????由于Facebook用戶通過移動設備登陸網站，這一點可能限制未來的增長。過去一年，Facebook移動收入增長強勁，主要是因為，一年前這項收入流還非常新，而且不重要。未來幾年，這種對比就不會那么顯著了。簡言之，經過令人驚奇的強勁增長的一年之后，Facebook的增長率可能再次進入平臺期。

????Facebook購買新的成長公司可能遭遇問題。一旦一家大公司的內生性增長停滯，常見的做法是收購高成長公司。馬克?扎克伯格清楚這一點，這就是為什么他的公司在Instagram即將成為移動設備圖片分享行業領袖之時收購這家公司的原因所在?；仡櫰饋砜?，這筆交易對Facebook比對Instagram產生的效果要好很多。

????上周，閱后即焚圖片分享網站Snapchat回絕了Facebook給的一項更慷慨的出價。這個插曲可以理解為，當今熱門初創公司不夢想著被Facebook收購，它們渴望取代Facebook，同時保持獨立。據報道，Snapchat的創始人們不愿意替扎克伯格賣命，而且公司的風投資助人也對這筆交易也沒什么興趣。

????數以千計的初創公司渴望被Facebook高價收購。但身為初創公司的Snapchats并不是其中的一員——這家罕見的公司與它不斷壯大的用戶秘密互動。在他們眼里，馬克?扎克伯格就是那個統治者。而且，如果你真正強大，你不會把自己賣給統治者，不論對方出什么價。

????Facebook繼續面臨青少年問題。埃伯斯曼在最近的業績電話會議中努力為這個問題披上積極的外衣。盡管這家公司“接近完全滲入青少年群體”，他表示，“我們的確發現我們的十幾歲少年每日用戶數量下降”。這個評論產生了事與愿違的作用，引發對青少年問題新的關注。

????另外一方面，廣告主對年齡更大的、花更多錢的人群更感興趣。另外，如果青少年歲數增長，但卻不轉移到Facebook的平臺上來，它可能會成為一個長期問題。Snapchat原本是用來幫助解決這個問題的，但交易失敗只是進一步強化了Facebook竭力跟新一代用戶扯上關系的形象。

????最后一個動向不一定是一個走弱的跡象，但值得考慮。上周，埃伯斯曼出售了價值4,300萬美元的Facebook股票，占其Facebook持股的9%，售價約47美元。雖然此項出售是預先安排交易計劃的一部分，但它同時也是過去10年由一位公司首席財務官進行的數額最高的股票出售。

????這樣預先安排交易計劃的用意是讓出售看起來不像是內部人士拋售的樣子，我懷疑這是埃伯斯曼的意圖。但關于交易的時機大家還是有話可講?？梢宰C明，沒有人能（比埃伯斯曼）對Facebook的財務狀況有更好的把握。如果你的內心感覺告訴你這是一個出售的好時機，它就不是內部交易。但這可能也是其他Facebook投資者想知曉的直覺。（財富中文網）

????譯者：楊智?????

????Since Facebook users are accessing the site on mobile devices, this could limit future growth. Facebook's mobile revenue growth in the past year has been strong partly because, a year ago, this revenue stream was so new and insiginificant. In coming years, the comparison's won't be so dramatic. In short, after a surprisingly strong year, Facebook's growth rates may plateau again.

????Facebook may have problems buying new growth. When a big company's organic growth stalls, it's common to buy fast-growing companies. Mark Zuckerberg knows this, which is why his company bought Instagram when it was looking to become a leader in mobile picture sharing. In retrospect, that deal worked out much better for Facebook than for Instagram.

????Last week, Snapchat spurned an even more generous offer from Facebook. The episode underscored how today's hot startups don't dream of being bought by Facebook, they long to supplant Facebook, which means remaining independent. Snapchat's founders were reportedly averse to working for Zuckerberg, while its VC backers weren't interested in the deal either.

????There are thousands of startups that would love to be bought by Facebook at a rich price. But the Snapchats among them – the rare beast that resonates mysteriously with an ever-growing audience – aren't among them. To them, Mark Zuckerberg is The Man. And if you're really good, you don't sell out to The Man at any price.

????Facebook continues to have a teenager problem. In the recent earnings call, Ebersman tried to put a positive spin on this. Although the company is "close to fully penetrated among teens," he said "we did see a decrease in daily users specifically among younger teens." The comments backfired, drawing new attention to the issue.

????On the one hand, advertisers are more interested in older demographics that spend more money. On the other, this could be a long-term issue if teens grow older and don't migrate to Facebook's platform. Snapchat was supposed to help resolve this problem, but the failed deal only added to the image that Facebook is struggling to relate to a new generation of users.

????One final development that is not necessarily a bearish sign but is worth considering. Last week, Ebersman sold $43 million worth of his shares, or 9% of his Facebook holdings, at around $47 a share. While the sale was part of a pre-arranged trading plan, it's also the largest stock sale by a CFO in the last decade.

????Such pre-arranged trading plans were set up to allow sales without creating the appearance of insider dumping, which I doubt was Ebersman's intention. Still, there is something to be said about the timing. Arguably, no one has a better perspective on Facebook's financial outlook. It's not insider trading if your gut is telling you this is a good time to sell. It may, however, be an instinct other Facebook investors may want to note.