiáng)大的挑戰(zhàn)者。微信的每月用戶數(shù)量達(dá)到3億，而且微信的支付系統(tǒng)使用戶可以登錄應(yīng)用支付手機(jī)通訊費(fèi)，購買電影票。政府已經(jīng)開始打壓微博上的批評聲音和持不同政見的人，而目前，政府的審查不會(huì)輕易抵達(dá)微信，因此用戶自然會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移到微信。

????對于IPO投資者們而言，微博的財(cái)務(wù)狀況也不容忽視。微博仍然在繼續(xù)燒錢。2013年，它的年度虧損達(dá)到3,800萬美元，2012年為1.02億美元，2011年為1.18億美元。在快速增長的市場，公司為搶占市場份額而出現(xiàn)虧損是一回事。但當(dāng)整個(gè)市場縮水，便只能面對現(xiàn)實(shí)。正因?yàn)槿绱耍庞薪裉旒磳⒂瓉砩鲜械奈⒉＃ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????It's impossible to know whether a company's stock will rise or crash after an IPO. Too many variables and emotions influence the spectacle. But you can take a general pulse of things, and for the upcoming IPO of China's Twitter-like microblog Weibo, it's not very encouraging.

????Formerly Sina Weibo, now just Weibo, the company said it plans to soon list on the tech-friendly Nasdaq exchange, use the ticker WB, and raise $500 million. It's the latest Chinese tech company taking advantage of America's red-hot IPO market. Weibo's parent, Sina (SINA), an Internet portal in China, is spinning off Weibo while the market is receptive. The far larger Alibaba Group, with businesses similar to Amazon, will likely soon IPO in New York at a valuation above $100 billion; another online retailer, JD.com, is expected to list later this year.

????What should have investors worried about Weibo are the shifting winds in China. The Twitter-type of microblogging that Weibo provides (weibo itself translates into microblog) is becoming less popular. In fact, the number of total users dropped 9% to 281 million in 2013. For Weibo's part, it says its monthly user base grew to 129 million at the end of 2013, from 97 million in 2012. But new preferences have been made, and Weibo is no longer the go-to social network. That crown belongs to Tencent's WeChat.

????Unlike Weibo, WeChat is a closed social network, similar to Facebook (FB). When you want to share a picture with your friends, and only your friends, you use WeChat. A Chinese friend told me that he exchanged messages about today's Wall Street Journal story about corruption via WeChat, not Weibo, because Weibo was already censoring the story. Another friend said she quit Weibo last year; she only wants to use WeChat.

????WeChat is a formidable challenger to Weibo. Its monthly user base measures 300 million, and a WeChat payments system keeps users logging into their app to pay phone bills and buy movie tickets. Users naturally migrated to WeChat, an online area where the government's censors couldn't so easily reach, after the government started cracking down on criticism and dissident on Weibo.

????For IPO investors, Weibo's finances are no small matter. Weibo continues to hemorrhage money, posting annual losses of $38 million in 2013, $102 million in 2012, and $118 million in 2011. Losses are one thing when a company is fighting for market share in a rapidly growing industry. But when the pie shrinks, reality sets in. That's where Weibo finds itself at the dawn of an IPO.