????互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂之后12年的大部分時間里，思科公司（Cisco）一直是科技行業(yè)的領(lǐng)頭羊。它的股票表現(xiàn)很大程度都在跟著納斯達(dá)克走?？梢哉f思科生產(chǎn)的交換機(jī)和路由器很大程度上構(gòu)造了今天這個互聯(lián)程度越來越高的世界的神經(jīng)系統(tǒng)。所以思科公司的訂單也就具有了提前反映廣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的劇烈波動的能力。由于思科公司經(jīng)常在收益電話會議上發(fā)表對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法，因此它還贏得了華爾街的重視。

????比如2008年1月，思科公司注意到來自汽車制造企業(yè)和金融機(jī)構(gòu)的訂單下降了，不久之后金融危機(jī)和大蕭條即席卷而來。2009年3月，在大蕭條最嚴(yán)重的時候，思科又注意到經(jīng)濟(jì)即將觸底反彈，因為許多客戶開始趨于穩(wěn)定，說明最壞的時候正在過去。

????到了2009年，思科在硅谷的影響里已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及20世紀(jì)90年代，但它仍然被奉為“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的脊梁”，因為它是全球最大的交換機(jī)和路由器銷售商。即便如此，一年后，思科也開始面臨艱難的局面，公司的股價在2010年4月一度達(dá)到每股27美元后開始一路走低。

????不光如此，思科的走勢也已經(jīng)不再緊跟納斯達(dá)克。從2010年春到現(xiàn)在，思科股價已經(jīng)下跌21%，同期納斯達(dá)克綜指則上漲了59%，思科從業(yè)界的領(lǐng)頭羊變成一只“病羊”。這主要是受低端市場競爭激烈的影響，此外軟件驅(qū)動型網(wǎng)絡(luò)的崛起，以及蘋果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、Facebook等大公司紛紛自行建設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)中心也是導(dǎo)致思科一蹶不振的原因。

????這幾年來，思科一直努力想在機(jī)頂盒、軟件等市場領(lǐng)域有所斬獲，結(jié)果也是喜憂參半。最近幾年，思科公司已累計裁員8000人，經(jīng)過如此大刀闊斧的改革，終于幫助公司股價在今年8月重返26美元以上。但不久后，隨著思科公司向投資者警告收入增速有放緩跡象，公司股價也再度下跌。最近思科表示還會再裁掉4000個崗位，這不禁讓人擔(dān)心，思科到底還得裁掉多少人才能翻身。

????上周，又傳來了更令人失望的消息。思科公司稱，公司本季度收益預(yù)計將下跌9%，利潤預(yù)計為每股46美分，比華爾街的預(yù)測低了6美分。消息一出，思科股價再次應(yīng)聲下跌11%，跌至每股21美元。也就是說，現(xiàn)在思科的股價恰好鬼使神差地跌到了10年前，也就是2003年11月中旬的水平。

????思科公司最近的衰退有多大比重是由內(nèi)部原因引起的？又有多大比重是由宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素引起的？高盛（Goldman Sachs）把思科的這兩個問題精簡成了一個問題。因為從長期看來，思科還可以通過在其它市場進(jìn)行收購的方式來實現(xiàn)增長。因此更令人擔(dān)憂的問題也就不言而喻了——思科是否預(yù)見了另一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)暴正在來襲？

????思科CEO約翰?錢伯斯在上周的電話會議上指出，公司訂單從九月下旬起突然下降。聯(lián)邦政府關(guān)門帶來的影響其實并不大（政府客戶貢獻(xiàn)的收益只下降了1%），削減訂單的客戶主要來自一些新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，尤其是它們在十月份突然出現(xiàn)了顯著下降。

????錢伯斯稱：“在最近一個季度，我們主要的五個新興市場的訂單共下跌了21%，其中巴西下跌了25%，墨西哥、印度、中國都下跌了18%，俄羅斯下跌了30%?！眮碜员泵篮蜌W洲的訂單則稍有增加。即便有美國政府關(guān)門這件事的影響，公共部門的訂單數(shù)量仍然表現(xiàn)不錯，但來自服務(wù)業(yè)的訂單卻下跌了13%。

????For most of the 12 years since the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco was a true tech bellwether. Its stock performance has largely tracked the Nasdaq. Its switches and routers composed the nervous system of an increasingly connected world, and so its orders became an early warning system of sudden shifts in the broader economy. Cisco won Wall Street's respect by regularly sharing its views on the macroeconomy in its earnings conference calls.

????In January 2008, for example, Cisco (CSCO) noticed a slowdown in orders coming from automakers and financial institutions -- a warning of the financial crisis and recession that was to follow. In March 2009, in the nadir of the Great Recession, Cisco again forecast a bottom, reporting that its customers were seeing "stabilization" as the worst was passing.

????By 2009, Cisco wasn't quite the Silicon Valley luminary it was in the late 1990s, but it was still considered the Internet's backbone, the biggest seller of switches and routers. A year later, Cisco began to face tough problems. After reaching $27 a share in April 2010, Cisco began to slump.

????More than that, Cisco stopped tracking the Nasdaq. It's lost 21% of its value since the spring of 2010, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained 59%. Cisco went from bellwether to laggard, hurt by competition on the low end of its market, the rise in software-driven networks and the desire of giants like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) to build their own data centers.

????Cisco's efforts over the years to diversify into set-top boxes, software, and other markets have had mixed results. The company cut 8,000 jobs in recent years, helping to push its stock back above $26 a share in August of this year. Shortly after, the stock declined as Cisco warned investors of slower revenue growth. Cisco said then it would cut another 4,000 jobs, prompting concerns of how many cuts were needed for Cisco to turn itself around.

????Last week, the news became even more dire. The company said it expects revenue to decline 9% in the current quarter and forecast profit at 46 cents a share, or 6 cents below the Street's consensus. Since then, Cisco has lost another 11%, falling to $21 a share. That puts Cisco's stock exactly where it traded a decade ago, in mid-November 2003.

????How much of the recent declines are caused by Cisco's internal issues vs. the macroeconomic factors the company has long been able to predict? Goldman Sachs figures it breaks down to two parts Cisco problems to one part global economy. Longer term, Cisco can still turn things around by buying its way into growing markets. What's more worrisome is the suggestion of new economic headwinds: Does Cisco see another storm coming?

????In last week's conference call, CEO John Chambers pointed to a sudden slowdown in orders in late September. The impact of the government shutdown was muted, he said, (revenue from government customers declined only 1%). Rather, the decline was coming from a number of emerging economies, where orders suddenly dropped off in October.

????In the most recent quarter, Chambers said, "Our top five emerging markets declined 21%, with Brazil down 25%, Mexico down 18%, India down 18%, China down 18%, and Russia down 30%." Orders from North America and Europe rose slightly. Pubic sector revenue did well despite the U.S. government shutdown, but orders from service providers fell 13%.