????盡管媒體對電動汽車頗有微詞，但現在就說要放棄它還為時尚早。目前，包括特斯拉（Tesla）S，通用沃藍達（Volt）和日產聆風（Leaf）在內，市面上共有8家廠商生產的14款插電式電動汽車。不過它們的銷量可不盡如人意。據電動車交通協會（Electric Drive Transportation Association）稱，今年迄今為止美國一共只售出了68,000輛插電式混動車和純電動汽車，而汽車總銷量卻有1170萬輛之巨，兩者相比差距懸殊。同時，個數字也遠低于業內預期，表明公眾除了對電動汽車的續航里程深表焦慮外——比如在漆黑的鄉間小路上突然沒電了，也非常擔心它的高額成本。

????不過，來自普華永道公司（PWC）的一份全新研究卻稱，電動汽車的未來可能比多數人所想象的更光明。在這份名為《汽車電池最新動態》（Battery Update）的報告中，這家咨詢公司調研LG公司、三星公司（Samsung）和三洋公司（Sanyo）等主要汽車廠商和電池生產商后發現，到2020年末，規模經濟將大幅降低車用鋰電池的價格。普華永道清潔交通實踐部的主管奧利佛?哈茲梅說：“這個行業剛剛起步，將會經歷很多起伏。但我們仍然深信，電動汽車不是會不會、而是什么時候會普及的問題。”

????他的這種樂觀來自于他所目睹的汽車電池大幅下降的價格走勢。普華永道稱，目前汽車電池每千瓦成本是600多美元，意味著一輛純電動汽車所需的一塊20千瓦電池需要12,000美元——而目前一臺普通內燃機的成本大概只有2,000美元。普華永道相信，到2020年電池成本將下降一半到每千瓦300美元，使電池與內燃機的成本差距縮小到4,000美元左右。鑒于電動汽車不需要昂貴的變速箱和傳統系統，這個價差還將進一步縮小。

????再考慮到每英里所需的電能要比汽油便宜得多，電動汽車對消費者來說就更具吸引力了——哪怕沒有政府補貼也是一樣。至于對續航里程的擔心，汽車廠商也將提供兩種選擇讓大家消除顧慮，一種是專供城區使用的廉價、短距離電動汽車，一種是用于更長路途、價格較高的電動汽車。比如特斯拉公司就已經開始提供電池容量和續航里程都有所差異的Model S。

????什么因素能讓汽車電池的成本降到這種程度呢？普華永道估計，全球電動汽車市場只需要每年增長2.5-3%就行。美國目前的銷售增幅大概是5%，歐洲是4%，而中國是3%。要保持這種增幅似乎并不困難。

????至于2020年以后電動汽車的走勢，哈茲梅表示，目前正在實驗室中測試的新技術到2025年會讓鋰電池的價格降到每千瓦200美元，將使電動汽車有能力與傳統汽車展開正面競爭。哈茲梅由衷感嘆：“電動汽車將成為汽車行業的終極追求。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：清遠????????

????Despite rumblings in the press, it's not time yet to give up on the electric car. Currently 14 plug-in models are available from eight automotive manufacturers including the Tesla S (TSLA), the GM Volt (GM), and the Nissan Leaf (NSANY). But sales have been disappointing. According to the Electric Drive Transportation Association, only 68,000 plug-in hybrids and all-electrics have been sold in the U.S. so far this year. That compares to 11.7 million cars sold in total. That rate is well below industry estimates, suggesting that the public is wary of the high costs of EVs plus the dreaded range anxiety -- running out of juice on a dark country road.

????A new study by PWC, however, argues that the future of EVs might be brighter than most think. The consulting firm, in its study "Battery Update," surveyed major automakers and battery manufacturers such as LG, Samsung, and Sanyo, and found that economies of scale will significantly drive down the price of car lithium ion batteries by the end of the decade. Says Oliver Hazimeh, who leads the clean transportation practice at PWC, "It's a nascent industry that will suffer a lot of ups and down. But we still believe fundamentally that the electric car is a matter of not if, but when."

????His optimism springs from what he sees as a steep, downward pricing curve. According to PWC, electric car batteries now cost a little more than $600 a kilowatt, meaning a 20 KW battery needed to power an all electric car runs about $12,000 dollars -- compared to about $2,000 for a conventional combustion engine. PWC believes that by 2020 battery costs will drop by half to $300 a KW, reducing the gap between electric and gasoline to about $4,000. Considering that electrical cars don't need costly transmissions and drive trains, that gap would be smaller still.

????Add in that electricity per mile is much cheaper than gasoline, and the equation for the consumer starts to get very attractive -- even without government subsidies. And about that range anxiety? Carmakers will offer two choices, EVs that are cheap and have a low range for city driving, and ones that are more expensive for longer trips. Tesla already offers different battery sizes with different ranges on the S model.

????What will it take to drive battery prices down this much? PWC estimates that the global EV market will only need to grow 2.5 to 3% annually. Already in the U.S. sales are growing about 5% a year; in Europe 4% and in China 3%. Maintaining this kind of growth rate hardly seems a stretch.

????As for the fate of EVs beyond 2020, Hazimeh says new innovations now being tested in the labs should drive the price of lithium ion batteries down to $200 a kilowatt by 2025, which will make EVs straight-on competitive with conventional cars. Says Hazimeh: "It's the holy grail."????????