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LinkedIn風光背后現隱憂

LinkedIn風光背后現隱憂

Kevin Kelleher 2013-08-14
LinkedIn于2011年5月以每股45美元的價格上市之后,股價26個月上漲了四倍多,本周更是創(chuàng)下了每股237.96美元的新高,在Zynga、Groupon等眾多同類公司中鶴立雞群,甚至連Facebook也相形見絀。不過,正因為如此,大家對它的期望值也越來越高,公司未來的增長會面臨額外的壓力。

????目前,商務社交網站LinkedIn在各方面似乎都順風順水。只有一個問題,那就是,地球人都知道,LinkedIn正風光無限。

????這對LinkedIn的業(yè)務而言不見得是件壞事。事實上,這可能有利無害。隨著這家公司進軍國際市場,力爭成為實時商業(yè)新聞的交流中心,同時與LinkedIn平臺上的企業(yè)以及開發(fā)商結成伙伴關系,良好的口碑絕對是個加分項。

????最有助于打造良好口碑的莫過于飆升的股價。而這對LinkedIn來說可能就是問題所在。過去幾年,投資者對于在公開市場上市的網絡股多持懷疑態(tài)度。團購網站Groupon等公司雖然增長迅速,但虧損嚴重。而社交游戲公司Zynga等公司的商業(yè)模式很快就陷入不利境地。不過,LinkedIn在這方面是個例外。跟這些同行比起來,它可算得上是鶴立雞群。

????2011年5月,LinkedIn計劃以每股32美元的發(fā)行價上市,但最終其發(fā)行價被上調至每股45美元。之后,在26個月內,它的股價上漲了四倍多,在本周早些時候創(chuàng)下每股237.96美元的新高。相比之下,Groupon目前的股價比自身發(fā)行價低了47%,而Zynga更是低了71%。

????即便去年夏天Facebook命運多舛的IPO讓整個互聯(lián)網IPO陷入低潮,但LinkedIn卻幸免于難。LinkedIn專注于專業(yè)市場,這使它更像一家面向企業(yè)的網站,而不像其它面向個人用戶的社交網站,只能依靠兜售廣告為生。

????憑借近期喜人的財報,Facebook股價回升,而LinkedIn的股價則持續(xù)上漲。在Facebook上市后的頭一年股價一直萎靡不振,投資者紛紛轉而投資同為社交媒體的LinkedIn,現在這種情形可不會出現了,因為Facebook的股價已經突破了每股38美元的發(fā)行價。LinkedIn上季度營收增長強勁,首次推動股價在過去兩周上漲了18%。

????不過與Facebook不同,LinkedIn的財報可謂喜憂參半。它的營收同比增長了59%,這很好。但LinkedIn預測本季度營收約為37億美元,低于分析師38.4億美元的預期。

????市場反應很大程度同華爾街對LinkedIn的看法相關。這家公司季復一季地貢獻著強勁的營收和營業(yè)利潤,許多分析師都想知道社交網絡的賺錢極限究竟在何處。LinkedIn最大的法寶是招聘解決方案,這也是商業(yè)網絡的核心所在。每個季度,LinkedIn的營收指導都比較低,而在公布營收時,無一不輕而易舉地超過了預期。

????Everything seems to be going right for LinkedIn (LNKD) these days. Except for maybe one thing: Everyone and their dog knows that everything is going right for LinkedIn.

????That's not necessarily a problem for LinkedIn's business. In fact, it could help. As the company broadens into international markets, as it pushes toward new goals like being a clearinghouse for realtime business news, and as it partners with companies and developers on its LinkedIn Platform, positive-word-of mouth can only help these efforts gain traction.

????Few things offer better word of mouth than a rocketing stock price. And that may present LinkedIn a problem. During the past few years, investors were skeptical about web companies that listed on public markets. Some, like Groupon (GRPN), went public with fast growth but big losses. Others, like Zynga (ZNGA), listed with a business model that soon ran into headwinds. LinkedIn was always the exception disproving the rule, the star pupil in a less-than-impressive class.

????In May 2011, LinkedIn planned to go public at $32 a share before the offering price to $45 a share. Then In 26 months on the market, the price of those shares have risen more than five times over, rising to a record high of $237.96 a share earlier this week. By contrast, Groupon is 47% below its offering price, and Zynga is 71% below.

????Even after Facebook's (FB) problematic IPO last summer dampened interest further in web IPOs, LinkedIn thrived. The company's focus on the professional market made it seem more like an enterprise play rather than a consumer social network trying to sell mostly ads.

????Now that Facebook's strong earnings report has reignited its own stock rally, LinkedIn's continues to rise. Investors who harbored their social-media money in LinkedIn during the dog days of Facebook's first year as a public company aren't selling now that Facebook is trading above its own offering price of $38 a share. LinkedIn is up 18% in the past two weeks, propelled in good part by its own strong growth last quarter.

????But unlike Facebook, LinkedIn's report was seen as a mixed bag. Yes, revenue grew 59% on year, but the company forecast revenue in the current quarter to be around $370 million, below the $384 million analysts had been modeling.

????Much of this reaction has to do with the view that Wall Street has taken of LinkedIn. The company delivered quarter after quarter of robust revenue growth and operating profits at a time when many wondered how social media sites could be monetized. LinkedIn relied heavily on its hiring solutions, a service built upon the business network at its core. Each quarter, the company guided expectations low, then hopped easily over the bar once it came time to announce results.

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