新一屆美聯(lián)儲主席無獎大猜想
????新任美聯(lián)儲主席兩大熱門人選拉里?薩默斯（左）與詹尼特?耶倫。
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????誰將成為美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve）下一屆主席：拉里?薩默斯，還是詹尼特?耶倫?我已經(jīng)有了答案。真的，不騙你。 ????我是怎么知道的？要預(yù)測誰會成為下屆美聯(lián)儲主席其實很容易，這一點你可能也知道。 ????2004年11月，美聯(lián)社（Associated Press）稱，有三位經(jīng)濟經(jīng)濟學(xué)家可能接替時任美聯(lián)儲主席艾倫?格林斯潘，其中并沒有本?伯南克。那篇文章稱伯南克是一匹“黑馬”。同年12月份，《紐約時報》（New York Times）稱，哥倫比亞大學(xué)（Columbia University）經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、前總統(tǒng)喬治?W?布什的顧問格蘭?哈勃德是顯然的領(lǐng)跑者。 ????2005年1月，保羅?克魯格曼在《紐約時報》撰文稱，伯南克也有可能，但這只是因為哈佛（Harvard）經(jīng)濟學(xué)家馬丁?菲爾德斯坦由于曾經(jīng)批評羅納德?里根而被共和黨人冷落。據(jù)《商業(yè)周刊》（Businessweek）報道，到了5月份菲爾德斯坦已重回首位。10月份就在伯南克最終被選中出任新一屆美聯(lián)儲主席前不久，《財富》雜志（Fortune)記者賈斯汀?福克斯撰文稱，誰來接替格林斯潘真的不重要。所謂的經(jīng)濟周期波動“大緩和”(great moderation，當(dāng)時有一種觀點認(rèn)為，深度經(jīng)濟衰退已經(jīng)成為歷史)和經(jīng)濟理論進步已經(jīng)使得美聯(lián)儲的政策調(diào)控很大程度上變成自動駕駛模式。福克斯寫道：“當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲主席已經(jīng)沒過去那么難了。”真的是這樣嗎？ ????我不想犯同樣的錯誤，因此我花了很大力氣來預(yù)測誰將拿下美聯(lián)儲頭把交椅。 ????根據(jù)我對其他記者文章的粗略統(tǒng)計，耶倫看起來在警告樓市泡沫方面做得不錯。薩默斯在應(yīng)對樓市泡沫破裂方面做得不錯，雖然也有人認(rèn)為，話說回來，當(dāng)初正是他在上世紀(jì)九十年代任美國財長時解除對金融市場的管制造成了這個問題。因此，我猜耶倫有些優(yōu)勢。 ????耶倫是量化寬松政策的創(chuàng)始人之一，美聯(lián)儲的這個債券購買刺激計劃降低了利率，推高了股市。樓市和企業(yè)貸款也在增長。這項政策也沒有造成有些人擔(dān)心的超高通脹。而另一方面，薩默斯經(jīng)常抨擊量化寬松政策，要么指責(zé)政策沒有效果，要么大談特談它可能引發(fā)的災(zāi)難。不過，薩默斯的支持者表示，假如他被任命為美聯(lián)儲主席，他會全力贊成延續(xù)量化寬松政策。應(yīng)此給薩默斯加一分。 ????耶倫是一個善于打造共識的人。薩默斯愿意違背自己的想法。兩人各得一分。 ????當(dāng)然，這都不重要。真正重要的是誰支持你。因此，你真正需要知道的是在經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、前政府官員、政客以及迄今為止支持薩默斯或耶倫的大嘴們中間，誰能決定下屆美聯(lián)儲主席人選。
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????Who will be the next head of the Federal Reserve: Larry Summers or Janet Yellen? I have the answer. Really. ????How do I know? Because, as you may know, predicting who will be the next Fed chair is easy. ????In November 2004, the Associated Press said there were three economists who were likely to replace then-Fed head Alan Greenspan, none of which were Ben Bernanke. The article called Bernanke a "dark horse." In December, the New York Times said Glenn Hubbard, a Columbia University economist and former George W. Bush adviser, was the obvious frontrunner. ????By January, Paul Krugman in the New York Times had Bernanke as a possibility, but only because Harvard economist Martin Feldstein was being pilloried by Republicans for once criticizing Ronald Reagan. But Feldstein was back in front by May, according to Businessweek.Fortune's own Justin Fox wrote in October, shortly before Bernanke was finally picked, that it didn't really matter who replaced Greenspan. The so-called great moderation -- there was an idea that deep recessions were a thing of the past -- and advances in economic theory had pretty much put Fed policy on autopilot. Wrote Fox: "Being Fed chairman isn't that hard anymore." How's that for being above the fray? ????I'm not going to make the same mistake, which is why I have put so much effort into predetermining without a doubt who will get the top job at the Fed. ????According to a cursory scan of the work of other journalists, it appears Yellen did a good jobwarning about the housing bubble. Summers did a good job of responding to it when it burst, although some people say his push to deregulate financial markets when he was Treasury Secretary in the 1990s caused the problems in the first place. So edge to Yellen, I guess. ????Yellen is one of the authors of quantitative easing -- the Fed's signature bond buying stimulus program -- which has lowered interest rates and boosted the stock market. The housing market and business lending are also up. It has not caused hyper-inflation as some feared it might. Summers, on the other hand, has repeatedly bashed QE, alternating between saying it does nothing, to expounding on the disasters it could cause. Still, Summers' supporters say he would be all for continuing QE if he were to be named Fed chairman. So point to Summers for flexibility. ????Yellen is a consensus builder. Summers is willing to ruffle feathers and go against the grain. Point. Point. ????But, of course, none of that matters. What really matters is who has your back. So the thing you really need to know to be able to determine, as I have, who will be the next Fed head is the tally of economists, former administration officials, politicians, and just regular blabbermouths who have so far come out in favor of Summers or Yellen. |
