????下一個(gè)泡沫

????藝術(shù)品

????去年，本已有些膨脹的藝術(shù)品市場(chǎng)又被泵入大量空氣。首先，弗朗西斯?培根的一幅畫作（或者說一幅三聯(lián)畫）以1.428億美元售出，創(chuàng)下了有史以來單幅作品的拍賣新紀(jì)錄，足足比2008年售出的另一幅出自培根之手的三聯(lián)畫高出了165%。接著，杰夫?昆斯的一尊狗雕塑作品創(chuàng)下了在世藝術(shù)家作品的最高拍賣價(jià)：5,800萬美元。這兩起拍賣發(fā)生在佳士得拍賣行(Christie)舉辦的同一場(chǎng)晚間拍賣會(huì)上，它或許意味著以下兩件事之一：這種大肆炒作預(yù)示著各路收藏家即將爭(zhēng)相出售藝術(shù)品，泡沫破滅指日可待；抑或，這就是大肆炒作而已。藝術(shù)品市場(chǎng)今年崩盤的幾率微乎其微。這年頭，有太多的億萬富豪需要填充太多的墻壁。概率：14%

????學(xué)生貸款

????目前尚未償還的學(xué)生貸款余額預(yù)計(jì)高達(dá)1,500億美元，如此巨款猶如千鈞重?fù)?dān)，壓得應(yīng)屆和畢業(yè)已經(jīng)若干年的往屆大學(xué)畢業(yè)生苦不堪言。于數(shù)百萬美國(guó)年輕人而言，這是一個(gè)真真切切的問題。但它是一個(gè)泡沫嗎？不完全是——這至少是按歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)評(píng)判的結(jié)論。回望2006年和2007年，學(xué)生貸款市場(chǎng)協(xié)會(huì)(Sallie Mae，又稱薩利美)發(fā)行，由各大銀行交易的學(xué)生貸款支持證券( SLABS)價(jià)值近1,350億美元。如今，許多銀行已經(jīng)徹底放棄了學(xué)生貸款業(yè)務(wù)，目前的SLABS交易額僅為11億美元。這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)在報(bào)端引發(fā)熱議——相較于泡沫泛濫的時(shí)期，它幾乎連一個(gè)漣漪都算不上。盡管如此，估計(jì)會(huì)有許多媒體人（和一些自詡的媒體人）把它稱為泡沫。亞倫?索爾金將其寫入《新聞編輯室》(The Newsroom)劇本的幾率為：75%。

????會(huì)議

????首先要說明的是，有一個(gè)會(huì)議就叫“泡沫會(huì)議”(BubbleConf)。它的受眾群體是企業(yè)家，但更能說明問題的是，它之所以誕生，是因?yàn)槠鋭?chuàng)始人需要簡(jiǎn)單地“組織一場(chǎng)會(huì)議”。據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局（the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics）預(yù)計(jì)，年?duì)I收額已經(jīng)高達(dá)大約800億美元的會(huì)議及會(huì)展業(yè)將在未來10年擴(kuò)張44%（當(dāng)然，《財(cái)富》自己也主辦好幾場(chǎng)會(huì)議）。但這股會(huì)議浪潮的最佳代言人莫過于美國(guó)規(guī)劃協(xié)會(huì)(American Planning Association)將于2014年在亞特蘭大舉辦的集會(huì)——從字面上看，這是一場(chǎng)旨在規(guī)劃更多會(huì)議的會(huì)議。精彩電視臺(tái)(Bravo)是否將圍繞這場(chǎng)會(huì)議之會(huì)議的出席者開發(fā)一個(gè)真人秀節(jié)目？幾乎確鑿無疑：97%。

????The next bubbles

????Art

????Plenty of air was pumped into the already tumescent market for fine art last year. First a painting (or one set of three) by Francis Bacon sold for $142.8 million, the most ever paid for a work at auction and a 165% spike in price from when the last Bacon triptych sold, in 2008. Then a dog sculpture by Jeff Koons fetched $58 million, the most ever paid for a work by a living artist. That this happened on the same night, in the same Christie's auction, could mean one of two things: rampant speculation portending the end of a bubble as everyone scrambles to sell, or just plain rampant speculation. Odds that the art market collapses this year? Only slight. Too many billionaires these days need to fill too many walls: 14%

????Student Loans

????There is an estimated $150 billion in outstanding student loans weighing down most recent and not-so-recent college graduates. For millions of young Americans, it's a genuine problem. But is it a bubble? Not really -- at least by the standards of history. Look back to 2006 and 2007, when banks traded nearly $135 billion worth of Sallie Mae's student-loan asset-backed securities (known as SLABS). Today many banks are out of the student-loan biz altogether, and just $1.1 billion in SLAB trading makes waves in the papers -- barely a ripple compared with far frothier times. Still, count on many in the media (and pretend media) to call it that. Odds that Aaron Sorkin will write it into the plot of The Newsroom:75%

????Conferences

????First thing first: There is a conference named BubbleConf; it is for entrepreneurs, but more telling, it was born out of its founders' need to simply "organize a conference." The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the convention and event industry, which already generates an estimated $80 billion a year, to expand by 44% over the next decade --Fortune, of course, has a few conferences of its own. But nothing captures the conference proliferation quite like the American Planning Association's 2014 gathering in Atlanta -- which, literally, is a conference for planning more conferences. What are the odds that Bravo will develop a reality show around the people at the conference of conferences? A near-sure thing: 97%.