????奧巴馬醫改計劃的成本將爆炸性增長

????支支吾吾了幾個月后，奧巴馬政府終于承認，《可負擔醫療法案》( Affordable Care Act)的長期成本將是最初預測的兩倍。至今年秋天，國會預算辦公室將根據奧巴馬醫改計劃，把2023年按年度計算的聯邦開支預測值翻一番，從1,340億美元上調至2,700億美元。醫保開支為什么會驟增？其一，這項計劃將無法吸引到足夠多青壯工人的參與，從精算的角度看難以延續——美國精算學會(American Academy of Actuaries)對此表示關切。其次，采礦和零售等低工資行業的公司將逃離醫保業務。比預期更多的公司將放棄醫保計劃，從而促使工人成群結隊地進入根據奧巴馬醫保計劃設立的醫保交易市場。

????概率: 70%。

????Obamacare cost will explode

????After months of hemming and hawing, the Obama administration admits that the long-term cost of the Affordable Care Act will be twice what was originally predicted. By this fall the Congressional Budget Office will double its estimates for the annualized cost of federal spending on Obamacare in 2023, from $134 billion to around $270 billion. The reasons for the jump? First, the program will fail to attract a sufficient number of young, healthy workers to sustain it on an actuarial basis -- a concern raised by the American Academy of Actuaries. Second, companies in low-wage industries from mining to retail will flee the health care business. Many more than expected will drop their plans, pushing droves of workers into the Obamacare exchanges.

????Odds: 70%.