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2014年,波音能否飛得更高

2014年,波音能否飛得更高

Clay Dillow 2014-01-14
新年伊始,波音公司在與工會的交鋒中拿下一場關鍵的勝利,2013年總交貨量也超過了競爭對手空中客車,公司股價更是創下52周新高。但是,僅僅這些短期的利好消息就能夠確保波音公司在2014年繼續振翅高飛嗎?
????2013年11月18日,第13屆迪拜國際航空展上,波音公司展出的波音777X型飛機。

????還有哪家公司能像波音(Boeing)一樣能在2014年擁有這么好的開局?新年的第一周,這家位于芝加哥的飛機制造商在與工會的交鋒中獲得了一場關鍵勝利,2013年完成的交貨量也超過了其歐洲競爭對手,而且,它還宣布拿下了印度廉價航空公司SpiceJet價值44億美元的訂單。后者向波音訂購了42架更節能的新型737 MAX客機。公允地講,波音稱至少其中一部分訂單將計入2013年的訂單數,作為波音目前未完成的訂單。但無論如何,這都算是很不錯的新年開局。

????弗吉尼亞州費爾法克斯航空業分析公司Teal Group副總裁、分析師理查德?埃博拉非亞說:“我認為,這是波音公司發展勢頭極好的四個月。如果你把這種勢頭只局限在年初,那你就忽視了關鍵的線索——777X在十一月份的強勢發布。所以,這是很了不起的幾個月。”

????進入2014年,波音在全球商用航空領域似乎占有格外突出的優勢。周一發布的數據顯示,波音去年的交貨量連續第二年超過了競爭對手空中客車(Airbus),共生產648架飛機,創歷史記錄(空中客車尚未正式公布最終數據。但有業內消息稱,空中客車生產的數量超過625架,但并未達到波音的648架)。波音公司的股票也上漲至52周以來的新高。787夢想客機也度過了初期的成長痛苦期,進入成熟生產階段。它的新型客機剛剛推出便斬獲大批訂單。而且埃博拉非亞補充道,推遲強行分段減支(美國政府實行的強制削減政府預算政策——譯注),消除了波音公司國防業務所面臨的一個嚴重威脅,讓它躲過了一劫。

????這并不是波音公司近期躲過的唯一一次劫難。自十一月份777X上市以來,全球運營商的訂單總額已超過1,000億美元。波音777X是它主要寬體客機波音777的升級版本,效率更高。波音777是目前市場上最大的雙引擎商用客機,也是這家公司的主要收入來源。然而,波音與公司機械師聯盟就未來退休金福利和其他問題的爭議卻對波音能否在其西雅圖制造中心順利完成777X的生產構成了一定的威脅。

????上周五,這個問題終于得到解決。工會的一次關鍵投票對波音公司有利,保證了777X和737 MAX的生產繼續在華盛頓州完成。波音737 MAX在傳統單通道客機基礎上進行了升級,更加高效。此次交易不僅可以保證波音利用其經驗最豐富、最成熟的生產設施開發新型商用客機,也可以減少未來因勞資問題影響到737 MAX和777X交付的風險(兩者分別于2017年和2020年交貨)。而且,這個消息也可以讓消費者(現在他們有另外一種選擇——空中客車的A350 - 1000,預計于2017年投入使用)和股東安心。贏得與工會組織的一次交鋒,強勁的訂單,以及在2014年有利的航空市場地位,這一切都預示著波音會在新的一年所向披靡。

????Has anyone had a better start to 2014 than Boeing? One week into the new year, the Chicago-based aircraft manufacturer has won a critical labor battle, bested its European rival in total airframe deliveries for the year just completed, and announced a fresh $4.4 billion, 42-plane order for its new, fuel-efficient 737 MAX airliner from Indian budget carrier SpiceJet. To be fair, Boeing says at least part of that order is included in its 2013 order numbers and therefore is already part of its existing backlog, but still -- not a bad way to kick off the new year.

????"I think it's been a very good four-month streak," Richard Aboulafia, VP of analysis at Fairfax, Va.,-based aerospace industry analysis firm Teal Group, says of Boeing (BA). "You're burying the lead if you're confining this to just the start of the year -- November saw the very strong launch of the 777X. So it's been a fantastic few months."

????Going into 2014, Boeing looks particularly well-positioned within the global commercial aerospace industry. Numbers released Monday show that for the second year running Boeing outdelivered chief rival Airbus, producing a record 648 jetliners last year (Airbus hasn't officially released its final numbers yet, but industry sources report it produced more than 625 but less than Boeing's 648). Its stock is hovering around its 52-week high. The 787 Dreamliner is past its early growing pains and into mature production. Its new aircraft are showing strong orders right off the bat. And, Aboulafia adds, it dodged a bullet as the deferral of sequestration has eliminated a serious threat to its defense business.

????That's not the only bullet the company has dodged of late. Since the November launch of the 777X -- an updated, more efficient version of Boeing's mainstay 777 wide-body airliner, the largest twin-engine commercial jet on the market and a major profit-driver for Boeing -- carriers around the globe have booked orders totaling more than $100 billion. But a dispute with its machinists' union over future pension benefits and other issues briefly threatened Boeing's ability to competitively manufacture the 777X at its primary Seattle-area manufacturing hub.

????Last Friday, that issue was resolved when a key union vote broke in Boeing's favor, ensuring that manufacturing of both the 777X and the 737 MAX -- a more efficient revamp of Boeing's legacy single-aisle passenger jet -- will remain in Washington state. The deal ensures not only that Boeing can develop the core of its new commercial jet lineup at its most experienced and tested manufacturing facilities, but it vastly reduces the risk of labor disruptions as Boeing looks to deliver the 737 MAX and 777X in 2017 and 2020, respectively. That's reassuring to customers (who now have another option in the Airbus A350-1000, slated to enter service in 2017) and to shareholders; riding a successful labor battle, a strong order book, and a favorable aerospace marketplace into 2014, Boeing looks pretty invincible.

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