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柬埔寨:在腐敗泥潭中尋找騰飛希望

柬埔寨:在腐敗泥潭中尋找騰飛希望

Amy Kaslow 2013-08-06
柬埔寨號稱區(qū)域樞紐,同時又擁有低廉的勞動力,充足的土地供應以及豐富的自然資源,同時也擁有發(fā)展經濟的強烈意愿。然而,這個地區(qū)同時又面臨著基礎設施薄弱,腐敗盛行,疾病蔓延,貧窮落后的現(xiàn)狀,給吸引國際投資,發(fā)展本國經濟帶來了重大挑戰(zhàn)。

????柬埔寨前往全球各大金融中心和市場的招商引資人員總是鼓吹這個東南亞國家的經濟欣欣向榮,屬于地區(qū)樞紐,同時又向全球企業(yè)敞開大門。勞動力成本低廉,土地供應充足,還有豐富的自然資源等待開采。

????但同樣是這個國家,在全球腐敗和侵犯人權排行榜上均名列第十,而且有著沉重的大屠殺歷史。

????面對柬埔寨選民抗議上周的大選結果(這是柬埔寨歷史上操控和腐敗程度最為嚴重的一次選舉),柬埔寨領導人們再也無法回避各種丑聞、經濟困境和系統(tǒng)性腐敗問題。需要解決的問題包括:柬埔寨內資和外資工廠中低技能工人惡劣的工作和住宿條件;暴力“征地”驅逐,肆意將柬埔寨土地轉讓給國內外投資者;遲遲未對前紅色高棉領導人采取法律制裁。20世紀70年代的共產主義革命中,約200萬柬埔寨人被奴役、挨餓和屠殺。

????那些關注柬埔寨市場的人們是不是只需要把這些現(xiàn)實視作在新興市場經商的成本就可以了?

????很多美國企業(yè)都打算進入這個市場,雪佛龍(Chevron)、福特(Ford)和通用電氣(General Electric)早已到來。但目前即使是最積極主張進入這一市場的人們,對于當前是不是時候,也語焉不詳。以康菲公司(ConocoPhillips)為首的藍籌公司聯(lián)盟——美國-東盟工商理事會(US-ASEAN Business Council)最近發(fā)布了一份公報,向會員們通報了柬埔寨的商業(yè)機會近況以及一些令人不安的報道。比如,大批抗議者們要求實施自由公平的選舉,工廠安全措施不到位造成工傷慘劇,以及監(jiān)管改革受阻等等。

????對于可能進入柬埔寨的美國公司而言,是否進入柬埔寨的考量必須超越常規(guī)的風險評估。美國已經有很長一段時間沒有介入這個國家了。從1969年至1972年,深陷越戰(zhàn)泥潭的華盛頓決策者們決定擴大打擊目標。美國B-52戰(zhàn)機在柬埔寨扔下了54萬噸炸彈;平民死亡人數(shù)預計為15- 50萬。這個決定備受爭議,令人深感遺憾,時至今日仍然是一個不可觸碰的痛。

????目前,美國在柬埔寨的活動主要是依托于援助,投資技術援助或“體制建設”。2012年,華盛頓為柬埔寨衛(wèi)生、治理、教育和經濟發(fā)展項目提供了1.213億美元的雙邊援助。

????有些人呼吁美國要增強在柬埔寨的參與度。美國戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)東南亞研究主任歐內斯特?鮑爾表示,鑒于柬埔寨正在與地區(qū)內的民主改革趨勢背道而馳,當前美國的影響非常重要。他說,這個地區(qū)即將迎來“東盟之春”,獨裁統(tǒng)治早已讓位于“新興的對于民權、治理和法制的期待”。柬埔寨是個例外,他說,柬埔寨陷于“政治動蕩之中,應該引起鄰國和東盟盟國,包括美國的擔憂”。

國家領導層令人失望,貧窮盛行

????作為曾經的“鐵腕”領導人、紅色高棉政權的早期活躍成員,柬埔寨首相洪森如今已被邊緣化,沒了聲音,遭到近30年統(tǒng)治期間反對人士的驅逐。國際觀察人士經常譴責柬埔寨選舉的不公平;今年英國觀察人士拒絕返回,稱柬埔寨政府在上次折中的選舉后尚未實施他們的建議。

????洪森勢力強大的副首相索安表示,特別法庭“展現(xiàn)了柬埔寨矢志于法治的決心”以及全新的司法途徑。但是,柬埔寨的司法體系自己也承認,勒索、賄賂和政治游說無所不在。

????Cambodia's promoters fanning out to money centers and markets worldwide pitch the Southeast Asian nation's economy as practically booming, a regional pivot point, and wide open for global business. Labor is cheap, land available, and natural resources ready for exploitation.

????But the same country courting corporations ranks tenth as the most corrupt country on earth and scores just as high among human rights abusers, adding to the deep scars of its brutal past.

????With Cambodian voters protesting this week's national election results -- the most controlled and corroded in the country's history -- the nation's leaders cannot evade the rampant scandals, economic hardship, and systemic corruption the campaign thrust into the spotlight. It's a laundry list that includes inhumane working and housing conditions for low-skilled workers in local and foreign-owned factories; violent "land grabs," forced evictions and unbridled transfers of Cambodian land to local and foreign investors; and the delayed prosecution of former Khmer Rouge leaders charged with enslaving, starving, and slaughtering some 2 million Cambodians during the 1970s Communist revolution.

????Should those eyeing Cambodia's market simply factor these realities as costs of doing business in an emerging market?

????American enterprises are poised to enter the country. Chevron (CVX), Ford (F), and General Electric (GE) are already there. But even advocates of moving into Cambodia equivocate on whether now is the right time to make a move. A recent communiqué from the US-ASEAN Business Council, a blue chip group chaired by ConocoPhillips (COP), updates members on commercial opportunities in Cambodia, along with reports about throngs of protestors pushing for free and fair elections, tragic worker fatalities due to unsafe factory conditions, and stymied regulatory reforms.

????For American prospectors, considerations over whether to enter Cambodia may extend beyond the usual risk assessments. There's been a long lull in American involvement in the nation. From 1969 to 1972, Washington policymakers entrenched in the Vietnam War decided to broaden their targets. American B-52s dropped 540,000 tons of bombs on Cambodia; death toll estimates range from 150,000 to 500,000 civilians. The decision was highly contested, deeply regretted, and still a prickly point.

????Currently, U.S. presence in Cambodia is largely aid-based, with investments in technical assistance, or "institution building." Last year, Washington extended $121.3 million in 2012 bilateral assistance for health, governance, education, and economic growth projects.

????Some are calling for deeper engagement with Cambodia. U.S. influence is crucial now, as Cambodia bucks the democratic reform trend in the region, argues Ernest Bower, the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He says the region is on the cusp of an "ASEAN Spring" with autocracies already giving way to "new and rising expectations for empowerment, governance, and the rule of law." Cambodia, he says, is the outlier, mired "in political instability that should concern its neighbors and ASEAN partners, including the United States."

Disappointing leadership, extensive poverty

????A "strong arm" leader and an early, avid member of the dreaded Khmer Rouge, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen has sidelined, muzzled, and expelled his opposition during nearly 30 years of rule. International monitors routinely condemn Cambodia for unfair elections; this year, British monitors refused to return, saying the Cambodian government had yet to implement their recommendations after the last compromised election.

????Hun Sen's powerful Deputy Prime Minister Sok An, says the Tribunal "demonstrate[s] Cambodia's commitment to the rule of law," and a new, novel approach to justice. Yet, by its own admission, Cambodia's judiciary is rife with extortion, bribery, and political influence peddling.

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