????所以，較弱的營收指南更多地是向華爾街虛晃一槍，而并不是為了起到預警作用。畢竟，LinkedIn正在轉向全新的廣告營收模式，例如贊助動態——在LinkedIn的新聞源中插入廣告，許多廣告主表示這個模式的點擊比是展示廣告等傳統模式的五倍以上。

????不過，發布低于預期的投資指南存在不少風險。其一是，連續多年祭出這招后，投資者都已經心知肚明了。因此，正如我們所見，LinkedIn發布財報后，它的股價出現反彈，可見市場對其給出的較弱營收預期根本不以為然。這種花招已失去作用了。不管你示弱還是高調，大家每個季度都會期待你創造奇跡。

????英特爾（Intel）和微軟（Microsoft）也曾經是個中好手。Ebay在輝煌時期也曾玩得游刃有余。更近的例子則要數蘋果公司（Apple）。在iPhone和iPad的增長超出幾乎所有人預期的那幾年，蘋果一直在玩這個把戲。后來，上述所有公司的增長都開始降溫。增長并沒有消失，甚至沒有顯著放緩，只是沒法達到人們過高的預期。說來也奇怪，上述公司將收入指引定得較低反倒推高了市場對其業績的預期。

????投資者出高價購買LinkedIn的股票本質上是看好它新的增長領域。因此，新的增長點對于LinkedIn的股價的前景特別重要。LinkedIn將贊助快訊（Sponsored Updates）稱為“一種更可持續、可伸縮的內容營銷模式”。LinkedIn正試圖成為人們分享同自身職業生涯相關的新聞與信息的平臺，用以補充原本依賴求職的商業模式。上季度，LinkedIn廣告驅動的營銷解決方案部門收入在公司收入中占比達到24％，較之兩年前的33％有所下降。

????即使LinkedIn新聞源的廣告增多，同時LinkedIn正在進軍海外市場，同時對知名作家開放自身平臺，仍然難以證明多頭投資者對這家公司增長前景的樂觀理所應當。眼下，LinkedIn的股價是其每股預期收益的17倍，是其2013年每股盈利的150倍。它真實的市盈率為106。這就是說，即使Linked的股價在今后一年半不再上漲，它的股價仍將是目前每股盈利的100倍。

????這就是成功的悖論：有時候，公司表現太好，以至于人們對它產生了不現實的期望。LinkedIn可能就面臨這樣的境況。它上佳的表現導致人們對它期望極高，這也反映在其高企的股價上。然而，歷史告訴我們，期望越高，最后失望往往越大。（財富中文網）

????譯者：項航??

????So the weak revenue guidance was seen as one more attempt to lowball Wall Street's expectations rather than a warning. After all, LinkedIn was transitioning to new ad-revenue models like Sponsored Updates, ads inserted into the LinkedIn feed that some advertisers said generated five times as many leads as banner ads and other paid channels.

????There are, however, a couple of risks involved with the game of guiding investor expectations low. One is that after a couple of years of this people begin to expect it of you. As we saw in the post-earnings rally of LinkedIn shares, the market shrugged off disappointing guidance for this very reason. The trick begins to lose its impact. Great things are expected of you each quarter, whether you downplay them or not.

????Once, Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) were very good at this game. Ebay (EBAY), in its glory days, was too. More recently, Apple (AAPL) played it during the years when the iPhone and iPad were delivering growth that exceeded almost everyone's expectations. Then, in all of those companies, the growth began to cool. Not disappear or even slow significantly, but simply to not meet the heightened expectations that the low-guidance game had perversely created in the market.

????New growth areas are what investors are essentially betting on when they bid LinkedIn shares higher. That's what makes them especially crucial to the future of LinkedIn's stock. LinkedIncalled Sponsored Updates "a more sustainable and scalable content marketing model." The company is trying to supplement a business model dependent on job searches to also become a site where people share news and information of interest to their work lives. LinkedIn's ad-driven marketing solutions unit made up 24% of revenue last quarter, down from 33% two years earlier.

????Even with more ads in LinkedIn feeds, with LinkedIn pushing into overseas markets and with it opening up its platform to well-known writers, it's hard to justify the optimism bulls have about the company's growth prospects. The stock is trading at 17 times its estimated revenue and 150 times its earnings for 2013. It's trading at 106 times earnings. Which means that even if Linked stayed flat for a year and a half, it would still be priced at 100 times its current profit.

????It's a paradox of success: Sometimes companies do so well their expectations can become hard to meet. It may be that's starting to be the case with LinkedIn. Good word about the company has priced the stock for perfection. As history has shown, priced to perfection often means, in time, priced to disappoint.