????大眾（Volkswagen）在駛向世界第一寶座的道路上是不是遇到障礙了？

????德國一家權威商業雜志報道這家汽車制造商的高管擔憂利潤將低于預期后，這個問題如今已經成為德國各界關注的熱點。

????大眾汽車的股價在截至上周五的五個交易日中已經下跌了4%，而德國主要股指上漲了4%。這個背離大盤的走勢表明上面提到的報道已經嚇到了投資者，雖然大眾很快予以否認。

????德國《經理人》（Manager Magazin）雜志報道稱，大眾集團首席財務官潘師告訴管理層，大眾集團很可能無法實現2015年的利潤目標，并由此無法在2018年達到息稅前利潤增長8%的目標。

????“我們認為，大眾確實存在一個問題，”伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）在一份分析師報告中指出。“他們過高地估計了MQB項目的節約效應，造成市場預期過高，難以兌現。”MQB是大眾的橫置發動機模塊化平臺，用于生產大眾新高爾夫（Golf）以及奧迪（Audi）、西雅特（Seat）、斯柯達（Skoda）和其他大眾品牌車型。

????伯恩斯坦預計，到2020年，大眾全球單一平臺的汽車產量將達到550萬輛，而將被MQB取代的現有平臺如今的汽車產量是300萬輛。

????2009年以來，大眾高管一直宣稱，MQB將實現20%的成本節約。伯恩斯坦認為，大眾對于這個平臺的鼓吹“言過其實”。他警告投資者，不要指望新平臺相比老平臺馬上就能產生很大的成本節約效應。伯恩斯坦表示，一位曾將新高爾夫拆解為零件的專家表示，這個平臺使用昂貴的材料和工程解決方案，看來成本相對較高。

????大眾擁有12個品牌，在高速增長的中國市場有驕人的市場份額，公司的目標是2018年（甚至更早）成為全球最大的汽車制造商。通用汽車（General Motors）和豐田汽車（Toyota）尚未發布具體的預期，但兩者都有野心在利潤和客戶滿意度上領導這個市場（假如它們不能在銷售量上取得領先地位的話）。

????大眾正在拓展北美客戶群，一個關鍵項目就是在美國田納西州查塔努加建設一家組裝廠，制造專門為北美駕駛者設計的帕薩特（Passat）中型車。但大眾也可能面臨美國工人罷工的風險，美國汽車工人聯合會（U.A.W.）已瞄準將這家工廠，希望把它納入組織。

????伯恩斯坦表示，大眾在實現效率方面表現“相當不錯”，或許已實現大部分。除此之外，本田（Honda）、現代（Hyundai）等汽車制造商也已證明可以通過少數平臺實現強勁銷售。

????但不是所有人都在擔心大眾。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）針對上述報道發布了一份報告稱，大眾在十年前就遭遇了成本利潤問題；這家汽車制造商的領導人正在確保不再發生這樣的情況；因此，那次會議的目的是向高管發出警告，警惕成本。

????大眾無疑已經意識到的一點是，公開探討世界領導地位（無論它在激勵員工方面有什么價值）容易被質疑者和評論人士盯上，但其中大量的關注并不令人愉快。（財富中文網）

????Has Volkswagen hit a pothole on the road to world domination?

????The question is front and center in Germany, after an authoritative German business magazine reported that the automaker's executives are worried that profit is falling behind projections.

????VW shares fell 4% for the five trading days ending Friday, while the main German stock index was up 4%. The divergence suggests that investors have been spooked by the story, which VW quickly denied.

????Manager Magazin reported that Hans Dieter Potsch, the company's chief financial officer, told executives that the VW group was on a path to miss its 2015 profit target and, therefore, might not reach its 8% target for earnings before interest and taxes in 2018.

????"We believe VW does have an issue," said Bernstein Research in an analyst report, having "overpromised on savings related to the MQB program and has created market expectations that will be difficult to fulfill." MQB is the moniker for a modular vehicle architecture, the basis for the new VW Golf and many other models from Audi, Seat, Skoda, and other VW brands.

????By the end of the decade, Bernstein expects VW to be building 5.5 million vehicles worldwide from a single platform, compared with 3 million vehicles today from the platform MQB will replace.

????Since 2009, VW executives have claimed that MQB will allow the automaker to realize cost savings of 20%. Bernstein has called the platform "over-hyped" and cautioned against expecting too much cost improvements from the new platform over its predecessor. Bernstein said a specialist that has torn down the new Golf to its constituent parts said the platform looks relatively high cost, using expensive materials and engineering solutions.

????The automaker has assembled a collection of 12 brands and built an impressive presence in the fast-growing Chinese market, leading to its goal of becoming the No. 1 automaker worldwide by 2018, or even before. General Motors (GM) and Toyota (TM) haven't issued specific projections, but they both harbor ambitions of their own to lead the market in terms of profits and customer satisfaction, if not in unit sales volume.

????VW is its expanding customer base in North America, driven by the construction of an assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. where it builds a Passat midsize sedan that's designed specifically for North American drivers. But VW could face labor unrest in the U.S. since the U.A.W. has targeted its plant for organization.

????Bernstein said that VW is "pretty good" at achieving efficiencies and may have reaped most of them already. Besides, other automakers like Honda and Hyundai have proven they also can achieve strong volume from few platforms.

????Not every one is worried about VW. Deutsche Bank issued a report based on the magazine story saying that VW ran into cost and profit trouble a decade ago and that the automaker's leaders are making sure it doesn't happen again; thus, the meeting to warn its executives and caution about costs.

????What VW no doubt realizes is that speaking openly about world domination, whatever its value for motivating employees, creates lots of scrutiny from skeptics and commentators, much of it unflattering.