????美國正式告別信貸緊縮。

????自從本輪金融危機爆發以來，美國銀行業的貸款規模終于第一次超過了2008年底的水平。7月中旬，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)公布帶有時滯的數據顯示，美國銀行業貸款余額達到了7.33萬億美元。這個數字略高于2008年10月、上次美國銀行業貸款規模見頂時的7.32萬億美元。

????但貸款增速仍然保持低位，增長也不均衡。今年前三個月貸款出現下降后，二季度又現反彈。增加的貸款不少發放給了企業借款人。

????銀行研究公司Bankregdata.com的統計顯示，過去兩年工商業貸款余額增長了27%。同期，個人住房抵押貸款僅增長了4%，雖然最近出現了一股再融資熱，目前看來可能已經見頂。只有很少的抵押貸款是用于新購住宅。信用卡貸款增長了不到0.5個百分點。但汽車貸款增長了15%。

????信貸緊縮在美國經濟歷史上較為罕見，往往也不會持續很長時間。2000年左右的經濟衰退后，銀行業貸款回升花了1年多一點的時間。20世紀80年代末和90年代初，貸款一度增長緩慢，但從未真正下降。最近這次信貸緊縮持續的時間差一點就達到了5年，似乎是美聯儲1947年以來數據庫中規模最大、持續時間最長的一次。

????一路走來，經濟學家們激辯此次信貸緊縮究竟是因為銀行惜貸，還是貸款需求缺乏。很多政客歸咎于銀行。確實，金融危機爆發之后，要獲得一筆住房貸款看起來要比過去困難得多，但也有很多人認為，金融危機前的貸款標準可能過于寬松了。另外，最近銀行存款的增長快于貸款，意味著人們存入銀行的錢流回經濟體系的比例在下降。

????全美獨立企業聯盟(NFIB)首席經濟學家比爾?登科伯格表示，根據他在整個信貸緊縮期間對小企業主進行的調查顯示，小企業獲得貸款的能力幾乎沒有出現下降。登科伯格說：“我們真正看到的是不想貸款的企業比例接近歷史高點。”

????不過，有積極跡象顯示貸款增長將持續，只是增速比較緩慢。最近的美聯儲借款人調查發現，銀行終于開始降低個人獲取住房、汽車和信用卡貸款的門檻。調查還表示，企業獲取貸款的難度也在下降，而且這個趨勢正在強化。貸存比一年多來首次上升，但略高于70%的水平仍接近歷史低點。過去銀行業總是將90%的存款用于放貸。

????在最近的一份分析報告中，投資公司Sterne Agee的銀行業分析師托德?海格曼預測，2014年和2015年貸款將加速，但估計增速只有2005年左右增速的一半左右。當然，這依然是一件好事。（財富中文網）?

????We are officially uncrunched.

????For the first time since the start of the financial crisis, banks have more lent out then they did in late 2008. In mid-July, according to the Federal Reserve, which reports the figures with a lag, banks had $7.33 trillion in loans outstanding. That was slightly more than the $7.32 trillion banks had extended in October 2008, the last time credit peaked.

????But the growth in lending has remained slow and uneven. Lending in the first three months of the year dropped, before rebounding in the second quarter. And much of the rebound in lending has been to corporate borrowers.

????The volume of commercial and industrial loans outstanding is up 27% in the past two years, according to Bankregdata.com. Consumer mortgage credit, however, is up just 4% in the same time, despite a recent refinance boom, which appears now to have peaked. Very little mortgage lending was for new purchases. Credit card lending is up less than half a percent. Auto loans, though, are up 15%.

????Credit crunches are rare in American economic history, and don't tend to last long. It took slightly more than a year for lending to recover after the early 2000s recession. Credit grew slowly in the late-1980s and early 1990s, but never really dropped. The recent credit crunch, which clocks in at just under five years, appears to be the largest and longest in the Federal Reserve's database, which only goes back to 1947.

????Along the way, economists have debated whether the credit crunch was being driven by banks being unwilling to lend, or from a lack of demand for loans from borrowers. Many politicians blamed the banks. It does appear that getting a home loan became much tougher after the financial crisis, though many would argue it was too loose before it. And recently deposits at the banks have been rising faster than loans, meaning less of the money people are putting into banks is making its way back out into the economy.

????Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, says his surveys of small business owners throughout the credit crunch show that there was little drop-off in the ability of small businesses to get loans. "What we really saw was a near record high percentage of businesses who don't want a loan," says Dunkelberg.

????Still, there are positives signs that lending growth will continue, albeit slowly. The Federal Reserve's most recent survey of lenders found that banks are finally making it easier for individuals to get home, car and credit card loans. The survey also said that the trend toward easier loans for businesses is improving. And the ratio of loans to deposits rose for the first time in over a year, though at just over 70% it is still near all-time lows. Banks used to lend out 90% of their deposits.

????In a recent analyst note, Sterne Agee bank analyst Todd Hagerman predicted that lending will pick up in 2014 and 2015, though he still expects the growth will be about half what it was in the mid-2000s. That, of course, could be a good thing.