????今年6月，分析師們紛紛下調了三星評級，結果導致三星（Samsung）市值縮水達13%。大家當時或許以為，三星股價中的所有水份都已經擠干了。但上周五，三星公布了令人失望的業績預測之后，這支股票一天之內再度跌去3.8%。

????分析師們沒有浪費哪怕一秒鐘的時間，馬上把它拿來與蘋果公司（Apple）類比。

????“蘋果苦于iPhone銷售疲軟，而三星則苦于Galaxy銷售疲軟?！比切侣劯灏l布前，Strategy Analytics的尼爾?莫斯頓就在一封發出的郵件中這樣寫道。

????彭博社（Bloomberg）、路透社（Reuters）、《紐約時報》（New York Times）和《華爾街日報》《Wall Street Journal》上周五報道稱，高端智能手機市場正在接近飽和。果真如此，蘋果和三星無疑坐在同一條船上。

????但也有理由認為，三星陷入的困境是自己一手造成的。

????? 讓人震驚的是，對于一個像三星這樣多元化發展的制造業巨頭，它對智能手機銷售的依賴程度甚至可能已經超越了蘋果。手機占到三星上季營運利潤的74%。同季，iPhone貢獻了蘋果52%的營收和65%的毛利潤。

????? 為了推動智能手機銷售，三星可是花了大價錢。上個月，三星在《廣告時代》(Ad Age)美國增長最快的廣告主榜單中排名第一，去年三星的全球廣告預算是43億美元，是蘋果的四倍。

????? 今年三月隆重推出的Galaxy S4被標榜為三星創新典范，一款有望超越iPhone 5的力作。但Galaxy S4的銷售不僅趕不上iPhone 5,銷量下降速度也遠快于iPhone 5。

????? 等到下次蘋果發布新一代iPhone時（時間最早可能是9月份），我們或許會看清高端智能手機市場究竟有多飽和。（財富中文網）

????You might have thought that all the starch had been taken out of Samsung in June when a wave of analysts' downgradestrimmed its market value by 13%. But the stock got hammered again on Friday, losing 3.8% in one trading day following a disappointing earnings forecast.

????Analysts wasted no time making comparisons to Apple (AAPL).

????"Apple is suffering from iPhone fatigue, while Samsung is suffering from Galaxy fatigue," said Strategy Analytics' Neil Mawston in an e-mail sent even before Samsung's press release.

????If the market for high-end smartphones is approaching saturation, as reports in Bloomberg,Reuters, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal all suggested Friday, that would indeed put Apple in the same boat as Samsung.

????But there are reasons to think that Samsung is in a mess of its own making.

????? Astonishingly, for a manufacturing giant as diversified as Samsung, it may have become even more dependent on smartphone sales than Apple. Mobile phones accounted for 74% of Samsung's operating profit last quarter. In the same quarter, the iPhone represented 52% of Apple's revenue and 65% of its gross profit.

????? Samsung spent a fortune driving those smartphone sales. It topped Ad Age's list of the fastest growing U.S. ad spenders last month, and its worldwide ad budget last year was $4.3 billion -- four times Apple's.

????? The Galaxy S4, which the company released in March to such fanfare, was pitched as a showcase of Samsung innovation and its best shot at overtaking the iPhone 5. But sales of the Galaxy S4 couldn't match the iPhone 5's and have tailed off far more rapidly.

????? We may find out just how saturated the high-end smartphone market is when Apple releases its next generation of iPhones, perhaps as early as September.