????最新的標普/Case-Shiller房價指數（S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index）顯示，5月份美國20個主要城市的住房價格同比上漲了12.2%；這項廣受關注的指數常被用來衡量美國住房市場的健康狀況。周二發布的這項數據高于大多數人的預期，創下2006年3月以來的最大年度漲幅。

????自從本輪經濟衰退結束以來，很多人認為一旦美國住房市場復蘇，美國經濟將最終呈現出良好的增勢。但歷史表明，這個流傳廣泛的說法其實并不可靠。住房市場的走向與整體經濟的健康狀況及其走向并沒有太多關聯。

????當然，這并不是說房價和銷售不重要。畢竟，美國人的個人財富絕大部分仍然存在于住房，而不是股票等其他資產中。因此，上述說法的邏輯是：如果房價上漲，房屋所有者會覺得自己更有錢了，從而增加支出，進而推動經濟增長。

????巴克萊（Barclays）美國首席經濟學家迪恩?馬吉表示，雖然這種說法一般而言沒錯，但住房市場并不總是與GDP存在清晰的關聯，如今住房市場占美國經濟的比例已大大小于住房市場崩潰前的水平，這一點當然也不會有幫助。相比2005年年中，住房投資占GDP比例創下6.3%的峰值，如今這個比例已經下降到了2.7%。

????僅僅因為住房市場增勢良好并不意味著美國經濟也會出現良好的增勢。歷史上多次出現過住房市場反彈或大幅增長時經濟增長卻沒有那么快的情況，反之亦然。去年，美國住房市場以出乎意料地強勢增長，而美國經濟卻繼續步履蹣跚；住房投資增長12.1%，GDP僅增長了2.2%。而且，在1987年至1999年間，住房投資年化增長率為5.3%，高于GDP的增幅4.5%。

????反之，也有過這樣一些時期，盡管經濟在增長，住房市場卻在萎縮：1965年至1967年間，住房投資年化增長率為-5%，而GDP增長率卻達到了5.1%。

????馬吉說：“我的意思并不是說住房不重要，而是有些時候其他因素可能更重要。”

????巴克萊預計，2014年，美國住房投資預計將增長10.3%，而美國經濟可能只增長2.2%，數萬聯邦雇員正在面臨強制休假，政府項目縮減。盡管這比完全沒增長要好，但這種失衡不容忽視。

????今年早些時候實施的加稅縮支措施將繼續拉低經濟增速，據美國國會預算辦公室（U.S. Congressional Budget Office）估算，今年GDP將由此縮減0.6%。從8月份起，美國開始取消縮支計劃，而且將一直延續到整個2014年。美國國會預算辦公室就此進行的一項單獨研究顯示，取消縮支計劃將在2014年底前增加30萬至160萬新工作崗位；GDP可能因此增加0.2%至1.2%。

????因此，雖然美國住房市場吸引了大量的關注，但它其實并不能真正反映當今的美國經濟狀況。（財富中文網）

????Home prices across America's 20 major cities in May climbed 12.2% higher from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index, a widely watched gauge of the health of the U.S. housing market. This number, reported Tuesday, was higher than most expected and the biggest annual gain since March 2006.

????Since the Great Recession ended, many assumed that once the housing market recovered, the economy would finally grow at a healthy pace. But as history has shown, this is a myth. The direction of the housing market doesn't say a whole lot about the health of the overall economy and where it's headed.

????It's not that home prices and sales aren't important. After all, the vast majority of Americans' wealth is still tied to the homes they own, as opposed to other assets, such as the stock market. And so the thinking goes: If home prices rise, homeowners would feel richer and therefore spend more, which would in turn, drive economic growth.

????While that may generally be true, the housing market isn't always so neatly linked to GDP, says Dean Maki, U.S. chief economist at Barclays. It also doesn't help that the housing market makes up a much smaller share of the U.S. economy today than it did before the market collapsed: Whereas residential investment peaked at 6.3% of GDP in the middle of 2005, it has spiraled down to 2.7% today.

????Just because the housing market grows at a healthy clip, it doesn't mean the economy will. At various points throughout history, housing either rebounded or boomed while the economy didn't grow as quickly and vice versa. Last year, the housing market recovered in an unexpectedly big way while the economy slogged along; residential investment grew 12.1%, but GDP grew only 2.2%. Also, between 1987 through 1999, residential investment grew faster at an annualized rate of 5.3% than GDP at 4.5%.

????By contrast, there were periods when the housing market actually shrunk, even as the economy grew: Between 1965 and1967, residential investment contracted at an annualized rate of 5% while GDP grew 5.1%.

????"The point is not that housing doesn't matter, but there are times when other factors matter a lot more," Maki says.

????For 2014, residential investment is expected to grow 10.3%, while the economy will likely grow only 2.2% as tens of thousands of federal employees face furloughs and cuts to government programs, Barclays forecasts. This is better than no growth, but the imbalance is hard to dismiss.

????Higher taxes and spending cuts that kicked in earlier this year will drag down growth, reducing GDP by 0.6 % this year, according to estimates by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. However, canceling the spending cuts could add between 300,000 to 1.6 million new jobs by the end of 2014; GDP could also be 0.2% and 1.2% higher, according to a separate report by the CBO that looked into the implications of eliminating the spending cuts starting in August and all of 2014.