????實際一點吧：在硅谷之外，誰會愿意戴著這么個玩意兒出門？

????到2016年，穿戴式計算機市值可能會達到60億美元的規模。但目前，這個領域尚處于口水多，干貨少的階段。

????大部分之前試用過谷歌（Google）眼鏡的人都認為：谷歌眼鏡有很大潛力，但還需要大幅改進。比如，在語音識別命令功能上，谷歌眼鏡還有不少弊端；而且，它的外觀設計與《星際迷航》（Star Trek）中的道具太過相似。與此同時，人們對其它可穿戴配件，如三星（Samsung）Galaxy Gear智能手表的接受度也不高。這些設備在功能方面還很有限。以三星為例，Galaxy Gear智能手表僅適用于一小部分手機——當然，還都是三星品牌的。而且在健身市場之外，這些設備也都因價格太高而毫無競爭力。【據《紐約時報》（New York Times）報道，谷歌眼鏡將在今年晚些時候上市，零售價會在250美元到600美元之間。】

????消費電子產品公司Roku首席執行官安東尼?伍德對這種可穿戴硬件的態度也說不上熱情。他說：“我覺得手表尤其怪異——如果我還是個小孩子，說不定會買一個來戴著玩”。

????弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）分析師JP?高恩德認為，可穿戴設備正在經歷“炒作泡沫”。高德恩將這個市場與1999年的因特網相比較。他說：“找到真正與因特網相關的商業模式之前，很多的嘗試都以失敗告終，比如Pets.com。”他認為穿戴式計算機企業正在經歷相同的狀況。“這些企業中很少有優秀的商業模式，大部分消費者也沒有購買這類產品的需求。”

????只有在健身行業，可穿戴設備還算比較多見。包括耐克（Nike）、可穿戴設備公司Fitbit和Jawbone在內，至少有10家公司都出售一種腕帶，它們能跟蹤記錄人們在做不同活動（比如跑步或睡覺）時的各項身體指標。高恩德承認：“2013年的健身行業一片混亂。”他認為這些公司的“企業對消費者”（B2C）商業模式市場不大，容量也很有限。“這種模式潛在的消費者只有健身狂人、超重人士，以及‘量化生活達人’。”這里的量化生活達人指的是那些著了魔似的記錄自己的步數、睡眠及其它活動的人，這種“量化生活”已形成一種趨勢。

????可穿戴技術遇冷或許只是因為B2C這種商業模式不適合？Box公司CEO亞倫?萊維在去年下半年試用谷歌眼鏡之后，對它也是反應平平。在他看來，谷歌眼鏡的營銷策略完全大錯特錯。他認為，谷歌眼鏡應該被重新定位到工業或企業領域：“大家可以想像一下，這種成本極低又能解放雙手的電腦技術在醫療行業會發揮多么大的作用；還可以想想，它們能會為生產型企業和修理發動機的人帶來多么大的方便。”

????或許，只有當極客一族的人數足夠多時，谷歌眼鏡的前景才能有所改善。（財富中文網）

????譯者：朱毓芬/汪皓???

????Let's get real: Who would want to be caught wearing this out of Silicon Valley?

????Wearable computers may be a market worth as much as $6 billion by 2016, but for now it's a category with more hype and little substance.

????Early users of Google (GOOG) Glass device, often agree on one thing: It's got great potential but needs a lot of work. Voice recognition for commands is still buggy, and the industrial design resembles a Star Trek prop. Meanwhile, attempts at other wearable accessories like theSamsung Galaxy Gear smartwatch haven't been well-received. The devices are still pretty limited in terms of what users can do, and in Samsung's case, the device only works with a small number of phones -- all Samsung (SSNLF), of course. And, outside the fitness market, few devices are priced low enough to be competitive. (Google Glass could retail for between $250 and $600 when it arrives later this year, according to the New York Times.)

????Anthony Wood, CEO of Roku, is less than enthusiastic about the hardware category. "Watches in particular strike me as being particularly geeky -- something I'd have wanted to play with as a kid," he says.

????Forrester Research analyst JP Gownder says wearables are experiencing a "hype bubble," comparing the market to the Internet of 1999. "It took many failed experiments like Pets.com before we found real business models associated with the Internet," says Gownder. He says the same goes for wearable computing companies. "Most of them don't have good business models, and most consumers don't know why they'd be buying these things."

????Where wearables aren't scarce is fitness. No less than 10 different vendors, including Nike (NKE), Fitbit, and Jawbone have wristbands that track different activities like running and sleep. "In fitness, 2013 was kind of a mess," admits Gownder, who argues their business-to-consumer (B2C) approach is a small, limited market. "It's people who are fitness fanatics, people who are overweight, and people who are quantified selfers," referring to the trend of people obsessively tracking their steps, sleep, and other movements.

????But perhaps it's the B2C part that's the ill fit? Box CEO Aaron Levie, underwhelmed when he tried Glass late last year, argues the marketing around it is all wrong. He thinks it should be repositioned for the industrial or enterprise worlds. Says Levie: "Think about what very low-cost, hands-free computing can do for the health care industry, or what it could do for production, for somebody who's doing repairs of engines."

????Maybe enough of those geeks could make the view of Google Glass a little more rose-colored.