????8月初，2.1萬噸級運輸船永盛號從位于中國東北的大連港起航，向歐洲進發(fā)。但不走穿越馬六甲海峽，橫跨印度洋至蘇伊士運河和歐洲以外市場的向南路線，前往鹿特丹的永盛號轉(zhuǎn)向東北，朝著阿拉斯加和北極圈航行。它是中國第一艘嘗試東北航道(Northeast Passage)的商業(yè)貨輪。東北航道是一條圍繞歐亞大陸北部航行的捷徑，可以將中國到歐洲（中國最大的出口市場）的航行時間縮短整整兩個星期。

????氣候變暖和冰蓋融化每年都在延長北極航道的開放期，由此創(chuàng)造了一扇長達三至四個月的時間窗口——在這段時間，傳統(tǒng)船舶也能夠暢行于北極圈的冰流和冰山之間。但一如橫穿加拿大北部冰冷水域，世人期待已久的西北航道(Northwest Passage)對于船舶，特別是那些缺乏沒有使用防冰增強和加固船體的船舶來說，東北航道依然是一個暗藏殺機的兇險地帶。對于希望在東北航道運營的商業(yè)利益實體（主要是石油和天然氣勘探公司和商業(yè)運貨商）而言，冰蓋融化其實是一把雙刃劍，在允許傳統(tǒng)船只進入北極的同時，也讓這里成為一個更加危險的運營地帶，因為冰流和其他潛在危險變得更加難以預(yù)測。

????幾年前，國防承包商雷神公司(Raytheon)開始研發(fā)一套全新的北極導航系統(tǒng)。借助這套系統(tǒng)，未使用防冰加固的傳統(tǒng)船體可以在北極航行，但不是通過加固船體，也不是更好的破冰船，而是通過更好的信息和態(tài)勢感知能力。通過融合越來越多的數(shù)據(jù)來源（從往昔的衛(wèi)星和聲納技術(shù)，到下一代技術(shù)體系，比如無人駕駛飛機和潛水機器人），這家公司為一個傷腦筋的硬件問題創(chuàng)造了一套機敏的軟件解決方案，從而讓未使用防冰加固的傳統(tǒng)船體憑借精確數(shù)據(jù)航行于北極地帶。急于擴充自身北極航行能力的美國海軍已經(jīng)運用這項技術(shù)引導一艘未加固船體的傳統(tǒng)艦艇在北極成功航行了30天。隨著日益升高的平均氣溫繼續(xù)開拓海上通道，雷神北極監(jiān)測和預(yù)測系統(tǒng)(RAMP)有望為商業(yè)航運業(yè)打開曾經(jīng)無法逾越的北極航道之門。全球商業(yè)航運業(yè)每年通過海洋運輸價值逾4萬億美元的貨物。

????“那里的最大挑戰(zhàn)之一是保持對冰山和冰流的警惕，”雷神公司創(chuàng)新和原型設(shè)計團隊項目經(jīng)理蒂姆?拉格林說。“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，就連一些所謂的‘無冰’水域其實也名不副實，那實際上意味著這些水域基本上沒有冰，但依然有冰山和其他的冰風險存在。所以，提高態(tài)勢感知能力至關(guān)重要，除非你打算不惜資金，百般周折地重新設(shè)計，使用防冰加固的大量船只。這是一種非常節(jié)約成本的改善北極航行能力的方式。”

????船只之所以在北極缺乏態(tài)勢感知能力，是北極自身固有的一些問題所導致的。覆蓋北極的通信和測繪衛(wèi)星相對較少，甚至基本沒有，所以船舶導航器能夠獲取的信息非常少，而且也缺乏發(fā)送或接受信息的手段。同樣，由于在北極航行的船只非常少，船只之間共享的航行信息也少之又少。在某種程度上，北極是一個數(shù)據(jù)沙漠，任由導航器在這個世界上最無情的水域上幾近盲目地領(lǐng)航。

????In early August, the 21,000-ton shipping vessel Yong Sheng pulled out of the northeastern Chinese port of Dalian bound for Europe. But instead of setting a southerly course that would take the ship through the Strait of Malacca and across the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal and European markets beyond, the Rotterdam-bound Yong Sheng turned northeast, toward Alaska and the Arctic Circle. It is the first Chinese commercial cargo ship to attempt the Northeast Passage, a short-cut that runs north around the Eurasian continent, shaving as much as two weeks off the journey from China to Europe, China's largest export market.

????A warming climate and melting ice sheets are opening up Arctic sea lanes for longer and longer periods each year, creating a three- to four-month window in which conventional ships can operate amid the ice flows and icebergs above the Arctic Circle. But the Northeast Passage, like the long-sought Northwest Passage across the icy waters north of Canada, remains a treacherous place for ships to operate, especially those lacking ice-hardened, reinforced hulls. For the commercial interests that want to operate there -- primarily oil and gas exploration companies and commercial shippers -- all that melting ice represents something of a double-edged sword, allowing conventional vessels into the Arctic while at the same time making it a more dangerous place to operate as ice flows and other potential hazards become less predictable.

????A few years ago, defense contractor Raytheon (RTN) began developing a new Arctic navigation system that allows conventional, non-ice-hardened ships to operate in the Arctic not through reinforced hulls or better icebreakers, but through better information and enhanced situational awareness. By merging data from an increasing number of sources ranging from legacy technologies like satellites and sonar to next-generation systems like unmanned aircraft and submersible underwater robots, the company has created a tidy software solution to a vexing hardware problem -- a means to navigate the Arctic with precision in a conventional, non-ice-hardened hull. The U.S. Navy, eager to expand its own Arctic capabilities, has already taken the technology for a successful 30-day spin through the Arctic in a conventional, non-reinforced vessel. And as higher average temperatures continue to open up sea lanes, the Raytheon Arctic Monitoring and Prediction (RAMP) system could potentially open the once-impassible Arctic to a commercial shipping industry that moves more than $4 trillion worth of cargo over the ocean every year.

????"One of the biggest challenges up there is maintaining vigilance with respect to ice and ice flows," says Tim Raglin, program manager for Raytheon's innovation and prototyping team. "Even in waters that termed 'ice free,' we discovered that that's a misnomer--that actually means they're mostly free of ice, that there's still icebergs and other ice hazards in the water. So there's a critical need for situational awareness up there, and unless you're going to go to the expense and effort to redesign and ice- harden a number of ships, this is a very cost-effective way of enabling Arctic operations."

????The lack of situational awareness in the Arctic stems from several problems inherent in the Arctic itself. There are relatively few satellites -- communications, mapping, or otherwise -- covering the Arctic, so there's very little information for ship navigators to access as well as limited means to transmit or receive it. Likewise, since there are so few ships operating there there's little anecdotal information shared between vessels. The Arctic is something of a data desert, leaving navigators to pilot blindly in some of the world's most unforgiving waters.