????奧巴馬的反對率最近達到了55%，是他當政以來的最高點。

????一邊是一場帶來重大生命和財產損失的颶風，另一邊則是為了讓沒有醫療保險的人獲得保障而笨拙登場的一項法律，用這兩樣事物來作對比當然會顯得很可笑。但我們對《紐約時報》（New York Times ）多少還應該有點兒信心——雖然上周五這份報紙的頭條新聞極盡憤怒譴責之辭，但它從來沒說過人們應該把卡特里娜颶風造成的直接破壞和奧巴馬醫改法案的實施相提并論。

????《紐約時報》這篇報道的真正用意在于說明，未能恰當應對卡特里娜颶風災害讓布什失去了公眾的信任，而現任政府目前所面臨的危機可能讓奧巴馬的政治生涯出現類似的轉折。文章按照這樣的思路指出，如果奧巴馬政府不能扭轉局勢，醫改方面的拙劣表現將動搖奧巴馬的總統寶座，從而削弱他繼續開展工作的能力。

????這樣的假設并不是沒有道理。僅僅幾周之前，曾在《紐約時報》上撰文抨擊政府的埃茲拉?克萊因就指出，奧巴馬領導班子的形象是一個機智的21世紀政府，但匆匆啟動醫改法案讓它的形象大打折扣；而且和醫改法案相比，政府形象要重要得多。他說，就算奧巴馬醫改大獲成功，“讓人們再次相信政府能夠妥善處理大事也會變得更加困難。”

????現在就對全面實施醫改的整體影響進行可靠評估還為時過早。《紐約時報》指出，最近的兩項調查表明，多數美國人現在都不信任奧巴馬——這是其一。今天出爐的《華盛頓郵報》（Washington Post）/美國廣播公司（ABC）民調結果則為奧巴馬聲望下降提供了最新的證據——這項調查顯示，奧巴馬的反對率已經達到55%，創下了他當政以來的最高點。

????但這些調查都沒有發現，公眾對布什和奧巴馬的態度存在著結構性差異。正是因為有這樣的差異，對上述兩種情形的評判才顯得相當站不住腳，就連純粹的政治評估也是如此。

????想想看，每位總統的支持率和民眾認為美國的整體狀況是否良好有著怎樣的聯系？9.11事件和軍事打擊阿富汗初獲成功后，小布什的支持率一路飆升。但成功連任后，小布什發現自己的支持率呈長期緩慢下跌態勢。小布什支持率的下降和公眾對美國所處形勢的判斷驚人地相似。蓋洛普的調查結果就說明了這一點：???

????Of course it would be ridiculous to compare a hurricane that wrought horrendous loss of life and destruction with the botched rollout of a law that aims to extend health coverage to the uninsured. But give the New York Times a little bit of credit. The paper—in a Friday front-pager that's launched a flurry of outraged takedowns—never claimed the direct outcomes of Hurricane Katrina and the healthcare law's debut deserve to be considered side by side.

????What the Times story really posited was that the crisis this White House now faces could mark apolitical inflection in Obama's presidency similar to the way Bush lost public faith after mangling the response to the Katrina disaster. If the White House can't turn it around, this line of thinking goes, the debacle could ripple through what remains of Obama's presidency, undermining his ability to advance his agenda.

????That's not an unreasonable premise. Just a few weeks ago, Ezra Klein—author of one of those rebukes of the New York Times piece—argued that blundering Obamacare's launch dealt a serious injury to Obama's much bigger vision of a nimble, 21st Century government. Even if the law becomes a runaway success, he said, "reviving the idea that government can do big things right will be harder."

????It's too early to credibly assess the full impact of the rollout on Obama's broader program. The New York Times pointed to a pair of recent polls indicating a majority of Americans now distrust Obama—a first. Fresh evidence of Obama's skid comes today from a Washington Post/ABCpoll that finds his disapproval rating at 55 percent, his worst ever showing on that score.

????But those surveys miss a structural difference in the popular attitudes toward Bush and Obama that makes even a purely political appraisal of the two moments pretty wobbly.

????Consider how each president's approval ratings compare to the sense of whether the country, generally, is in decent shape. Bush enjoyed a burst of popularity after the September 11 attacks and the initially successful invasion of Afghanistan. But he saw his approvals begin a long, slow slide after his reelection. That loss of altitude strikingly mirrored the public perceptions about the state of the country, as measured by Gallup:??????????