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經濟衰退催生美國新一代啃老族

經濟衰退催生美國新一代啃老族

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-07-30
金融危機導致大量的人失業。結果,很多人無力買房,同時租房的人數減少;很多人在朋友親戚家暫住,或者與父母住在一起。統計顯示,如今美國有200多萬家庭沒有自立門戶,大量18-34歲的年輕人繼續賴在父母家,無奈地淪為新一代的啃老族。

????對沖基金和私募股權公司推動了美國住房市場的復蘇,它們購入總量越來越少的止贖屋和因財務困難而降價出售的房屋后用于出租,這種情形一直延續到了最近。鑒于房租上漲,而住房自有率降至歷史低點,這項業務看起來是一項獲利頗豐的投資。

????但隨著大投資者們購入房屋用于出租,值得一問的是,年輕家庭需要多長時間才能擁有自己的住房。

????如今,單戶住宅的房租增速已落后于房價漲速。投資者將大量房屋用于出租,但作為租房市場的主力軍,年輕人選擇自立門戶者少于過去。

????首次購房者大幅下降的現象在美國住房市場復蘇的過程中備受關注,這些人通常都是二三十歲的年輕夫婦。失業導致很多人無力買房,也導致租房人數減少;很多人在朋友親戚家暫住,或者與父母住在一起。盡管眼下美國住房市場的很多方面都呈現的趨勢,但二三十歲的年輕人自立門戶的復蘇速度仍然落后于住房價格回升和止贖屋減少的速度。

????房地產網站Trulia的一項分析顯示,18-34歲之間的年輕人與父母同住的比例已經從2007年經濟衰退前的大約27.6%上升到了31%。它導致年輕人自立門戶數大減,而且可能需要相當一段時間才能恢復至正常水平。

????直到2008年,美國每年新組建約110萬戶家庭,原因主要是由于人口增長。現在,這個數字已經顯著下降;從2008年一季度至2011年一季度,每年僅組建45萬戶新家庭。即便在美國經濟回暖的過程中,組建新家庭的狀況也沒有改觀,2012年一季度至2013年一季度,美國僅僅新組建52.1萬戶家庭。

????Trulia經濟學家杰德?科爾科表示,這樣算來美國總共少增加了240萬戶家庭。這個數字超過了兩年時間跨度內新組建家庭的數量。他很大程度上將此歸咎于失業問題。雖然如今的年輕人就業人數已高于一年前,但18-34歲年輕人的就業比例較本輪經濟衰退最嚴重時期的狀況并沒有太大的改觀。2008年年中時的就業比例為71%,但到了2011年年中卻下降到了65%的低點。此后,這個比例已經回升至66.8%。

????科爾科說,年輕人可能需要多年時間,才能積攢足夠的儲蓄獲得屬于自己的住房。的確,那些有工作的年輕人相比沒有工作的同齡人更有可能從父母家里搬出來。但即便如此,2013年有工作的年輕人與父母生活在一起的比例仍然達到了24.6%,高于經濟衰退之前的22.8%。具體是什么原因目前尚不確定,但這個趨勢或許很能說明薪酬滯漲和學生債務問題升級等等。

????鑒于他們現在的生活狀況,值得一問的是投資者們如何能將他們購入的房屋都用租出去。隨著大小公司向鳳凰城房地產市場投入了數十億美元,Fusion IQ的CEO巴瑞?里索爾茨最近也提出了類似的問題:“那么多空置的房子在沙漠的大太陽下烤著,他們究竟是怎么賺錢的?"

????或許,我們應該更深入地探究一下這些啃老族的困境。(財富中文網)

????Until recently, hedge funds and private equity firms drove the U.S. housing market's recovery, buying a shrinking pool of foreclosed and distressed homes to rent. It seemed like a lucrative investment, given that rents were rising while homeownership fell to record lows.

????But as big investors turn into landlords, it's worth asking if any considered how long it could take before junior finally gets a place of his own.

????Rents for single-family homes have now risen slower than property prices. This comes as investors flood the market with homes for lease, but it also comes as fewer young adults -- generally a key market for rentals -- create homes of their own.

????Throughout the housing recovery, plenty of attention has been paid to the sharp drop in first-time homebuyers, typically couples in their 20s and 30s. Joblessness has kept many from buying houses, but that also suggests fewer are renting, too; many are couch surfing at a friend's or relative's, or living with their parents. Even as many aspects of the housing market improve, the recovery in household formation among millennials lags behind improvements we've witnessed in home prices and foreclosures.

????The share of 18 to 34-year-olds living with their parents rose from about 27.6% before the Great Recession in 2007 to above 31%, where it remains today, according to an analysis by Trulia, a real-estate website. Millennials have contributed to the sharp decline in household formation, which likely will take a while to return to normal.

????Up until 2008, about 1.1 million new U.S. households were formed each year, mostly due to population growth. That has declined dramatically; between the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2011, only 450,000 new households a year were created. Even as the economy improves, household formation hasn't -- only 521,000 households were created between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.

????In all, there are 2.4 million missing households in America, notes Jed Kolko, economist at Trulia. That's more than two year's worth of household formation. He attributes a big part of the decline to joblessness. While more young adults have jobs today than a year ago, the share of 18 to 34-year-olds employed hasn't improved much since the worst days of the Great Recession. In mid-2008, 71% had jobs, but that dropped to a low of 65% in mid-2011. Since then, it has risen to 66.8%.

????It could take years before young adults build enough savings to get their own place, Kolko notes. Indeed, those with jobs are more likely to leave the nest than their jobless peers. But even the share of those with jobs living with their parents is higher in 2013 at 24.6% than before the recession at 22.8%. It's uncertain why, but the trend might say a lot about stagnant wages and escalating college debt.

????Given their living situation today, it's worth asking how investors could possibly rent all the homes they bought. It's a similar question Fusion IQ CEO Barry Ritholtz raised recently as firms big and small pour billions into Phoenix real estate: "How the hell can they be making money when there are so many empty houses cooking in the desert sun?"

????Perhaps it would be wise to take a closer look at the plight of mooching millennials.

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