????最近幾天，一款名為Secret（秘密）的社交應(yīng)用正經(jīng)過口耳相傳變得炙手可熱起來。這款iOS應(yīng)用的發(fā)布時間只有一周多，用戶可以通過它匿名分享信息和照片。

????根據(jù)App Annie網(wǎng)站的數(shù)據(jù)，Secret在App Store的排名正在穩(wěn)步攀升，目前已挺進(jìn)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)分類的前20名，在整體排行榜中也已躍居前150名。更為重要的一點(diǎn)是，這款應(yīng)用已經(jīng)抓住了科技與傳媒界早期使用者的芳心。不過，眼下的熱鬧可能也意味著Secret面臨的隱患：一款應(yīng)用流行得越快，也就死得越早。回顧過去幾年，聊天網(wǎng)站Chatroulette、社交音樂網(wǎng)站Turntable.fm、以及曾經(jīng)大紅大紫的你畫我猜（Draw Something）就是前車之鑒。因此，Secret眼下正面臨挑戰(zhàn)。

????互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶嘗試、然后拋棄一款應(yīng)用的速度正越來越快。證據(jù)比比皆是：匿名聊天網(wǎng)站Chatroulette的低俗內(nèi)容一度吸引了大量用戶，但它只堅持了大約9個月，后來就無人問津了。Turntable.fm在2011年夏天突然爆發(fā)，3個月后達(dá)到頂峰，然后就開始走下坡路。去年年底，Turntable.fm正式關(guān)閉，不過在這之前，這家網(wǎng)站趁熱打鐵也拉到了750萬美元風(fēng)投。至于你畫我猜，這款游戲2012年初突然竄紅，在App Store排行榜上一路攀升六周后，社交游戲公司Zynga耗資2億美元將它的制作公司OMGPop收入囊中。可幾乎就在交易完成之后，你畫我猜的用戶馬上開始流失。還有一些近來突然大紅大紫的應(yīng)用正在接受考驗，其中包括閱后即焚應(yīng)用Snapchat，短片分享應(yīng)用Vine，以及照片分享應(yīng)用Frontback。這款應(yīng)用在去年夏天曾獲得不少關(guān)注，不過隨后一直沉寂。結(jié)論是：大部分經(jīng)口耳相傳而名噪一時的應(yīng)用或公司最終都以失敗告終。

????游戲曇花一現(xiàn)的情況更加突出，如彗星般橫空出世，又有如流星般銷聲匿跡。谷歌（Google）的一張趨勢圖列出了四款游戲在過去5年的搜索趨勢：虛擬農(nóng)場（Farmville）、憤怒的小鳥（Angry Birds）、糖果粉碎傳奇（Candy Crush）和最近大熱的Flappy Bird，無一不是一夜爆紅，然后迅速隕落的例子。

????比起從事實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的企業(yè)，面向個人用戶的科技企業(yè)在面對瞬息萬變的變化時更容易成為一顆流星。隨著消費(fèi)者（更準(zhǔn)確地說是用戶）的興趣不斷轉(zhuǎn)變，我們越來越認(rèn)識到，一種新事物從興起到衰退的速度正在前所未有的加快。

????蘭?博格斯特是一位游戲設(shè)計師，也是喬治亞理工大學(xué)（Georgia Institute of Technology）負(fù)責(zé)人機(jī)學(xué)、文學(xué)、多媒體和通信學(xué)的教授。他說：“這種消費(fèi)趨勢的變化以往需要數(shù)十年時間，但如今只需要幾個月、幾周、甚至幾天時間，而我們對這種習(xí)慣已經(jīng)習(xí)以為常。”

????博格斯特稱：“大家收購Snapchat、Instagram、你畫我猜、Flappy Bird或者Secret時，肯定覺得這款應(yīng)用的流行時間不會太長……以后肯定會有新的應(yīng)用取代它們。”他還指出，始終緊跟潮流的難度太大。他補(bǔ)充說：“即便是我們這樣的內(nèi)行也覺得非常頭痛。”

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????In a scant few days, social media app Secret went from a viral hit to a bona fide phenomenon. Launched just over a week ago, the iOS app allows users to anonymously share notes and photos.

????It's been steadily climbing the App Store rankings, cracking the top 20 in social networking and top 150 overall, according to App Annie. Perhaps more importantly, it has captured the minds of early adopters in the tech and media worlds. But that could be the problem with this kind of buzz -- the faster an app explodes in popularity, the faster it burns out. If past viral hits like Chatroulette, Turntable.fm, and Draw Something are any indication, Secret is in for a challenge.

????The rate at which web users consume and discard new apps is accelerating. Proof of that is clear: Chatroulette was popular for around nine months before users lost interest in its often-lewd content. Turntable.fm, which exploded in the summer of 2011, peaked that fall before people tired of its novelty interface. It was popular for long enough to raise $7 million in venture funding before finally shutting down late last year. Draw Something, a game which took off in early 2012, climbed the App Store rankings for just six weeks before Zynga (ZNGA) acquired its parent company, OMGPop, for $200 million. Almost immediately after the deal, the app began losing users. Recent viral hits which the jury is still out on include Snapchat, Vine, and Frontback, a photo-sharing app which gained traction over the summer but has been quiet since. The moral is: The majority of viral apps and companies have ended up as losers.

????Games are particularly hit-driven, and the spikes in popularity and drop-offs afterwards are becoming steeper and steeper. See this Google Trends chart for searches of Farmville, Angry Birds,Candy Crush, and recent viral hit Flappy Bird over the last five years for proof of the quick spikes and subsequent drop-offs in interest.

????Consumer tech companies are looking more like blips in the news cycle than actual companies. As consumers (or rather, "users") surf from trend to trend, we're becoming increasingly aware of how fast the hot new thing falls out of favor.

????"Those sorts of consumer shifts used to take years or decades, but now they can happen in months or weeks or days, and we're becoming accustomed to that idea," says Ian Bogost, game designer and professor of interactive computing and literature, media, and communication at Georgia Institute of Technology.

????"When you pick up something like Snapchat or Instagram or Draw Something or Flappy Bird or Secret, you're kind of aware that this is a thing that will be here for a minute ... and there will be something to replace it," he said, noting that the pace of keeping up can be grueling. "Even for those of us who are in the know, it's exhausting," he added.