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惠普重振雄風差什么?

惠普重振雄風差什么?

Kevin Kelleher 2013-09-17
這個月,惠普即將被踢出道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數,它在硅谷及美國科技界的地位進一步衰落。惠特曼接任惠普CEO后,這個曾經的科技巨頭一度顯示出復蘇的勢頭,但它最新發(fā)布的財報卻打破了人們的這種幻想。擁有33萬員工的惠普未來幾年可能都翻身無望了。

????積極的并購交易可以讓一家公司進入新的市場,進一步壯大它的實力。當然,它也可能讓這家公司焦頭爛額地應對復雜的IT整合,一輪又一輪的裁員,以及數十億美元的資產減記,結果反而消耗了實力。不幸的是,惠普的命運正是第二種情況。到2012年11月,惠普股價已跌至11.35美元,在25個月內累計下跌了79%。同期,標準普爾500指數卻上漲了18%。

????惠特曼正是在惠普股價自由落體之際閃亮登場,在2011年成為惠普CEO。但她已經注定要面對更多的裁員和減記,特別是在富有爭議的Autonomy公司收購交易之后。但是惠普股價從去年11月開始反彈,表明她帶領惠普走出風暴中心、進入平靜水域的努力發(fā)生了作用。

????上個月,惠普股價攀升至27.78美元,較去年秋季低點回升了145%。接下來,這家公司公布了最新的業(yè)績報告?;萜展际找鎴蟾婧?,它的股價在幾小時內下跌13%,回落到每股22美元。主要是因為最新業(yè)績報告使得市場質疑這家公司是否真的能夠華麗轉身,盡管惠特曼已經做出許多努力。此后三周內,惠普股價一直保持在每股22美元左右。

????股價下跌與惠普上一季度的業(yè)績表現沒什么關系:收入及盈利均符合華爾街分析師業(yè)已悲觀的預期。個人電腦業(yè)務收入下滑了11%,打印機業(yè)務收入(惠普長期以來的搖錢樹)下滑了4%,企業(yè)業(yè)務收入下降了9%,金融服務收入降了6%。唯一的亮點是惠普的軟件業(yè)務,它的收入增長1%來到了9.82億美元,占惠普總收入的3.6%。

????但這一切均在預期之內。傳統個人電腦業(yè)務的下滑以及企業(yè)在IT服務上的支出停滯拖累了惠普等高科技巨頭。但真正導致股價大跌的原因是惠普對未來的預期——無關復蘇的東西?;萏芈陔娫挄h上說了這樣一番話:

????“上個季度服務器市場的增長率出現下降。個人電腦市場企穩(wěn)的程度不及我的預期。我預期的企穩(wěn)還需要繼續(xù)等待。最后,企業(yè)服務今年表現不錯,今年這項業(yè)務收入流失進一步放緩……”

????這些讓分析師們驚慌失措?;ㄆ旒瘓F(Citigroup)擔心,惠普的“電話會議揭示了該公司面臨的一些挑戰(zhàn)”。Needham & Co.公司指出,此前就表示過對惠普能否扭轉頹勢的懷疑,“圍繞惠普的超級樂觀情緒終于開始消退了?!边€有分析師因為惠普2014年收入無增長的前景感到大驚失措,而企業(yè)部門管理層變動則讓另一些分析師大跌眼鏡?;萜找恢毕M髽I(yè)部門成為一個增長點。

????過去一個月內發(fā)生的事已經描繪出一種場景:惠普不僅僅是在艱難時期墜落的硅谷先驅,而且即使未來幾年也可能沒希望重振雄風了。鑒于它的員工總數超過33萬人,這樣的情景發(fā)人深省。惠普被剔除道瓊斯指數后還將生存下去。但如果作為硅谷標志性企業(yè)的身份也被剝奪,它的境遇也許會進一步惡化。(財富中文網)

????譯者:默默

????

????Aggressive M&A can strengthen a company by broadening its reach into new markets. Or it can deplete its strength by distracting the company with complex IT integration, endless rounds of layoffs, and billions of dollars in write-downs. HP's fate ended up being the latter. By November 2012, its stock had fallen to $11.35 a share, a decline of 79% over 25 months. During that same period, the S&P 500 rose 18%.

????Whitman came in during the middle of that freefall, becoming HP's CEO in 2011. She had her work cut out for her: more layoffs and writedowns, particularly in the wake of the controversial Autonomy deal. But starting last November, the stock rallied, suggesting that her efforts to steer HP out of the storm and into calmer waters was actually working.

????HP's stock reached as high as $27.78 last month, an increase of 145% from its low point last fall. Then came its most recent financial report. The stock dropped 13% to $22 a share in a matter of hours after HP posted its earnings, largely because the numbers raised questions about whether this company could ever be turned around, even with the work that Whitman has done. The stock has stayed around $22 a share in the three weeks since then.

????The reason has nothing to do with HP's last quarter: Revenue and earnings came in line with Wall Street's expectations, which were grim ones. PC revenue fell 11%, printer revenue (long HP's cash cow) fell 4%, enterprise business fell 9%, and financial services fell 6%. The only bright spot was HP's software, which saw revenue rise 1% to $982 million, or 3.6% of HP's total revenue.

????All that was expected. The fall of the old-school PC and the stagnant spending by companies on IT services have hurt HP and other tech giants. The killer was what HP saw ahead, which was not the stuff of recovery. In the conference call, Whitman said things like this:

????"The server market growth rates have come down in the last quarter. The PC market has not stabilized as much as I had anticipated it would. That stabilization is yet to occur. Then finally, Enterprise Services, which is good for this year is the revenues running off more slowly this year ..."

????Analysts kind of freaked. Citigroup fretted that its "conference call unveiled several challenges." Needham & Co., noting its earlier skepticism in a turnaround, said "euphoria is finally wearing off." Others were taken aback about the prospect of no revenue growth in 2014 and still others by the management changes in the enterprise division, an area that HP long hoped would be a growth area.

????The past month has painted a picture where HP is not only a Silicon Valley pioneer that has fallen on hard times, but one where a turnaround may in fact be impossible even in the next few years. Given it employs well over 330,000 people, that's a sobering scenario. HP will survive being jettisoned from the Dow. It may fare less well if it also slips from being an icon of Silicon Valley.

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