????投資者維權行動將加劇

????2013年，維權投資者攻破了許多上市公司的大門，哪怕蘋果(Apple)、寶潔(Procter & Gamble)和微軟( Microsoft)這類最有價值的公司也未能幸免。2014年，他們很可能變得更加大膽。這是因為維權投資者的業績遠遠超過了標準普爾指數(S&P)——根據對沖基金研究公司(Hedge Fund Research)提供的數據，在2013年前3個季度，這些投資者的收益率高達25%，完勝標準普爾指數（19%）——從而又吸引了數十億美元。但在這么多維權活動之后，哪些公司將成為下一個目標呢？不妨考慮以下4種可能性：

????納爾遜?佩爾茨將向沃爾瑪發難。佩爾茨向來喜歡跟著名的消費類股票【亨氏(H.J. Heinz)、卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)和百事( PepsiCo)】較勁，當然也不會被全球最大的零售商嚇倒。沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)目前的股價顯示投資者期望值降低，佩爾茨或許認為一個良機將出現在董明倫2月份接任CEO的時候。概率: 20%

????比爾?阿克曼將向卡特彼勒發難。阿克曼因一些失敗【彭尼公司(J.C. Penney)和塔吉特百貨(Target)】或有爭議的投資【康寶萊(Herbalife)】而受到關注，但他也通過重組加拿大太平洋鐵路公司( Canadian Pacific Railway)等B2B企業獲得了良好的投資回報。卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）曾經是2010年道瓊斯指數表現最好的個股，但在2013年，這家公司成為表現最差、被大量賣空的股票之一。概率: 20%

????丹?勒布將瞄上思科公司。勒布從來不怵高科技公司；他最出名的戰役就是通過震醒昏昏欲睡的雅虎公司(Yahoo)賺得了10億美元收益。思科公司(Cisco)的業績一直非常出色，但股票卻表現乏力，主要原因是投資者擔心好消息不能持續下去。思科公司CEO約翰?錢伯斯曾表示，他計劃在一至三年內下臺。概率: 15%

????卡爾?伊坎將瞄上埃克森美孚。伊坎喜歡跟能源類公司較勁。他曾脅迫CVR能源公司(CVR Energy)拆分，最近還說服越洋公司(Transocean)派發特別股息并削減成本。沒錯，沃倫?巴菲特最近開始投資埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)，但著名的賣空者吉姆?查諾斯也正在做空這家公司。目前的股價顯示，投資者看跌這家公司的利潤預期。 概率: 10%。

????Investor activism will intensify

????Activist investors in 2013 stormed the gates of even the most valuable companies -- Apple(AAPL, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT,Fortune 500) -- and they're likely to grow still bolder in 2014. That's because activists far outperformed the S&P (earning 25%, vs. 19% through 2013's first three quarters, says Hedge Fund Research), attracting more billions to wield. But after so much activity, who's left to go after? Consider four possibilities:

????Nelson Peltz will take on Wal-Mart.Peltz likes moving in on famous consumer stocks (H.J. Heinz, Kraft Foods, PepsiCo) and wouldn't be intimidated by even the world's largest retailer. Wal-Mart's (WMT, Fortune 500) share price suggests lowered investor expectations, and Peltz might see an opening when Doug McMillon takes over as CEO in February. Odds: 20%

????Bill Ackman will take on Caterpillar.Ackman has drawn attention for investments that have failed (J.C. Penney, Target) or been controversial (Herbalife), but he's done well by shaking up big B2B outfits like Canadian Pacific Railway. Cat's (CAT, Fortune 500)stock, the Dow's best performer in 2010, has been among its weakest and most heavily shorted in 2013. Odds: 20%

????Dan Loeb will take on Cisco.Loeb isn't afraid of technology; he famously rattled Yahoo's cage and made $1 billion. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) has been performing excellently, but the stock has lagged in large part because investors worry the good news can't last. CEO John Chambers has said he plans to step down in one to three years. Odds: 15%

????Carl Icahn will take on Exxon Mobil.Icahn is on a roll with energy companies. He got CVR Energy to break itself up and recently persuaded Transocean to pay a special dividend and cut costs. Yes, Warren Buffett recently invested in Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) -- but famed short-seller Jim Chanos is betting against it. The share price reflects shrinking profit expectations. Odds: 10%.