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日本的機器人癡迷癥之憂

日本的機器人癡迷癥之憂

Michael Fitzpatrick 2013-11-01
日本人對機器人的親密情誼由來已久,哆啦A夢就是個明證。目前,日本對人工智能的研究與開發也居于全球領先地位。然而,學者認為,這種迷戀可能會給日本帶來嚴重的后患。

????過去的幾十年中,美國的人工智能研究員在金融、軍用和語音識別等專業領域都開設了研究項目。另一方面,日本的科學家則對日常問題更感興趣。比如如何讓人形機器人泡茶,或解開一個縱橫填字謎題。新井紀子說:“這種類似于科學狂人的夢想……吸引了許多日本人和一些歐洲人前去追尋。”

????日本整體對機器人持放任態度。勞動人口老齡化導致大量職位空缺,日本也迫切地想在不借助外來移民的情況下解決這個問題。以上兩點使得日本似乎成了為人工智能量身打造的樂土。前不久,日產公司(Nissan)的自動駕駛汽車在日本獲得了上路牌照,而美國仍然在谷歌(Google)自動駕駛汽車的立法問題上猶豫不決。日本可能很快就能看到機器人汽車和自動化的卡車。

????新井紀子表示,擁有可以通過日本大學入學考試的軟件可以告訴大家,人工智能究竟能夠干什么,也可以當作一次警鐘。“媒體可能已經提出了類似的問題,但是政治家和經濟學家還不打算認真思考。他們沒有考慮人工智能可能帶來多大的風險,只注意到人工智能可以解決更多工作問題?!?/p>

????新井紀子聲稱,到2016年,日本就能研發出軟件,能夠輕松通過相對簡單的大學入學考試。每年都有大約50萬考生參加由全日本的大學考試委員會命題的選擇題考試。達到60%的正確率就能通過考試。而要參加東京大學的入學考試,學生們在這份試卷中至少需要達到80%的正確率。

????IBM的日本分公司也在嘗試用超級電腦參加東京大學的測試,不過國立情報學研究所目前處于領先。新井紀子說:“我們的人工智能現在能做對50%的題目,這已經足夠通過考試了。去年,我們讓它做對了六道題中的四道。10年之內,它就能和東京大學的19歲學生一較高低了。”(財富中文網)

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Over the past few decades, American AI researchers have pursued specialized projects involving finance, military applications, and speech recognition. Scientists in Japan, on the other hand, have been more interested in solving general problems such as how to get a humanoid robot to make tea or solve a crossword puzzle. "It's a sort of mad scientist dream ... pursued mostly by many in Japan and some Europeans," Arai says.

????With its laissez-faire attitude to robots and a dire need to fill jobs without resorting to immigration as the working population ages, Japan seems tailor-made for AI. Nissan's autonomous self-drive vehicle has just been granted a drivers license in Japan while the U.S. is still wondering how to legislate for the self-driving Google (GOOG) car. Japan may soon see its first robot taxis and automated trucks.

????Having software that can pass Japanese university entrance exams will show just what AI is capable of doing and should serve as a wake-up-call, says Arai. "Such problems may be raised by the media but politicians and economists don't want to think seriously about it. They don't anticipate the qualitative risks AI may cause. They tend to think AI may create more jobs."

????Arai claims Japan will develop software that will easily pass the less difficult standard Japanese university entrance exam by 2016. This multiple-choice test, taken by half a million students every year, is given by university exam boards all over Japan. The threshold to pass this test is 60%. Students must attain at least an 80% score on this test to qualify to take the Todai exam.

????IBM Japan (IBM) is also trying out its supercomputer on Todai test questions, but NII is leading the charge so far. "Our AI now gets 50% correct, which is good enough to pass. Last year, we got four out of six questions right. In 10 years, it will compete well with Todai 19-year-old students," says Arai.

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