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柬埔寨:在腐敗泥潭中尋找騰飛希望

柬埔寨:在腐敗泥潭中尋找騰飛希望

Amy Kaslow 2013-08-06
柬埔寨號稱區域樞紐,同時又擁有低廉的勞動力,充足的土地供應以及豐富的自然資源,同時也擁有發展經濟的強烈意愿。然而,這個地區同時又面臨著基礎設施薄弱,腐敗盛行,疾病蔓延,貧窮落后的現狀,給吸引國際投資,發展本國經濟帶來了重大挑戰。

????柬埔寨農村地區到處都是這樣的“炸彈池塘”。越戰期間,美國的B-52戰機在這個地區投下了大量的炸藥,形成了許多彈坑,積水后就成了今天的炸彈池塘。 攝影:Amy Kaslow
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美國參與其中,希望帶來成果

????美國駐柬埔寨大使威廉姆?托德上任已有一年,但僅僅只是提升了美國金融形象以及柬埔寨的出口可能性,本月早些時候還剛剛舉行了一場網絡研討會和赴美商業貿易代表團。“我們需要重新定義柬埔寨的企業和商業形象,”他最近在《向大使提問》(Ask the Ambassador)的網絡文章中這樣說道。

????托德表示,更多的美元資金將為柬埔寨年輕人帶來更高的工資,降低他們“被販賣的可能性”。柬埔寨70%的人口不到30歲,這樣的人口結構在美國-東盟工商理事會柬埔寨國家經理丹尼爾?漢德森看來令人鼓舞。“如果你在金邊和大學里與年輕人接觸,很多人都非常精明,比一些成人更善于此道……他們使用互聯網,他們傾向于閱讀國際新聞,他們渴望機會,希望能趕上亞洲其他地區。”

????對于絕大多數處于中下層勞動者的年輕人而言,被販賣是真實存在的風險。“一旦人們能夠在自己的國家賺一份養家糊口的工資,就不再需要寡廉鮮恥的中介幫助,”托德說。他還補充稱,美國參與度的上升能增加穩定性。

????貸款機構們警告稱,柬埔寨的經濟增長可能導致過高的代價。鑒于服裝、旅游和農業表現強勁,世界銀行將柬埔寨今年的GDP增速預測值從6.7%調高到了7.0%,預計通脹率為3%。但世界銀行依然拒絕向柬埔寨貸款;2011年由于暴力強制驅逐,世界銀行切斷了向它的貸款。銀行官員們表示,他們會等到大選塵埃落定后再考慮新的貸款計劃。

????柬埔寨需要“基礎公共設施,必備的醫療保健和教育服務”,才能成為一個更加安全的投資地。漢德森表示,“另外,他們還需要發展消費者群體。”相比東盟其他透明度更高、經濟實力更強大的鄰國,柬埔寨尚未培養出一個具有購買力的中產階級。這個國家大約1/3的人口仍然處于貧困線以下。

????洪森宣稱,他已將這個國家從赤貧轉變為距離中等收入國家咫尺之遙的狀態。但就像很多政府管控信息,有關饑餓、就業和工資的官方數據大多與現實脫節。全球觀察人士稱,柬埔寨1/3的人口營養不良,更多人生長發育受阻。大多數高中畢業生的最佳前景是進入一家工廠從事高度重復性的低技能工作,每月賺70-90美元。“如果很出色,”一位使館經濟專員表示,“或許有機會進辦公室工作”,多賺10%。

????農業工人的月工資為40美元。性服務行業的收入明顯高很多,吸引了很多男孩、女孩、男人和女人們,有些人每月收入多達500美元。柬埔寨憲法要求對性交易進行管控,“但這些法律都沒有得到執行,”上述使館經濟專員說。“因此,沒辦法知道究竟有多少人被迫淪為性工作者。”人販子瞄準貧窮的家庭,提出幫他們養孩子,甚至干脆拐走。

In U.S. involvement, hope for good jobs

????After a year into the job, U.S. ambassador to Cambodia William Todd only raised the profile of American finance and export possibilities in Cambodia with a webinar and trade mission to the U.S. earlier this month. "We need to redefine Cambodia's business and commercial image," he declared in a recent Ask the Ambassador online posting.

????Todd says more American dollars will lead to higher-wage jobs for Cambodia's youth and reduce its "vulnerability to labor trafficking." With 70% of the population under the age of 30, the demographics are promising to Daniel Henderson, Cambodia Country Manager for the US-ASEAN Business Council. "If you engage with youth in Phnom Penh and at the university level, many are more worldly, more aware than a lot of adults ... they use the Internet, they're inclined to read international news, and they're hungry for opportunity and to catch up with the rest of Asia."

????For the vast majority of youth hanging from the lower rung of the workforce, falling into human trafficking is a real risk. "When people are able to earn a living wage in their home country, they do not need the help of unscrupulous brokers," Todd says, adding that a larger U.S. presence can lead to greater stability.

????Lenders caution that Cambodia's economic growth could come at too high a price. The World Bank raised its GDP growth estimate from 6.7% to 7.0% this year, given robust garment, tourism, and agriculture sectors, and forecasts inflation at 3%. But the Bank is still closed to Cambodia; it cut off loans in 2011, reacting to the violent forced evictions. Bank officials say they'll wait until after the election results settle before discussing any new loan programs.

????Cambodia needs "basic infrastructure, adequate health care, and education" to be a safer bet, says Henderson. "And they need to develop a consumer base," he adds. Compared to more transparent and economically stronger ASEAN partners, Cambodia has not cultivated a middle class with purchasing power. And roughly a third of the population falls below the poverty line.

????Hun Sen claims that he has moved the nation from abject poverty to within striking distance of middle-income status. But, like much government-sanctioned information, official data on hunger, jobs, and wages hardly reflect reality. Global monitors say a third of the population is malnourished and more have stunted growth. The best prospects for most high school graduates: work in a factory where repetitive tasks require low skills and the pay is roughly $70 to $90 a month. "If you're a rock star," says one diplomatic economic attaché, "you might work in an office" and earn 10% more.

????Farm workers can expect $40 in monthly wages. The sex industry's dramatically higher pay draws boys, girls, men, and women, with some earning as much as $500 a month. Cambodia's constitution regulates the trade, "but the laws are not being enforced," says the diplomatic attaché, "so there's no way to know how many people are enslaved as sex workers." Traffickers target poor families, offering to unburden parents by taking their children, or simply stealing them.

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