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機芯供應危機引發瑞士手表業地震

機芯供應危機引發瑞士手表業地震

Lynnley Browning 2013-11-15
斯沃琪集團幾乎壟斷了精密機械機芯和其他部件的制造和銷售。然而最近,瑞士競爭委員會的一紙裁定宣布,斯沃琪有權削減出售給其他競爭對手的關鍵零部件數量,直至完全停止供應。這項裁決震動了擁有數百年歷史、價值數十億美元的瑞士手表業。

????與私人銀行和巧克力一道,豪華手表是瑞士的標識性產品。根據瑞士鐘表工業聯合會(Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry)提供的信息,瑞士手表的出口額去年增長了11%,增至創紀錄的214億瑞士法郎(約合240億美元)。富裕的亞洲和中東消費者在銷售額的占比現已在已經達到了54%。

????成立于1983年的斯沃琪集團一直被舊世界的競爭對手視為面向低收入群體的暴發戶。在它們看來,憑借時髦設計打天下的斯沃琪石英手表沾污了瑞士手表特有的神秘感。但近些年來,這家公司全力進軍奢侈手表市場,先后收購了多個傳奇品牌,比如源遠流長、可上溯至1735年的寶珀表(Blancpain),以及被大文學家司湯達和普希金引用的寶璣表(Breuguet)。此外,斯沃琪集團還收購了珠寶品牌海瑞溫斯頓( Harry Winston)——在電影《紳士愛美人》( Gentlemen Prefer Blondes)中,瑪麗蓮?夢露佩戴的鉆石就是這家珠寶商的產品。

????同時還擁有歐米茄(Omega)和天梭(Tissot)等中檔品牌的斯沃琪集團目前占據瑞士手表總銷售額的三分之一。去年,這家公司的凈利潤猛增26%,飆升至16億瑞士法郎(約合17.6億美元)。斯沃琪集團希望削減對外出售的零部件數量,從而為自有品牌留存更多零部件。分析人士預測,通過這個舉措,這家制表業巨頭有望將自有品牌的銷售額提升40億美元。

????盡管這項裁定對Delance等小型制表商網開一面,但它松散的措辭讓人無法確知,斯沃琪將如何選擇真正有望購買其零部件的制表商。“斯沃琪集團是‘瑞士制造’標簽的看門人,”哈佛商學院(Harvard Business School) 2010年發布的一份瑞士手表業報告如是寫道。就連勞力士( Rolex)、百達翡麗(Patek Philippe)和積家(Jaeger-LeCoultre)等知名品牌也使用一些由斯沃琪集團制造的零部件。一只手表要想獲得令人垂涎的“瑞士制造”標簽,至少一半的零部件必須是瑞士制造的。

????晨星投資服務公司(Morningstar Investment Services)手表業股票分析師保羅?斯溫納德表示,這項裁定并沒有解決一些關鍵性的問題。他說:“如果一家制表商的規模很大,但受到了斯沃琪集團的青睞,那將會怎么樣?而如果一家公司是小制表商,但斯沃琪不喜歡它,那又會發生什么事情?”他說。

????洛杉磯精品投資銀行圣人集團( The Sage Group)消費品和媒體事務副總裁阿拉仕?法林認為,青睞Delance和康斯登(Frederique Constant)等小眾奢侈品牌的消費者可能很快就不得不支付更高的買價。他說:“幾乎每家瑞士制表商都在使用斯沃琪生產的零部件。”法林認為,小型制表商或許不得不與競爭對手合并,甚至有可能整體售出。“這項決定的影響范圍不應該被低估。”

????20世紀70年代和80年代,受廉價的日本石英手表沖擊,瑞士的機械手表制造業幾近崩潰。自那時起,這個以墨守成規著稱的行業開始緩慢地創新。斯沃琪集團對零部件研發和設計的投資收到了回報,但這家公司一直堅守著自身的形象和聲譽。

????但斯沃琪集團的皇冠上的明珠是位于小城格倫興附近的ETA制造廠。各大奢華手表制造商所使用的機械裝置中,超過75%是這家工廠制造的。此外,超過90%的游絲(調節手表的重要部件)是由斯沃琪集團另一家子公司Nivarox-FAR生產制造的。業內人士聲稱,這是一種“傻子都無法規避”的壟斷。作為規模較小的競爭對手,Sellita和Soprod生產的零部件數量根本無法與斯沃琪集團相匹敵;Sellita公司甚至依賴ETA制造廠供應一些組裝好的部件。這家公司沒有回應本文作者的采訪請求。

????康斯登公司聯合創始人兼首席執行官彼得?斯塔斯在該公司官網發表聲明稱,這項裁定是“一顆重磅炸彈”,并補充說,“一些規模較小的制造商將被迫歇業。”德勤咨詢公司(Deloitte )發布的2013年行業報告預測稱,無力構建零部件生產能力的小品牌將面臨更高的采購成本。

????但斯沃琪集團早在十多年前就揚言將逐步削減零部件銷量,給予了競爭對手充足的警告。然而,在去年7月份首次受理斯沃琪集團的削減計劃時,作為監管機構的瑞士競爭委員會(COMCO)作出了否決裁定,從而使得這項計劃的前景變得撲朔迷離。

????Along with private banking and chocolate, luxury timepieces are Switzerland's trademark. Swiss watch exports rose 11% last year to a record 21.4 billion Swiss francs (almost $24 billion), according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, a trade group. Wealthy Asian and Middle Eastern consumers now account for 54% of sales.

????With its quartz-powered, funky designs, Swatch, founded in 1983, is viewed by old-world competitors as a down-market parvenu that tarnishes the Swiss mystique. But in recent years the company has pushed into the luxury market, acquiring storied brands like Blancpain, whose heritage dates to 1735; Breuguet, referenced by Stendahl and Pushkin; and jeweler Harry Winston, whose diamonds draped Marilyn Monroe in Gentlemen Prefer Blondes.

????Swatch, which also owns mid-range brands like Omega and Tissot, now accounts for one one-third of all Swiss watch sales. Its net profit soared 26% last year to 1.6 billion Swiss francs ($1.76 billion). Swatch wants to cut parts sales to have more parts for its own watches; analysts say in doing so, the giant could boost its own watch sales by $4 billion.

????While the ruling carves out an exception for smaller watchmakers like Delance, its loose wording leaves uncertain how Swatch will choose watchmakers to which it will actually sell parts. "Swatch Group is a gatekeeper to the 'Swiss Made'" label," says a 2010 Harvard Business School report on the industry. Even prestige brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Jaeger-LeCoultre use some Swatch-made parts. At least 50% of a watch must be made in Switzerland in order to bear the coveted "Swiss Made" label.

????Paul Swinand, an equity analyst at Morningstar Investment Services who covers the industry, said the ruling left open some key questions. "What if somebody's big and Swatch likes them, but what if they're small and Swatch doesn't," he said.

????Arash Farin, a vice president specializing in consumer goods and media at The Sage Group, a boutique investment bank in Los Angeles, said that consumers who favor smaller niche luxury brands like Delance and Frederique Constant may be soon be paying higher prices. "Nearly every Swiss watchmaker uses Swatch components," Farin said, adding that smaller players may have to consolidate with competitors or sell themselves. "The magnitude of this decision should not be underestimated."

????Mechanical Swiss watchmaking nearly collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s amid the introduction of cheap Japanese quartz watches. The hidebound industry has been slow to innovative, with Swatch effectively subsidizing research and design of parts, but it has clung to its image and prestige.

????But Swatch's crown jewel is ETA, a manufacturing plant in nearby Grenchen that makes over 75% of the core mechanisms used in watches made by luxury competitors. Still another Swatch subsidiary, Nivarox-FAR, makes over 90% of the balance springs that regulate watches. Watch industry insiders call the near-monopoly "bolt to a dolt." Sellita and Soprod, smaller competitors, produce parts in much smaller volumes; Sellita even relies on ETA for some supplies for assembled pieces. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

????Peter Stas, the co-founder and chief executive of Frederique Constant, called the ruling "a bombshell" on the company's website, adding that "a number of smaller manufacturers will be forced out of business." Deloitte said in a 2013 industry report that smaller brands unable to build production capacity for parts would face higher supply costs.

????But Swatch has threatened for more than a decade to taper supplies, giving competitors plenty of heads-up. Along the way, COMCO, the Swiss regulator, confused matters when it initially vetoed Swatch's tapering plan last July.

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