????眾籌公司迎來大年

????借貸俱樂部(LendingClub)將成功上市，應該不會出現太大的波折。但過不了不久，它將感受到一股強烈的反沖氣流。如果貸款違約率因經濟不景氣而上升，貸款人現在獲得的天價回報將隨之大幅回落，從目前大約9%的平均收益率下挫至5%左右。傳統的貸款機構也可能抱怨來自眾籌平臺的競爭壓力，他們會說這種點對點(P2P)的融資方式正在削弱美國公司經典的構筑渠道(即小企業貸款）的長期生存能力。但儲貸協會(S&L)和點對點融資平臺依然會安然度過今年，盡管后者將面臨更加嚴格的監管。借貸俱樂部在2014年啟動IPO的概率是：85%。

????Crowdfunding's big year

????LendingClub will go public in a highly successful, drama-less event. Then will come the blowback. If loan default rates rise because of a stumble in the economy, then the sky-high returns that lenders are getting now may well tumble -- from the current average 9% or so to about 5%. Traditional lending institutions are also likely to grumble about the competition, claiming that peer-to-peer funders are crippling the long-term viability of that classic American company-builder: the small-business loan. But somehow both the S&Ls and P2Ps survive the year, albeit with increased regulation for the latter. Odds of a LendingClub IPO in 2014: 85%.