????如果把伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）視為一個風向標，那么這家公司的表現或許預示著美國經濟正在加快復蘇。

????由億萬富翁“股神”巴菲特執掌的伯克希爾公司周五公布的第二季度營收輕松地超出了預期。該公司是一家聯合企業，同時也是巴菲特的投資工具。今年，這家公司的投資和主營業務收入均超過去年。

????伯克希爾公布第二季度的凈利潤達到45億美元，或每股A類股收益2,763美元，輕松超出分析師此前的預期。之前湯姆森路透（Thomson Reuters）調查的分析師給出的預期是每股2,093.73美元。它的保險業務收入增加了13%，但由于該部門成本增加，導致利潤略有下降。2013年第2季度，伯克希爾非保險業務的收入比去年同期增加了1.7億美元。它第二季度的總體凈利潤同比增長了46%。

????此外，巴菲特的投資組合也帶來了豐厚的回報，其中主要以知名公司的大批股票為主，包括美國運通（American Express）、可口可樂（Coca Cola）和富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。

????今年前六個月，伯克希爾的股票持倉規模增長了18%，超出市場總體表現。同期標普500指數僅上漲了13%。

????但很顯然，即便巴菲特執掌的公司也難以回避利率上調帶來的影響。伯克希爾持有的債券投資組合規模下降了7.5億美元，其中大部分由其保險業務持有。

????伯克希爾頗受追捧，一方面是由于“股神”的存在，而另一方面原因在于，對于經濟的其他部分而言，這家公司是相對可靠的領頭羊。

????伯克希爾控制著廣泛的公司業務，包括鐵路巨頭伯靈頓北方圣塔菲鐵路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe），以及從家居建材市場獲利頗豐的其他公司。過去幾年，伯克希爾將大部分現金用于大規模收購，而不是簡單投資股票市場。第二季度，伯克希爾與巴西私募股權公司3G資本（3G Capital）完成了對亨氏食品公司（ Heinz ）的收購。

????伯克希爾公布令人振奮的財報當天，美國政府宣布，7月份美國新增就業崗位僅有162,000個，令人失望。

????但伯克希爾的表現也預示著，美國經濟仍在持續恢復。本季度，伯克希爾鐵路業務的收入上漲了7%，比去年同期增長了4%。而包括本杰明?摩爾（Benjamin Moore）和其他建筑用品公司，以及服裝制造商Fruit of the Loom和Russell等在內，伯克希爾其他制造業務的收入本季度上漲了8%。

????伯克希爾的大規模收購或許將使它成為美國經濟的晴雨表，但這些收購也改變了這家公司的結構以及投資者對它的預期。現在，伯克希爾更多利用其當前業務、而不是投資的賬面價值來衡量收益。賬面價值也是巴菲特最喜歡的衡量標準。因此，公司今年的賬面價值僅上漲了7%，低于巴菲特投資的收益。

????伯克希爾的投資者依舊會自問：這種做法會增加伯克希爾的風險，還是會讓它更安全？目前看來，市場似乎認為伯克希爾更加安全。伯克希爾公司的股價今年上漲了32%。（財富中文網）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????If Berkshire Hathaway is a guide, then the economy may be picking up speed.

????Berkshire (BRKA), which is run by billionaire Warren Buffett, handily beat expectations with its second-quarter earnings on Friday. The company, which is both a conglomerate and an investment vehicle for Buffett, made more money from both its investments and in its operating businesses than it did a year ago.

????Berkshire reported earnings of $4.5 billion, or $2,763 per Class A share, easily exceeding expectations of $2,093.73 per share from analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. While revenue rose 13% in its insurance business line, higher costs in the division led to a slight dip in profits. Berkshire's non-insurance businesses made $170 million more in the second quarter of 2013 than it did in the same period a year ago. Overall, the company's second quarter earnings were up 46% from a year ago.

????Buffett also posted an impressive gain in his investment portfolio, which is dominated by a number of sizable stakes in well-known companies, including American Express (AXP), Coca Cola (KO) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

????Berkshire's stock market holdings rose 18% in the first six months of the year, outperforming the market in general, which was up 13% in the same time, as measured by the S&P 500 (SPX).

????But even Buffett's company wasn't able to dodge rising interest rates. The value of Berkshire's bond market holdings, which are largely held in its insurance businesses, have fallen $750 million so far this year.

????Berkshire is widely followed because of Buffett, but also because it is a relatively reliable bellwether for the rest of the economy.

????It owns a wide variety of businesses including railroad giant Burlington Northern Santa Fe and companies that benefit from home construction. In the past few years, Berkshire has deployed more of its cash on large scale acquisitions instead of simply investing in the stock market. In the second quarter, Berkshire completed its acquisition of Heinz with a Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital.

????Berkshire's positive results came on the same day the U.S. government announced that employers added a disappointing 162,000 jobs in the month of July.

????Berkshire's results, though, suggest that the economic recovery is continuing. Revenue from Berkshire's railroad business rose 7% in the quarter. That was up from a 4% jump at the same time a year ago. Berkshire's other manufacturing businesses, which include Benjamin Moore and other building products companies as well as apparel makers Fruit of the Loom and Russell, rose 8% in the quarter.

????Berkshire's acquisitions may make the company a better barometer for the economy, but these moves have also altered the company's makeup and its prospects to investors. Berkshire now generates far more of its gains in book value, which Buffett says is his preferred metric for success, from its operating businesses rather than its investments. As a result, the company's book value this year is up only 7%, far less than the gains of Buffett's investments.

????Still, investors in Berkshire should be asking themselves if that makes Berkshire a riskier business or a safer one? For now, the market seems to be saying safer. Berkshires' stock is up 32% this year.