????摩根大通在財(cái)報(bào)中指出，它擁有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口最多的國(guó)家包括中國(guó)、巴西、印度和馬來西亞。該行表示，它可能在這四個(gè)國(guó)家損失略高于500億美元，約為總資本金的約四分之一。

????去年底，花旗表示，即便在最糟糕情形下，它在新興市場(chǎng)的潛在損失也微乎其微。該行自稱在巴西和印度的總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口為62億美元。但這也同樣是對(duì)沖后的數(shù)據(jù)。回到前面說過的政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)，花旗在這兩個(gè)國(guó)家的現(xiàn)有投資總額為540億美元。如果這些投資都無法收回，花旗資本金將減少三分之一。

????這還不是銀行業(yè)可能在新興市場(chǎng)的全部損失。高盛在最近一個(gè)季度表示，根據(jù)它在外匯市場(chǎng)的押注和為客戶執(zhí)行的交易計(jì)算，它在外匯市場(chǎng)的損失可能高達(dá)每天2,600萬(wàn)美元。這低于其買賣隨利率波動(dòng)的投資品種(比如，債券)可能造成的損失每天5,900萬(wàn)美元。但這個(gè)數(shù)字也不小了。假如高盛在最近一個(gè)季度的半數(shù)交易日都達(dá)到損失上限，另外一半交易日持平，該行將損失7.80億美元，差不多是第四季度全部?jī)衾麧?rùn)的40%。

????好消息是，幾乎沒人預(yù)計(jì)我們即將遭遇新興市場(chǎng)的全面大崩潰。大多數(shù)策略師們認(rèn)為，最可能出現(xiàn)的情形是，中國(guó)和其他市場(chǎng)逐漸放緩，美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家則開始再次加速增長(zhǎng)。巴西可能陷入緩慢增長(zhǎng)模式。印度的情形可能最麻煩，但幾乎沒人認(rèn)為將出現(xiàn)違約。而這就是可能出現(xiàn)的狀況。但壞消息是在未來數(shù)月或數(shù)年的某些時(shí)間，投資者可能會(huì)耽于憂慮，忘了這一點(diǎn)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）?

????In its financial statements, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) includes China, Brazil, India, and Malaysia among the countries where it says it has the biggest exposures. The bank says it could lose slightly more than $50 billion in those four countries, or about a quarter of its total capital.

????As of the end of last year, Citi said its potential losses in the emerging markets were minimal even in a worst case scenario. It put its total exposure to Brazil and India at $6.2 billion. But, again, that's after hedges. Go back to the government's figures, and total outstanding investment in those two countries is more like $54 billion, which if it all went bad would wipe out a third of Citi's capital.

????And that's not all the money banks could lose in emerging markets. In its most recent quarter, Goldman Sachs said based on the bets it makes in in the currency markets and trades it executes for clients, the firm could lose as much as $26 million in foreign exchange markets a day. That's less than $59 million it could lose a day buying and selling investments, like bonds, that fluctuate with interest rates. But it's not nothing. If Goldman were to hit its maximum losses on half of the days in the quarter, and break even on the rest of the days, that could cost the bank $780 million, or roughly 40% of what it earned in the entire fourth quarter.

????The good news is that few people see us headed for a major emerging market blowup. Most strategists believe the most likely scenario is a gradual slowdown in China and other markets, at a time when developed nations like the U.S. are starting to grow faster again. Brazil could be stuck in slow growth mode. The situation in India might be the toughest to resolve, but again, few are talking default. And that's what will likely happen. The bad news, though, is that there will also likely be days in the coming months and year, when investors are too nervous to remember that.