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Twitter可以從Facebook上市學到的四大教訓

Twitter可以從Facebook上市學到的四大教訓

JP Mangalindan, Writer 2013-09-17
Twitter上市在即。為了避免大熱倒灶,它可以汲取Facebook在股票市場的首次公開募股時的教訓,做到下面四點:定價合理;信息保密;切忌選擇性信息披露;保持低調。

????社交媒體Facebook當前股價徘徊在44美元左右,可謂是一個不錯的價位。殊不知,Facebook的首次公開募股跌宕起伏。由于許多人指責它估值過高,Facebook在上市后的前幾個月里備受批評。本周,Twitter宣布已經秘密提交了準備首次公開募股(IPO)的S-1文件。事實上,對于Twitter而言,Facebook艱難的上市經歷非常值得借鑒。

????本周,馬克?扎克伯格在Twitter宣布IPO前一天召開的TechCrunch's Disrupt大會上說:“只要有可能,我就不會公開和IPO有關的信息。我從來沒隱瞞過這一點。但是,回想起來,我非常害怕公開上市。Twitter只要致力于該做的事就很好。”

????以下是Twitter可以從Facebook身上汲取的經驗。

????適當定價。2012年5月18日,Faceook在納斯達克(NASDAQ)上市。整個業界為之歡呼。從當初的哈佛大學(Harvard)校內網迅速發展,成為現在擁有12億用戶的社交媒體,Facebook最終實現了成功。對有些人來說,Facebook的估值還沒有到上限。但是對大多數人來說,38美元/股的發行價和1,040億美元的估值著實令人咂舌。IPO之后數月內,Facebook股價一度跌至每股18美元。《財富》雜志(Fortune)采訪過的專業人士都認為,如果Twitter定價適當,估值合理,它在股市的潛力將十分巨大。商務調研公司PrivCo的分析師道格拉斯?韋爾特曼表示,這不但賦予投資者增值潛力,而且也能更好地管理員工的預期。

????信息“保密”。確實,Twitter已經秘密提交了S-1文件。專家指出,對信息保密是明智之舉。只要可能,在路演前,Twitter要盡量對公司的敏感信息予以保密,比如公司收入。Twitter表示將于2013年、而不是2014年上市。但是,即使Twitter取消IPO計劃,它將面臨的附帶損失也會較小。佛羅里達大學(the University of Florida)金融學教授杰?里特爾指出:“大多數公司選擇秘密提交IPO文件,旨在確保敏感信息不被披露。如果將來決定取消上市,風險也會小一些。”

????切忌選擇性公開信息。Facebook公司 IPO的承銷商投資銀行摩根史丹利(Morgan Stanley)同意向馬薩諸塞州的監管機構支付500萬美元。原因何在?摩根史丹利發布了公開呈報,這為分析師提供了更為詳細的信息,從而讓他們了解Facebook移動廣告業務的負面趨勢。但是,其他投資者卻沒有收到這方面的信息,他們只能從Facebook的監管文件中了解寬泛的信息。顯然,隨之而來的爭論給IPO進展造成了負面的影響。“如果你想讓某一個投資者了解一條信息,那么就得確保讓所有投資者都能了解到這條信息,”IPO咨詢服務公司Park Lane Capital的CEO丹尼爾?羅伯遜簡單地概括道。在走向上市的過程中,Twitter最應該避免的就是爭論,尤其是可能導致監管罰款的爭論。

????With its stock currently hovering around $44, Facebook (FB) is sitting pretty now, but its public offering was anything but smooth. During the social network's initial months on the stock market, it came under fire for what many argued was an overinflated valuation. Indeed, its troubled trajectory to becoming a publicly-traded company offers some valuable lessons for another company that announced this week it had filed a confidential S-1 with IPO intentions: Twitter.

????"I've been very outspoken about staying private as long as possible," Mark Zuckerberg remarked onstage at TechCrunch's Disrupt conference this week, one day before Twitter's announcement. "But in retrospect, I was too afraid of going public. As long as Twitter focuses on what they're doing, I think it's wonderful."

????Here's what Twitter can learn from Facebook:

????Set a modestly-priced company valuation. When Facebook debuted on the NASDAQ on May 18, 2012, there was excitement. The rapidly-growing social network Zuckerberg started in his Harvard dorm room, and which now claims 1.2 billion users, had finally arrived. To some the sky seemed the limit. But to many others, launching at $38 a share and a $104 billion valuation seemed exorbitant. That played out in the initial months, when Facebook stock plunged under $18 -- less than half its price on day one. Pundits Fortune spoke with all agreed Twitter's stock market potential could be vast, provided it goes public at a modestly-priced valuation. Not only does that give investors more potential upside, it also better manages employee expectations, says Douglas Weltman, an analyst for the business research firm PrivCo.

????Keep it "confidential." Ok, so Twitter already filed its S-1 confidentially. But it was a smart move regardless, according to experts. It keeps sensitive company information, like revenues, private for as long as possible, up until its roadshow. While it signals the company will likely go public in 2013 instead of 2014, it also means Twitter deals with less fallout if an IPO doesn't happen. "Most companies when they do the confidential filing keep it confidential because they don't want to risk the embarrassment if they decide not to go ahead with the deal," explains Jay Ritter, professor of finance at the University of Florida.

????Forget selective disclosure. Morgan Stanley (MS), a Facebook IPO underwriter, agreed to pay Massachusetts regulators $5 million. Why? The investment bank put out a public filing that provided analysts with more detailed information about negative trends regarding Facebook's mobile ad business. Other investors however, did not receive the same information and relied on broader information from Facebook's regulatory filing. The ensuing hoopla arguably tainted the IPO proceedings even further. "If you're going to let one investor know a piece of information, be sure to include that to all of them," Daniel Robertson, CEO of IPO services firm Park Lane Capital companies, puts simply. The last thing Twitter needs as it transitions to a publicly-traded company is controversy, particularly one that results in a regulatory fine.

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