????與往常一樣，今年的消費電子展（Consumer Electronics Show）依然是一場科技盛宴，充滿了各種光怪陸離的產品。而與此同時，今年在拉斯維加斯舉辦的大會，也為投資者和華爾街提供了一個選擇機會，給這個年收入達萬億美元的行業把把脈。

????2014年，消費電子行業的心跳水平高于往年。據經濟學家肖恩?杜布拉維奇預測，未來幾個月，科技收入將下降——年比減少1%，至1.055萬億美元，將對增長預期產生重大影響。此次展會便由杜布拉維奇所在的協會主辦。（杜布拉維奇認為，收入減少應該歸因于平板設備和智能手機平均銷售價格的下降，與全球減少總體科技開支無關。忠告：平板設備與智能手機目前占全球科技銷售額的43%。）

????可以肯定地說，今年對于能夠創造新業務的創新理念的需求將尤為強烈。

????此次貿易展于周二正式開幕，不過早在周日，媒體就提前收到了主辦方提供的此次參展商品的簡介。與往常一樣，這些設備有不少閃光點，但卻不足以為整個行業指明未來的發展方向。什么是今年展會的熱門展品？到目前為止仍不清楚，這一點與往年也有很大不同。

????當然，這并不意味著今年的展品都平淡無奇。施文公司（Schwinn）推出CycleNav“智能自行車”導航儀，對于這家歷史悠久的美國公司來說，此舉可謂一次華麗的轉身。太陽能設備制造商WakaWaka的太陽能充電展品也非常新奇。音頻設備制造商Clear View Audio的“隱形”揚聲器給我留下了深刻印象。然而，總體而言，今年參展的商品都不足以改變整個行業的發展方向。

????今年大家熱議的重點是“可穿戴設備”市場，其中包括聯網的手表、數字健康監控設備和類似的“智能設備”。（看，《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）的喬安娜?斯特恩還提出了藍牙牙刷的創意！）然而，這個新興市場仍處于混亂狀態，也沒有明確的定義——比如，到底什么才是智能手表？人們能用它來做什么？——而今年各大廠商將如何尋求突破？所有這一切我們都無從得知。多年以來，索尼（Sony）和其他電子設備制造商一直在提供這類設備，卻始終未能抓住消費者的心。

????我在此次展會上確實發現了一些非常有趣（令人意外的是也非常時尚）的可穿戴設備，然而這些設備并沒有特別的創新。它們都是通過藍牙與智能手機連接，能夠顯示佩戴者健康方面的數據等。這些產品肯定能受到疑病癥患者的歡迎，但要想擴大市場，恐怕會面臨更大的挑戰。

????周一的“媒體日”上，各大科技巨頭相繼召開新聞發布會。例如，LG和三星（Samsung）計劃推出一系列“超高清”或4K電視。（依舊是2013年的老話題！）毫無疑問，索尼、夏普（Sharp）和松下（Panasonic）肯定會還擊，或許會公布奪回昔日榮光的計劃。

????同時，我會一直尋找今年的“金羊毛”（源自希臘神話，指人人都希望得到的珍貴寶物——譯注）。但到目前為止，從我的所見所聞來看，或許我得等到2015年了。（財富中文網）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????This year's Consumer Electronics Show, as it is every year, is typically a celebration of technology and all things nerdy. But the Las Vegas mega-conference also presents a choice opportunity for investors and Wall Street to take the pulse of a $1 trillion-a-year business.

????In 2014, the industry's baseline heart rate matters more than ever. Technology revenue is expected to decline in the coming months -- down 1% year over year to $1.055 trillion, according to economist Shawn DuBravac, who works for the association that puts on the show -- a burden that could weigh heavily on growth prospects. (DuBravac noted that the fall-off in revenue came thanks to a decrease in the average selling price of tablets and smartphones, and not due to some global pull-back in overall technology spending. The caveat: Tablets and smartphones now represent 43% of global technology sales.)

????It's safe to say that this year, innovative ideas for new lines of business are in especially high demand.

????The trade show officially opens on Tuesday, but on Sunday members of the press were given a sneak preview of things to come. The gadgets glimmered as usual, but there lacked a clear way forward for the industry. The hot gadget at this year's show? So far it's unclear, a departure from years past.

????That's not to say that the gadgets I saw weren't cool. Schwinn's bike CycleNav "Smart Bike" Navigator was a departure for the longstanding American company. WakaWaka's solar-powered gadgets were novel. And Clear View Audio's "invisible" audio speaker certainly left an impression. On the whole, though, nothing on display promised to change the course of the industry.

????The buzz this year is centered on the "wearables" market, which encompasses connected watches, digital health monitoring devices, and similar "smart" items. (Look, there's the Wall Street Journal's Joanna Stern with a Bluetooth toothbrush!) But this budding market is rather disjointed and fairly undefined -- what is a smartwatch, exactly, and what is one supposed to do with it? -- and it's unclear how this year will be any different. For years, Sony (SNE) and other electronics manufacturers have offered such devices, but none of them took hold with consumers.

????I did spot several interesting (and surprisingly fashionable) wearables, but none were particularly innovative. All of them connect to your smartphone via Bluetooth and spout out data about some aspect of your health. That's desirable if you are a hypochondriac, but it's more challenging to make the case for the broader market.

????At CES Monday, many of technology's largest companies will hold their own press conferences, in a back-to-back format known as "Press Day." For example, LG and Samsung are set to reveal a bunch of "ultra high definition," or 4K, televisions. (Soooo 2013.) Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic will no doubt return the volley, and perhaps reveal how they plan to recapture lost glory days. (Ahem.)

????In the meantime, I will keep searching for this year's golden fleece. From what I have seen and heard so far, though, I may have to wait till 2015.