????不久前，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們還認(rèn)為，美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve）旨在促進(jìn)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的寬松貨幣政策可能正在破壞世界其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體。但是，隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)慢慢好轉(zhuǎn)，現(xiàn)在一些國家卻開始擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲打算終結(jié)寬松政策的可能。

????這不僅說明了美聯(lián)儲自大蕭條（Great Depression）以來最大規(guī)模貨幣政策試驗(yàn)的巨大影響力，同時(shí)也彰顯了一個(gè)事實(shí)，即無論美聯(lián)儲何去何從，總有一些央行行長會怏怏不樂。

????美聯(lián)儲主席本?伯南克5月份的一次講話導(dǎo)致金融市場陷入一片慌亂。他當(dāng)時(shí)說，如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢繼續(xù)改善，美聯(lián)儲可能會放慢每月850億美元的資產(chǎn)收購計(jì)劃。鑒于失業(yè)率雖然有所改觀、但仍處于較高水平，這個(gè)假設(shè)影響重大。不過，伯南克本周三重申，如果美國就業(yè)市場突然再次陷入困境，美聯(lián)儲可能會擴(kuò)大每月債券收購計(jì)劃的規(guī)模。

????由于投資者紛紛逃離債券市場，美國國債的收益率在過去數(shù)周直到到本周二和周三回落之前，一直在大幅攀升。

????不過，并不是只有投資者才出現(xiàn)這么大的反應(yīng)。本周二，韓國財(cái)政部長警告稱，如果美聯(lián)儲倉促終結(jié)QE，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能將不得不削減從美國的進(jìn)口。這一點(diǎn)情有可原，如果美元升值（事實(shí)上美元的升值勢頭已經(jīng)維持了幾個(gè)月，而且很可能還會繼續(xù)下去），美國向世界各地出口的任何東西都會變得更加昂貴。

????但是，令人驚訝的是這種口風(fēng)的轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)绱搜杆佟４蠹s一年前，新興市場出口商仍然在艱難地應(yīng)對本幣升值的挑戰(zhàn)。2010年，巴西指責(zé)西方?jīng)Q策者（尤其是美國）發(fā)動“貨幣戰(zhàn)爭”，導(dǎo)致廉價(jià)資金在全球泛濫。它們認(rèn)為，美元幣值將螺旋下降到極低水平，導(dǎo)致新興市場貨幣不斷升值，從而使得它們的出口產(chǎn)品更加昂貴，國家競爭力因此下滑。

????三年后的今天，巴西財(cái)政部長吉多?曼特加和其他人預(yù)警的“貨幣戰(zhàn)爭”并沒有發(fā)生。大范圍的貨幣貶值并沒有掀起一場全球經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。如今，自美聯(lián)儲量化寬松政策開始后大量流入新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的資金正在流出這些國家，因?yàn)橥顿Y者預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲將結(jié)束寬松貨幣政策。一周前，土耳其收緊貨幣政策，試圖推動本幣里拉脫離紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)。如果其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體效仿，市場不會感到驚訝。

????和一些人預(yù)期截然相反的是，量化寬松政策并沒有摧毀美元。美元經(jīng)歷了超過十年的貶值之后，自2011年年底以來已經(jīng)升值了約7%。而且，如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢進(jìn)一步改善，美元走強(qiáng)的趨勢可能會得以延續(xù)。

????韓國可能擔(dān)心美國進(jìn)口的下降，但這些擔(dān)憂更充分的說明一些新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體不僅歡迎、而且也離不開美國的QE。

????伯克利大學(xué)（Berkley University）哈斯商學(xué)院（Haas School of Business）教授詹姆斯?威爾科克斯說：“QE的初衷是讓美國經(jīng)濟(jì)更強(qiáng)。隨著美國人的個(gè)人收入不斷上升，我們將購買更多的日本汽車，拉丁美洲的牛肉干，等等。這將有助于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的出口。”

????所以，盡管新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體不留情面地批評了QE，但是沒有QE，它們的出口增長會更難。（ 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????Not long ago, leaders of emerging economies thought the U.S. Federal Reserve's easy money policies aimed at nursing the American economy back to health might also destroy the rest of the world. But as the U.S. economy slowly improves, some countries now worry that the Fed's stimulus may be coming to an end.

????This not only says a lot about the Fed's biggest experiment in monetary policy since the Great Depression, but it also highlights that no matter what the Fed does, some central bankers won't be happy.

????Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked markets in May when he said the central bank could slow down its $85 billion monthly asset purchases if the U.S. economy continues to improve. That's a big if, given that unemployment, while it has improved, is still relatively high. And if the job market all of a sudden falls back to trouble territory, the Fed could increase its monthly bond purchases, as Bernanke reaffirmed Wednesday.

????Before slipping Tuesday and Wednesday, yields on U.S. Treasuries had risen sharply over the past few weeks as bond investors fled the market.

????Investors aren't the only ones reacting in big ways, though: On Tuesday, South Korea's finance minister warned emerging economies might be forced to cut imports from the U.S. if the Fed isn't careful in unwinding QE. This makes sense -- if the value of the U.S. dollar rises, which it has done for several?months now and likely will continue, whatever America sells to the rest of the world becomes more expensive.

????What's surprising, though, is how quickly the tone has shifted. A year or so ago, emerging market exporters were still battling rising exchange rates. In 2010, Brazil blamed Western policymakers, particularly the U.S., for waging "currency wars" by flooding the world with cheap money. They thought the value of the U.S. dollar would spiral down to oblivion and cause currencies across emerging markets to rise to levels that would make exports more expensive and their countries less competitive.

????Three years later, the currency wars Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega and others warned about haven't emerged. Widespread currency devaluation never set off a global economic disaster. And now much of the money that investors poured into emerging economies after the start of the Fed's QE is now leaving those countries in anticipation of its end. Last week, Turkey tightened policy in efforts to pull the lira off record lows. It wouldn't be surprising if other economies follow.

????And contrary to what some had thought, QE hasn't destroyed the U.S. Dollar. After more than a decade of decline, the greenback has risen by about 7% since late 2011, and the rise will likely continue if the economy improves further.

????South Korea may worry about a fall in U.S. imports, but those concerns say a lot about the way emerging economies have come to not only embrace, but also to rely on QE.

????"QE was supposed to make the U.S. economy stronger," says James Wilcox, professor at Berkley University's Haas School of Business. "With more personal income in the U.S. we would buy more Japanese cars, hydrated beef from Latin America, and so on, and that would help exports across emerging economies."

????So as much as emerging economies have criticized QE, it's harder for them to see how their exports might grow without it.