????阿里巴巴（Alibaba）是雅虎（Yahoo）最成功的投資，也是它最棘手的問題。搜索巨頭雅虎持有中國最大的在線零售商——阿里巴巴24%的股權，價值可能超過雅虎的賬面資產總值——160億美元。但未來阿里巴巴首次公開發行——雅虎已承諾屆時出售持有的阿里巴巴股票中的一半，雅虎能兌現的金額可能要少得多。因為阿里巴巴拿到了大多數好牌。

????雅虎在2005年投資了10億美元，其中的收獲就包括阿里巴巴的股權。2012年9月，雅虎以稅前71億美元的價格售出了其中的一半股權。根據一份2012年5月的股東協議的條款，如果阿里巴巴于2015年12月31日前首次公開發行，雅虎屆時將出售其持有的一半阿里巴巴股票。阿里巴巴可以選擇是自己買入這些股票，也可以選擇讓雅虎公開出售。阿里巴巴上市之后，雅虎和其他關鍵股東將面臨一年的禁售期，禁止出售前者的股票。

????募集成長資金的公司通常希望發行價定得高一些，以便只出售盡量少的股份就能募得盡量多的資金。但阿里巴巴不太可能在首次公開發行中籌集新資。這家公司持有大筆現金，最近剛以約4％的利率從銀行借款80億美元。如果只有雅虎出售股份，那阿里巴巴的老板們可能不會太關心初始股價有多高，而是更關心上市后股票的表現是不是足夠強勁。

????（阿里巴巴）抑制價格還有一個原因：Facebook的教訓歷歷在目。美國社交網絡巨頭Facebook在2012年IPO時估值高達千億美元，但隨后它的股價直線下降。Facebook花了整整一年時間，直到本周發布了增勢強勁的營收報告后，股價才得以重回IPO時的水平。雖然絕對數值的意義不如相對估值大，但它的心理效應不容小覷。

????雅虎上月早些時候提交的文件顯示，阿里巴巴2013年第一季度營收為14億美元，同比增幅高達71%。雅虎方面還顯示，阿里巴巴的凈利潤同比大漲189%，達到了6.8億美元，而其運營利潤率高達51%，是2010年以來的最高值。雅虎披露的阿里巴巴財務狀況有三個月的延時。

????分析師預測以及市場傳聞的阿里巴巴600億美元估值實在是低得令人費解。阿里巴巴去年凈利潤約為14億美元，我們假設這家公司在今明兩年都能保持50%的漲幅。據Eikon稱，假如我們采用Facebook預期市盈率的最低值——30倍，那么阿里巴巴的估值應接近1000億美元。

????雅虎有一定的影響力。它在阿里巴巴的董事會派了一名代表，還有權指定一家投資銀行幫助運作任何發售過程。此后，阿里巴巴上市后，雅虎仍將持有阿里巴巴12％的股份。盡管有一年的禁售期，但假如阿里巴巴的股價在首次公開發行后暴漲，那這些股份對雅虎而言也是個安慰。

????眼下首次公開發行的時間尚未確定，仍有時間進行和解。比如，雅虎或許能達成協議，售出自己持有的全部股權，但或許在約定的期限內，分享未來股價上漲帶來的收益。這將需要艱難的談判，但雅虎的投資者很可能會欣賞它徹底從阿里巴巴抽身而退。爭爭吵吵八年之后，阿里巴巴可能甚至準備花錢買個清靜，同雅虎徹底了斷。（財富中文網）

????譯者：項航??

????Alibaba is Yahoo's best investment, and its most frustrating problem. The search giant's 24% stake in China's biggest online retailer is probably worth more than Yahoo's entire booked assets of $16 billion. But a future initial public offering, in which Yahoo has promised to sell half its shares, may deliver much less. That's because Alibaba holds most of the cards.

????Yahoo acquired its Alibaba stake as part of a $1 billion investment made in 2005. In September 2012, Yahoo sold half of its holding in Alibaba for $7.1 billion before taxes. Under the terms of a May 2012 shareholder agreement, Yahoo will sell half of its shares in Alibaba if an initial public offering takes place before Dec. 31, 2015. Alibaba can choose whether to buy the shares or have Yahoo (YHOO) sell them in the offering. After that, Yahoo and other key shareholders will be prohibited from selling stock for one year.

????A company raising growth funds typically wants a high IPO price, to raise the maximum proceeds for the sale of the fewest shares. But Alibaba is unlikely to raise new money in an IPO. It has plenty of cash, having recently borrowed $8 billion from banks at an interest rate of roughly 4%. If the only shares sold are Yahoo's, Alibaba's bosses could be less concerned about a high initial share price and more interested in strong stock performance thereafter.

????There's another reason to keep a lid on the price: Facebook's (FB) experience. The U.S. social network priced its 2012 IPO at a twelve-digit dollar valuation, and then watched its shares fall precipitously. It took over a year and a big boost from this week's earnings report to bring the stock back to its IPO price. Absolute numbers matter less than relative valuations, but the psychology counts.

????Alibaba's revenue increased 71% in the first quarter of 2013 from a year earlier to $1.4 billion, according to filings by Yahoo earlier this month. Earnings increased 189% year-on-year to $680 million in the quarter, according to the Yahoo presentation, with an operating margin of 51%, the highest since 2010. Yahoo discloses Alibaba's headline financial results with a three-month delay.

????Analyst estimates and market chatter of a valuation as low as $60 billion for Alibaba is already puzzling. Suppose the company can ramp up its roughly $1.4 billion of earnings last year by 50% this year and next. Apply Facebook's lowest price-to-forward earnings ratio of 30 times, according to Eikon, and Alibaba should tip the scales at nearly $100 billion.

????Yahoo has some influence. It has a representative on Alibaba's board and the right to appoint an investment bank to help run any offering process. The 12% stake it would still own after an IPO also offers some comfort -- albeit locked up for a year -- if Alibaba shares shoot up after their market debut.

????And with no IPO date set, there's also time for compromise. Yahoo might, for example, be able to strike a deal to sell its entire stake while perhaps also sharing in future stock price gains over an agreed period. That would require tough negotiations, but Yahoo investors would probably appreciate the clean exit. After eight fractious years, Alibaba may even be prepared to pay up to get a clean break of its own.