????另外我想指出，Twitter的CEO迪克?科斯特洛有一點(diǎn)值得表揚(yáng)，那就是他對股票控制得比較緊，不像上一次Facebook上市時，二級市場像跳蚤市場一樣亂糟糟的。Twitter公司禁止高管參與銷售股票，而且據(jù)說Twitter的私人股票也是比較鞏固的。另外，F(xiàn)acebook的股價在一開始受挫后現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始穩(wěn)步回升，這也有助于Twitter在二級市場的表現(xiàn)。因此，當(dāng)Facebook在七月的最后一周宣布股價已經(jīng)回升到上市價格時，Twitter的IPO申請開始加速，這絕不是偶然或巧合。

????把這筆交易吹上天

????感謝上帝，F(xiàn)acebook上市的那天晚上，我沒有參加CNBC的“快速生錢”欄目。當(dāng)天晚上，該欄目邀請了梅莉莎?李和四名操盤手，結(jié)果Facebook股價一跌，他們五人立刻沒臉見人了。等到股價被攔腰砍了一半，所有之前狂吹Facebook股票的人都立刻追悔莫及。直到現(xiàn)在，我們一起上節(jié)目之前偶爾還會就這件事互相安慰一下。《紐約時報》（New York Post ）的跟進(jìn)報道更是令這期節(jié)目聲名狼藉，甚至還責(zé)怪這期節(jié)目就是導(dǎo)致Facebook的IPO失敗的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?/p>

????媒體同樣會圍繞著Twitter的IPO大肆宣傳，其中大多數(shù)恐怕都是由于媒體對Twitter服務(wù)本身的癡迷，不過這次跟上一次肯定很不一樣。另外Twitter現(xiàn)在只有2億的用戶群，不像Facebook上市時已經(jīng)有了10多億用戶。

????“黑色三分鐘”

????Facebook上市之前幾天，每一家承銷Facebook股票的投行的分析師們都開始悄悄地告訴機(jī)構(gòu)客戶，認(rèn)為Facebook的收益預(yù)期可能有點(diǎn)太激進(jìn)了。這種事之前可以說是聞所未聞的。長期市場觀察人士都感到非常吃驚，因?yàn)樗麄円矎臎]見過這種事，可以說這是對這次IPO徹頭徹尾的背叛。

????一旦流言開始發(fā)揮它的威力，突然之間，許多人就會選擇在開盤首日拋售股票，甚至全國各地的機(jī)構(gòu)投資人和對沖基金都會爭相要求取消認(rèn)購。十年來最熱門的IPO在交易前最后幾小時突然變得門庭冷清，讓媒體和交易所都始料未及。

????隨著取消認(rèn)購和拋售股票愈演愈烈，本已不堪重負(fù)的納斯達(dá)克交易所的情況也進(jìn)一步惡化了，局面變得更加混亂。等到當(dāng)日收盤時，F(xiàn)acebook的股價已經(jīng)慘不忍睹，幾百萬股東、操盤手、銀行家以及Facebook的員工們已然潰不成軍。與此同時，F(xiàn)acebook的“孩子王”馬克?扎克伯格正在意大利度蜜月（莫名其妙的是，他居然被人拍到在當(dāng)?shù)氐囊患摇皾h堡王”里吃飯）。此時在紐約市，已有數(shù)十億美金隨著這次IPO蒸發(fā)了。這次交易后，所有人相互指責(zé)的場景恐怕永遠(yuǎn)都不會被忘掉。

????沒有人想再經(jīng)歷這樣一場悲劇。這一次可以肯定，各大交易所會把確保平穩(wěn)開盤當(dāng)成重中之重，而且華爾街分析師們在IPO之前的幾天里也會盡力表現(xiàn)得最好。

????記住不要再亂嚼舌頭了，伙計(jì)們。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者是Ritholtz財富管理公司的CEO，也是The Reformed Broker博客的作者。

????譯者：樸成奎?

????I'd also like to point out that Dick Costolo, Twitter's CEO, should be commended for keeping a tight handle on shares, unlike the Second Market swap-meet environment that surrounded Facebook's debut. Executives have been barred from selling shares, and the private stock that is out there is said to be fairly consolidated. It helps Twitter's aftermarket prospects that Facebook's stock has now recovered its initial losses and has been steadily bolting higher. It's no accident or coincidence t?hat Twitter's filing wheels began to turn at the exact moment Facebook reclaimed its opening price during the last week of July.

????Hyping up the deal

????Thank the Lord I wasn't on CNBC's Fast Money the night the Facebook IPO priced because they made Melissa Lee and the four traders who were on the show all wear hoodies. Once the share price had been cut in half, all that exuberance turned to regret rather quickly. We still tease each other about it in the green room to this day. The New York Post made the Fast Money hoodie incident infamous, going so far as to blame the show for the deal's failure.

????There will still be plenty of hype about the public offering, mostly owing to the general journalistic obsession with the Twitter service itself, but nowhere near on a par with FB. Besides, Twitter has a user base of just 200 million, not the billion-plus Facebook went public with.

????Last-minute glitches and hitches

????A few days before the Facebook IPO, analysts at the very investment banks that were underwriting the offering began to whisper in the ears of select institutional clients that revenue expectations for the company were a tad too aggressive. This kind of thing was absolutely unheard of. Long-time market watchers were just gobsmacked; they had never seen anything like it, a complete and total betrayal to the whole idea of the thing.

????Once that word began to make the rounds, all of a sudden there were a lot more first-day flippers and even outright cancellations of allocation requests from institutions and hedge funds all over the country. The hottest IPO of the decade went ice-cold in the last few hours before trading, unbeknownst to the press or the exchange itself.

????These rapid-fire cancellations and sell orders only exacerbated the overloaded Nasdaq open, which made things even more chaotic. By the time the market had closed that day, the IPO price was just barely defended, and millions of shareholders, traders, bankers, and Facebook employees were utterly demoralized. In the meantime, Facebook's boy-king Mark Zuckerbergwas honeymooning in Italy (photographed, inexplicably, eating at a Burger King) while billions of dollars evaporated here in New York. The finger-pointing free-for-all in the deal's aftermath will probably never be forgotten.

????No one -- and I mean no one -- wants to live through that again. This time around, you can bet that the exchanges will make a smooth opening a life-or-death priority and that Wall Street's analysts will be on their best behavior in the days leading up to the IPO.

????Bite your tongue, boys.

????Joshua Morgan Brown is CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of The Reformed Broker blog.