????航空業咨詢公司Brian Foley Associates總裁、行業分析師布萊恩?弗雷說：“目前有很多好消息，但我們不能被這些短期內的利好消息蒙住雙眼。從投資者的立場來看，所有事情似乎確實在向好的方向發展，但別忘了這是一個周期性的行業。”

????雖然波音又一年穩坐全球最大飛機制造商的交椅，但空中客車在去年很有可能獲得了更多訂單（別忘了，空中客車到上周仍然沒有公布官方數字，但業內消息人士卻非常有信心），這將使波音的歐洲競爭對手建立起可靠的長期競爭優勢。而且，雖然波音的商用業務一派繁榮，但它的國防業務卻很讓人頭痛，至少在出口方面確實如此。它的C-17軍用運輸機生產線計劃在2015年關閉。去年，由于韓國選擇了洛克希德馬丁公司（Lockheed Martin）的新型F-35“閃電”戰斗機，使得波音失去了60架F-15的訂單，損失了約70億美元。此外，波音也丟掉了巴西政府價值45億美元的訂單。最終巴西政府決定采購瑞典薩博公司（Saab）的噴氣式戰斗機，而沒有選擇波音的F/A-18。

????分析師指出，在商業領域，波音公司也面臨著發展緩慢的局面。雖然新一代商用飛機銷售態勢良好，但這些飛機的交付還需要幾年時間。與此同時，當航空公司不斷更新產品，力圖做到最新最好時，新機型的出現總會導致現有機型銷量滑坡。在奧本海默公司（Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.）11月份發布的一份研究報告中，分析師耶爾?雷納爾和威廉?李指出，“波音公司近四分之一的總利潤來自777客機。然而，777X機型的發布似乎使777客機陷入了困境。777X機型開始服役還需要再過6-7年，在此之前777機型不會停止生產。然而，777客機目前只有3.3年的訂單儲備。”

????然后是最近的勞工糾紛處理問題，蒂爾集團（Teal Group）的阿布拉菲亞說。批評家們認為，波音公司是通過暴力強權，逼迫工人們接受了不公正的待遇。波音公司威脅工人們，寧可花費重金將生產廠址（連同工作機會）一起遷到另外一個州，也不愿在退休金福利問題上作出讓步。“他們對供應商一直采取強硬態度，對待工人也是如此。這種處理方式最終會反過來損害公司利益，而一旦發生，破壞性將是巨大的”，阿布拉菲亞說。“波音公司的勞工合同相當過分，51%的條款都是有利于公司的。這么做的結果是，公司的員工非常不滿。”

????所有這些情況對波音公司（及其投資者）2014年的收支平衡到底會造成什么影響呢？

????弗利說：“我倒認為，波音公司的股價在2014年會繼續上漲；如果公司能交付部分飛機，同時借此取得破紀錄的現金流量，它股票的上漲趨勢會一直延續到2015年。”來自空中客車以及其它發展中的小型公司——如巴西航空工業公司（Embraer）和加拿大龐巴迪宇航公司（Bombardier Aerospace）——的競爭，在長期看來也會造成波音公司（和空中客車）市場份額的下降。波音公司2013年的訂單量雖然沒有空中客車那么充足，但在這些訂單真正交付之前，它們不會對任何一個公司的凈收益產生顯著影響。

????"There's a confluence of good news right now," says Brian Foley, President of Brian Foley Associates and aviation industry analyst. "But we can't get blinded by the extreme short term. From an investor's standpoint things do seem to be coming together very well, but it's a cyclical business."

????While Boeing remains the world's biggest planemaker for another year, Airbus very likely booked more new orders last year (again, Airbus doesn't release official numbers until next week, but industry sources are confident), putting Boeing's European rival on firm competitive ground in the long term. And though Boeing's commercial side is thriving, its defense business is taking something of a drumming, at least in terms of exports. Its C-17 military transport production line is slated to close by 2015. A potential $7 billion sale of 60 F-15s to South Korea was scrapped last year as Seoul opted to purchase Lockheed Martin's new F-35 Lightning. Around the same time, Boeing lost a $4.5 billion deal to supply Brazil with F/A-18s when the government there decided to buy Swedish Saab jets instead.

????Its commercial side could be looking at something of a slow period as well, analysts say. While Boeing's new generations of commercial jets are selling well, they won't deliver for several years. In the meantime, the existence of a new generation of aircraft often hurts the sales of existing generations, as airlines move to update their fleets to the latest and greatest. In a research report published by Oppenheimer in November, analysts Yair Reiner and William Lee note that "the launch of the 777X appears to have left the 777 program, which accounts for an estimated quarter of BA's total profit, in the lurch. The 777 needs to hold down the fort for 6-7 years until the 777X enters into service, but currently has only 3.3 years of backlog."

????And then, Teal Group's Aboulafia notes, there's the handling of the recent labor dispute, in which some critics argue Boeing strong-armed its workers into taking a raw deal by threatening to move production (and jobs) to another state at great expense rather than give up ground on pension benefits. "They've been very aggressive with suppliers and they've been very aggressive with labor, and that can come back to haunt you, that can be damaging." Aboulafia says. "This was a very aggressive labor contract, and they got what they wanted by 51%. They also got a disgruntled workforce."

????So where does all that really leave Boeing (and its investors) for the balance of 2014?

????"I'd suspect that 2014 will continue to see Boeing stock climb, and that could continue right into next year as well when they deliver some of these aircraft and record cash when that happens," Foley says. Pressure from both Airbus and from small-but-growing players like Brazil's Embraer and Canada's Bombardier Aerospace will erode Boeing's (and Airbus's) market share in the long-term. And while Boeing's 2013 order book might not be quite as full as Airbus's, that won't impact either company's bottom line significantly until those aircraft are delivered.