????給來年做預測總是件冒險的事，因為它本質上是建立在讀者的美好意愿上，而更要命的是，讀者們往往又是健忘的。

????有時候，事情的發(fā)展甚至會超出最富想象力的預測。預測瑪麗?芭拉將繼任通用汽車（GM）的首席執(zhí)行官相對而言難度不大，盡管12月份爆出這一消息的時機出乎了大多數(shù)人的意料。

????但是誰能想到底特律“鐵銹地帶”（指從前工業(yè)繁盛，今已衰落的一些地區(qū)——譯注）的高管之一，福特（Ford）的艾倫?穆拉利會成為科技巨頭微軟（Microsoft）的領袖候選人？尤其是福特在MyTouch儀表盤的控制系統(tǒng)上采用微軟技術引發(fā)一系列麻煩之后。

????我們不妨把這些告誡謹記于心，然后再來預測一下汽車界在接下來一年中將會發(fā)生的事件——有一些是認真嚴肅的判斷，另一些則本著“一切皆有可能”的精神。

????Making predictions for the year ahead is always a hazardous business, by its nature dependent on the good will of readers, not to mention short memories.

????Stuff happens that confounds even the most imaginative forecasts. Predicting that Mary Barra was headed for the CEO job at GM (GM, Fortune 500) was relatively pothole-free, although the December timing took most people by surprise.

????But who would have guessed that one of Detroit's Rust Belt executives, Ford's Alan Mulally, would emerge as the leading candidate to run tech giant Microsoft (MSFT,Fortune 500) -- especially after all the trouble Ford (F, Fortune 500) has had integrating Microsoft technology in its MyTouch instrument panel control system?

????With those caveats in mind, here are some guesses about what awaits MotorWorld in the year ahead -- some serious, others in an "anything can happen" spirit.