請勿放棄埃及民主
????在華盛頓,有這樣一個觀點日漸盛行:埃及悲劇的延續證明,盡管埃及軍隊得到了美國的大力支持,但美國已經失去了在全球這個關鍵地區的影響力。雖然這個觀點沒錯——因為鑒于埃及目前的局勢,如今,任何外國機構都無法進行有效的干預——但它應該作為文章的前言而不是結語。而且在埃及這一阿拉伯世界人口最多的國家,目前的悲痛局勢將具有深遠的意義。 ????很多國家都對埃及目前的局勢感到恐慌、擔憂和沮喪,美國只是其中之一:恐慌的是大量、不斷上升的人員傷亡數量;擔憂的是最近的局勢讓國家離穩定的經濟、金融、政治和社會環境漸行漸遠;沮喪的是無法給予幫助,包括全國和解的推行。 ????美國感到格外惱火自然有它的理由。 ????自上個世紀70年代中期安瓦爾?薩達特歷史性地做出脫離蘇聯的決策之后,美國就一直是埃及最緊密的盟友。它每年提供超過10億美元的援助,同時還幫助訓練埃及的軍隊。這兩個國家聯合開展反恐行動。多數埃及人崇拜美國的創業精神,言論自由和法治。然而,自2011年1月解放廣場民眾起義以來,奧巴馬總統不顧埃及政治的極端不穩定性,大力奉行政治平衡策略,還迅速改變了埃及國內的聯盟。 ????可以理解的是,鑒于這種初始條件,很多人認為美國應在埃及死亡暴力事件的抵制方面發揮更為有效的作用。確實,在眼下危險不斷升級的時期,美國的聲音可能是埃及倍感自豪的歷史中唯一有效的外來理性聲音。 ????然而,美國總統周四高明的演講和取消援助的威脅似乎都無關痛癢。連奧巴馬也承認,更糟糕的是,各方都認為美國在耍陰謀論,包括美國的支持者前總統穆罕默德?穆爾西以及他的反對派。 ????難怪很多人傾向于將這種局勢看做是美國缺乏政治影響力的集中體現。但是為了繼續討論這一話題,我們有必要記住4點——因為這4點對于今后的局勢尤為重要。 ????首先,埃及目前的局勢實際上是有利于國家(和地區)長期利益的負面表現,這是民眾在經歷了長期的壓迫和恐懼氛圍之后所表現出的實質性的政治覺醒。 ????2011年1月的民眾起義讓埃及民眾獲得了很多人認為不大可能獲得、甚至是難以想象的權力。事實上,多數公民的地位與國內備受壓迫、沒有土地的農民無異,他們通過起義轉而獲得了話語權以及國家未來的決策權,而這個國家之前的服務對象僅僅是少數特權人士。 ????民眾在2011年1月走上街頭,要求結束穆巴拉克長達30年的鐵拳專政。去年,首屆臨時軍閥統治者在向民選政治領袖移交政權之際故意拖延,人們再次回到街頭。他們于幾周前再次起義,抗議總統沒能滿足人民的訴求,而且更為重要的是,他們抗議總統意欲超越法律賦予的權力等事宜。 |
????Increasingly, the unfolding Egyptian tragedy is seen in Washington circles as confirmation that the U.S. has lost influence in a critical part of the world, and particularly vis-à-vis a military that receives lots of American support. While correct -- given Egypt's current realities, no foreign entity has any meaningful influence these days -- this observation should serve as the beginning of the analysis rather than its conclusion. And the insights extend well beyond the sad circumstances of the Arab world's most populous country. ????The U.S. is on a long list of advanced and developing countries expressing dismay, concern, and frustration with what is happening in Egypt: dismay at the enormous and growing civilian casualties; concern that recent developments are taking the country even further away from economic, financial, political, and social stability; and frustration with the inability to help, including in promoting national reconciliation. ????The U.S. has reason to feel even more exasperated. ????Following President Anwar Sadat's historic pivot away from the Soviet Union in the mid-1970s, America has been Egypt's closest ally. It provides over $1 billion of aid per year, together with training for the Egyptian military. The two countries partner in fighting terrorism. Most Egyptians admire Americans' entrepreneurship, freedom of expression, and rule of law. And, since the January 2011 popular uprising that started in Tahrir Square, President Barack Obama has struck an impressive political balancing notwithstanding Egypt's extreme political fluidity and rapidly shifting domestic alliances. ????It is understandable that, with such initial conditions, many feel that the U.S. should be playing a more effective role in countering the deadly violence in Egypt. Indeed, the U.S. may be the only effective external voice of reason during an increasingly dangerous phase in Egypt's proud history. ????Yet neither the President's wise speech on Thursday nor the threat of aid cutoff seems to have an impact. To make things worse, and as acknowledged by President Obama, the U.S. finds itself in the midst of conspiracy theories originating from all sides, including from both supporters of former President Mohamed Morsi and his opponents. ????No wonder so many are inclined to characterize the situation as highlighting America's lack of political clout. But in pursuing this narrative, it is important to remember four points -- especially as they also speak to forward-looking responses. ????First, what is happening in Egypt is the dark side of a phenomenon that could actually be in the country's (and the region's) longer-term interest -- that of a material grass-root political awakening after a prolonged period of repression and culture of fear. ????The January 2011 popular uprising enabled and empowered average Egyptians in a manner that many thought unlikely if not unthinkable. In effect, most citizens went from the equivalent of oppressed landless-peasants in a nation run to benefit a small privileged elite, to having a voice and an influence on the country's destiny. ????They took to the street in January 2011 to remove a Mubarak regime that had ruled with an iron fist for 30 years. They returned last year when the first set of transitional military rulers dragged their feet in handing off to democratically elected politicians. And they were back a few weeks ago to counter a president who was failing to deliver and, more importantly, was seeking to overreach on legal and other matters. |