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水力壓裂法會誘發地震嗎?

水力壓裂法會誘發地震嗎?

Peter Elkind 2014-01-28
近幾年來,小型地震頻頻襲擊美國德克薩斯。許多當地人認為罪魁禍首就是開采頁巖氣的水力壓裂法。圍繞事情的真相,當地居民和鉆探公司之間爆發了持續不斷的沖突。

????埃爾斯沃思最近更新了去年7月發表在《科學》雜志(Science)上的一篇論文,他和兩位同事在文中指出,2010年至2013年,美國中部和東部爆發里氏3.0以上地震的頻率已經倍增至每年100次左右,與此同時,需要處置井的水力壓裂技術得到了廣泛使用。而在1970至2000年,年均地震次數僅為20次。

????還有幾項案例也將處置井列為疑犯,而且經過了仔細的研究。關停處置井,甚至只是減少注入地下的水量后,地震已經終止。

????阿斯萊周圍地區遭受的系列地震達到兩位數(《沃斯堡明星電訊報》近期一個頭版標題寫道,“得克薩斯州北部又一次發生地震”)之后,布倫德里特說服鐵路委員會于2月2日在當地一家高中召開一場市政廳會議。大約900位憤怒的居民出席了這場會議,強烈要求立即關閉注水井。

????鐵路委員會委員戴維?波特拒絕回答問題,堅稱他來這里只是想聽聽大家的看法,會場內頓時響起一片噓聲。布倫德里特說:“這種態度從一開始就惹惱了每一個人。”

????長期以來,這個委員會一直認為它既是能源業的監管者,同時又是它的推動者。委員們時常憑借石油和天然氣企業的巨額資金支持當選。波特的官方簡介形容他是一位注冊會計師,在得克薩斯州西部城市米德蘭經營一家成功的事務所,“為石油和天然氣生產商、特許權所有者、油田服務公司,以及其他小企業和個人提供會計和稅務服務。”

????“鐵路委員會非常關心,而且正在積極參與此事,但我們的行動必須建立在嚴謹的科學和已經得到證明的事實之上,而不是一些報刊文章和博客的猜測,”他在開場白中這樣說道。

????據當地媒體報道,兩個小時后,波特結束了會議,在州警察的護送下從后門狂奔而去。鐵路委員會隨后宣布,它將尋求更多的數據,同時聘請一位內部的地震專家。(波特的助手說他不愿進一步發表評論。)

????上周二,那些不愿意繼續等下去的居民乘車前往奧斯汀,要求立即采取行動。

????布倫德里特拒絕加入這趟巴士之旅。他認為,這些地震已經顯示出一個清晰的模式,但他承認,還需要做更進一步的研究。

????“我是石油和天然氣業的支持者,”他說。“當我們打開電燈開關的時候,我們總希望這些燈亮著。能源不會從天上掉下來。只不過,生產能源的方式或者地方有時候不對頭。”在巴涅特頁巖區,向鉆探公司出租土地給許多居民帶來了不菲的收入,布倫德里特也是受益者之一。

????他并不抱怨鉆探公司要求更多的證據。“人人都想要科學的證據,這是常識。他們不想陷入每當大家高喊狼來了的時候就必須關停所有處置井的境地。”

????但他表示,等到證據最終到來(布倫德里特預期在一兩個月內)的時候,處置井運營商需要迅速作出反應。“如果我們獲得的數據確實把注水井和地震聯系在一起,而他們沒有任何反應,那我們只有拿出干草叉和火把了。”(財富中文網)

????譯者:葉寒

????In a recent update to an article Ellsworth published last July in Science (paywall), he and two colleagues noted that that the rate of quakes (3.0 and larger) in the central and eastern U.S. has multiplied to about a hundred a year during 2010-2013, coinciding with the increase in fracking, which requires disposal wells. This compares with an average of 20 quakes a year from 1970-2000.

????In closely studied cases where disposal wells are the suspected culprit, a shutdown of the well -- or even a reduction in the rate of water being injected underground -- has ended the earthquakes.

????After the string of tremors around Azle hit double figures -- "Another day, another earthquake in North Texas," read one recent Star-Telegram headline -- Brundrett persuaded the Railroad Commission to convene a town hall meeting at the local high school on Jan. 2. About 900 angry residents showed up, calling for the injection wells to be shut down immediately.

????They booed and hooted as Commissioner David Porter refused to respond to questions, insisting that he was there only to listen. "That pissed off everybody from the beginning," says Brundrett.

????The Texas commission has long viewed its relationship with the energy industry as equal parts promoter and regulator. Commissioners regularly win election with heavy financial support from oil and gas interests. Porter's official biography describes him as a CPA who built a successful practice in Midland, "providing accounting and tax services to oil and gas producers, royalty owners, oil field service companies, and other small businesses and individuals."

????"The Railroad Commission is concerned and involved, but we have to base our actions on sound science and proven facts, not speculation that appears in some newspaper articles and some blogs," he told the crowd in an opening statement.

????After two hours, local media reported, Porter ended the meeting, then bolted out the back door, escorted by state troopers. Afterward, the Railroad Commission announced it would be seeking more data on the problem and hire an in-house earthquake expert. (Porter's staff said he would have no further comment.)

????Those unwilling to wait rode down to Austin on Tuesday to demand immediate action.

????Brundrett declined to join the bus trip. He believes the quakes show a clear pattern, but acknowledges the need for additional study.

????"I'm pro oil and gas," he says. "When people turn their light switch on, they want their lights to come on. The energy has to come from somewhere. It's just sometimes being done in a bad way or in the wrong place." Like many residents in the Barnett Shale region, Brundrett has received income from leasing land to drilling companies.

????He doesn't blame the drillers for demanding more proof. "It's common sense that everyone wants the scientific evidence. They don't want to get into the position of having to shut down everything any time everybody cries wolf."

????But when it arrives -- within a month or two, Brundrett expects -- he says the disposal-well operators will need to respond quickly. "If we get the data, and it does indeed link the injection wells to earthquakes, and they fail to do anything, then it's time to get out the pitchforks and torches."

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