????中國正努力改變經濟增長方式；當前的增長方式由于包括嚴重的污染問題在內的種種原因已經難以為繼。這對于像中國三一重工（Sany Heavy Industry）和卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）（位于伊利諾伊州皮奧里亞）這樣的企業而言不是什么好消息，因為這些公司指望著受益于中國建筑行業的爆炸性增長。雖然中國央行將擰緊資金龍頭的消息激起了市場反應，但此舉關乎中國經濟實現再平衡的計劃，即（像美國一樣）主要由消費驅動增長，減少對制造業和建筑業的依賴。

????它肯定會減緩中國經濟的發展，但在耶魯大學（Yale University）研究員、前摩根士丹利亞洲（Morgan Stanley Asia）首席經濟學家斯蒂芬?羅奇看來，這是一個好的發展趨勢。

????最近羅奇在《評論匯編》（Project Syndicate）雜志撰文寫道，只要中國能重新平衡其經濟，即使增長速度放慢，仍然可以創造足夠的就業機會，同時減少貧困。

????因為中國舊的增長模式嚴重依賴制造業和建筑業，這些行業更需要機器、而不是人員，所以創造的就業機會少于以服務為導向的經濟體。比如，一個廣告公司依賴于員工的創意，而一個制造廠依賴機器的運轉速度。羅奇提供了一個有趣的統計數據：服務業在單位國內生產總值中創造的就業比制造業和建筑業要多35%。這種狀態很難實現。正因如此華爾街總在討論的一個話題是，中國將會“軟著陸”還是“硬著陸”。中國需要找到一個微妙的平衡，在實施改革的同時避免金融動蕩。

????即使市場對此出現反應，羅奇表示中國央行傳達的信息最終是積極的：“短期內會帶來痛苦，因為它給金融機構施加了較大壓力，但這說明政府真的下定決心改變不可持續的經濟增長方式。”

????周二，中國央行安撫緊張不安的市場，表示將引導銀行間利率趨于合理。目前還不清楚利率將處于什么水平，但這番番言論似乎已經使投資者平靜下來。周一，隔夜貸款利率從6.6%下降到5.8%。6月之前，這個利率更低，約為2%至3%。

????隨著中國繼續實施改革，未來可能還會出現波動性事件。但它們可能利大于弊。（財富中文網）

????China is trying to change the way it grows; it can't continue for a host of reasons, including huge pollution problems. This is bad news for companies like China-based Sany Heavy Industry and Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar (CAT) that have banked on the exploding growth of China's construction industry. And while news that China's central bank will narrow its money spigot has caused markets to react, the move ties to the country's broader plans to rebalance growth so that it's driven more by U.S.-style consumption and less on manufacturing and construction.

????That will surely slow down the Chinese economy -- a welcomed development if you ask experts like Stephen Roach, a Yale University fellow and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia.

????So long as China rebalances its economy, it can still create enough jobs and reduce poverty with slower growth, Roach wrote recently in Project Syndicate.

????That's because China's old model relied heavily on manufacturing and construction, which needed many more machines than people and didn't produce nearly as many jobs as a more service-oriented economy. It's the difference between -- say, an advertising agency that depend on the creative minds of workers vs. a manufacturing plant that count on the speed of machines. Roach offers an interesting statistic: China's services sector requires about 35% more jobs per unit of GDP than do manufacturing and construction.?Achieving this is tricky. And that's partly why we always hear Wall Street ask if China is in for a "soft" or "hard landing." China needs to find a delicate balance between implementing reforms while avoiding financial turmoil.

????Even if markets reacted, Roach says the message delivered by China's central bank is ultimately positive: "It's painful short-term because it puts a lot of pressure on financial institutions, but it's a visible sign of a government that is really determined to change the course of unsustainable growth."

????On Tuesday, China's central bank soothed jittery markets, saying that it would guide interbank interest rates to reasonable levels. It's unclear what those rates might look like, but the remarks seemed to have calmed investors. The overnight lending rate fell to 5.8% from 6.6% Monday. Before June rates were lower -- at around 2% to 3%.

????As China continues to make changes, we'll probably see volatile spurts again. But know it likely has more to do with good news than bad.