????如果要讓你來當(dāng)家，你會(huì)怎樣重振惠普（Hewlett-Packard）？

????過去約十年的時(shí)間里，這是許多技術(shù)過硬、經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的CEO們不得不回答的一道難題，但他們大多給出了錯(cuò)誤的答案。但對(duì)于惠普現(xiàn)任CEO梅格?惠特曼以及她的下屬而言，這是一個(gè)非常現(xiàn)實(shí)的問題。

????在解決這個(gè)問題上，惠特曼曾經(jīng)是最接近成功的人。然而，最近的證據(jù)表明她也在節(jié)節(jié)敗退。值得注意的是，惠普將于本月被剔除出道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)，因?yàn)閷⒁〈腣isa公司似乎是代表大型高科技企業(yè)的更好選擇。1997年，惠普與沃爾瑪（Wal - Mart）、旅行者公司（Travelers）以及強(qiáng)生公司（Johnson & Johnson）一道被納為道瓊斯指數(shù)成份股。而如今惠普將是這幾個(gè)公司中第一個(gè)被剔除出道指的巨頭。

????惠普被剔除道指的部分原因在于高科技公司似乎比零售、保險(xiǎn)或醫(yī)療類企業(yè)老化的速度更快。但更主要的原因在于，惠普似乎已經(jīng)在惠特曼或任何人得以拯救這家公司之前陷入了不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的頹勢(shì)。果真如此，那么現(xiàn)實(shí)將是所有惠普人都不愿聽到的：認(rèn)命服老，接受長(zhǎng)江后浪推前浪的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

????惠特曼在接受媒體采訪時(shí)總喜歡反問：一家現(xiàn)金流數(shù)十億美元、收入數(shù)千億美元的公司怎么可能落伍？但答案就藏在惠普的歷史中。1999年，在路?普拉特結(jié)束精彩的六年半惠普CEO生涯（在此期間惠普股價(jià)上漲700%，道指同期上漲247%）離任后，卡莉?菲奧莉娜接任，隨后收購(gòu)了康柏公司（Compaq），準(zhǔn)備讓惠普迎接21世紀(jì)的大好前程。可惜的是，菲奧莉娜預(yù)見的新世紀(jì)和我們?nèi)缃袼幍摹F(xiàn)實(shí)中的新世紀(jì)相去甚遠(yuǎn)，因?yàn)榭蛋毓旧a(chǎn)的電腦已經(jīng)不再那么舉足輕重。

????后來馬克?赫德開始執(zhí)掌惠普。2005年，惠普在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下發(fā)起一系列并購(gòu)交易，這個(gè)策略在幾年內(nèi)都發(fā)揮了功效。2010年4月，惠普公司股價(jià)升至54.75美元，因赫德通過幾筆大膽的收購(gòu)交易成功將惠普打造成了一家IT服務(wù)巨頭。

????2010年4月，惠普的股價(jià)還在每股55美元附近。而之前赫德已經(jīng)在2008年作價(jià)139億美元收購(gòu)了EDS公司，此前也大手筆收購(gòu)了Opsware公司（16億美元）和Mercury Interactive公司（45億美元）。

????2010年4月，赫德完成一項(xiàng)交易（27億美元收購(gòu)3Com公司），還宣布了另一項(xiàng)新交易（12億美元收購(gòu)Palm公司）。赫德在這些大型交易上共斥資240億美元，此外還花費(fèi)數(shù)十億美元收購(gòu)其他較小的公司。他離任后，他的繼任者（惠特曼之前的繼任者）——尤其是李艾科——繼續(xù)斥巨資收購(gòu)大型公司，包括：23.5億美元收購(gòu)3Par公司以及110億美元收購(gòu)Autonomy公司。

????What would you do if it fell to you to turn around Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)?

????It's a bit of a trick question that a number of skilled and experienced CEOs have had to answer in the past decade or so, and most of them came up with the wrong answers. But it's a very real question for Meg Whitman, HP's current CEO, and for everyone who works for her.

????No one has come closer than Whitman to cracking that corporate koan. Yet recent evidence suggests she's losing ground. Notably, HP is being dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average this month, since Visa (V) appears to be a better proxy for big tech. HP joined the Dow as part of the Class of 1997, along with Wal-Mart (WMT), Travelers (TRV), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). It is the first dropout of that class.

????Part of HP's Dow exit is because tech companies seem to age faster than retail, insurance, or health care companies. But more of it is because HP seems to have slid into an irreversible decline even before Whitman -- or anyone -- could have saved the company. If that's the case, the reality is what no one at HP wants to hear: Lie down on the cold cotton sheets and enter corporate dotage, the future belongs to the generations that followed you.

????Whitman in interviews likes to ask how a company generating billions in cash and hundreds of billions in revenue could be falling behind. The answer lies in HP's history. In 1999, after Lew Platt stepped down after an impressive six-and-a-half-year run (HP's stock rose 700% vs. the Dow's 247% gain), Carly Fiorina stepped in and bought Compaq to prepare HP for the 21st century. Only Fiorina's new century wasn't the one we live in now, where the PCs Compaq made are becoming less relevant.

????Enter Mark Hurd. In 2005, he embarked on a series of aggressive purchases, a strategy that worked for several years. In April 2010, HP's stock traded as high as $54.75 a share, thanks to Hurd's campaign to remake HP into an IT-services powerhouse through multiple bold acquisitions.

????Back in April 2010, HP's stock was treading near $55 a share. Hurd had already bought EDS for $13.9 billion in 2008, following big-ticket deals like Opsware ($1.6 billion) and Mercury Interactive ($4.5 billion).

????That month, Hurd closed one deal (3Com for $2.7 billion) and announced another (Palm for $1.2 billion). Hurd spent $24 billion on those major deals plus billions more on other, smaller buys. After he left, his pre-Whitman successors -- notably Léo Apotheker -- spent yet more on big-ticket companies: $2.35 billion on 3Par and, infamously, $11 billion on Autonomy.