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為什么大數據比不上好直覺

為什么大數據比不上好直覺

Tim Leberecht 2013-06-27
大數據可能會給企業帶來很多好處,但不要把它作為新的商業信仰來膜拜。它是一個重要的衡量工具,但并不能衡量一切,還有許多無法量化的東西需要依靠人類獨一無二的天賦來把握。兩者結合才是恰當的做法。

????大數據造成小世界。道德感通過共鳴而增強。矛盾的是,在這個高度連接的時代,我們越來越需要面對一個挑戰:與想法、價值觀、信仰、信念和文化相異的人們交流。數字技術可以根據我們的偏好,為我們定制線上和線下的社交活動,我們越來越沉浸在自己的世界中——正如艾利?帕雷瑟所說的“過濾泡泡”。它通過智能算法,向我們提供熟悉的內容、文化和同伴,同時把這些東西直接砸入我們的舒適地帶。我們不“贊”與我們不同的人和事物,陷入了社會和文化上狹隘的惡性循環。

????大數據讓我們更智能,而不是更有智慧。我們這個數據驅動的世界不僅變得更小,還變得更快。信息的實時傳遞促使我們不斷地立刻做出回應。道格拉斯?洛西科夫打趣阿爾文?托夫勒1970年的著作《未來沖擊》(Future Shock)的書名,將我們現在的狀態稱為“現時沖擊”(Present Shock),他哀嘆,“一切不是發生在當下的事情日益遭到漠視,而一切被認為是發生在當下的事情又讓人應接不暇。”

????數據可以迅速為我們提供信息,不過要快速做出意義深遠的決定,直覺是更好的工具。普拉薩德?凱帕和納威?拉裘在最近的一本書中力勸商界領袖進行“從智能到智慧”的轉變。他們的意見很中肯。擁有智能的公司和領袖依靠持續的反饋成長起來。智能很快,智慧卻很慢。擁有智慧的公司和領袖需要時間來實現轉變。

????大數據(過于)明顯。“你只能管理你所測量到的”——真的嗎?金融危機已經證明我們對于所測量的事物管理得很失敗。失敗的兼并、失敗的產品發布、信譽危機、社交媒體的災難,這一切都證明,我們需要更好地管理那些我們無法測量的事物。

????正如設計界的思想家羅杰?馬丁所言,領袖需要“兼聽則明”。評價21世紀的商界領袖,不再看他/她能排除多少不確定性,而要看他/她能忍受多少不確定性。

????大數據不敵直覺力。數據也許能預測新問題,也許能找到已知問題的新解決辦法,不過只有人類的直覺和巧妙心思才能提出開創性的新想法。這是獨一無二的人類天賦——它遠遠超過解決一個問題,超過滿足某個功能需求的層次。

????同樣的,如果我們量化所有的人際關系,就無法給人類的判斷力留下任何回旋余地。因為我們常常把對人們的感覺和他們的行為混合在一起,我們的判斷力比二進制數字更加復雜。它意味著我們可以對雙重行為有著更細微的評估和反應,我們可以選擇將失敗視為創新的先決條件。很難想象,如果我們喪失原諒的能力,如何還能朝著任何目標前進。

????讓我們抵抗沖向數據的欲望,花時間沉住氣,必要時再加快步伐。讓我們允許自己不時從數據中解脫出來,去思考什么才是真正重要的東西。讓我們用數據來講述自己故事,但不要讓數據成為我們唯一的故事。(財富中文網)

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Big Data creates small worlds. Morality is gained by way of empathy. Paradoxically, in our age of hyper-connectivity we are increasingly facing the challenge of connecting with people whose opinions, values, beliefs, faith, and culture may be unlike ours. As digital technology customizes our social experiences, online and offline, based on our preferences, we are increasingly stuck in our own worlds -- the "Filter Bubble," as Eli Pariser called it, designed by smart algorithms to serve us with content, culture, and company that we are already familiar with and that fall squarely within our comfort zones. We don't "like" the people and things that are unlike us, feeding a vicious cycle of social and cultural narrow-mindedness.

????Big Data makes us smarter, not wiser. Our data-driven worlds are not only becoming smaller, they are becoming faster. The real-time flow of information persuades us to react to feedback constantly and instantly. Playing on the title of Alvin Toffler's 1970 book Future Shock, Douglas Rushkoff calls our current state-of-mind Present Shock, lamenting "a diminishment of everything that isn't happening right now -- and the onslaught of everything that supposedly is."

????Data might give us information fast, but for quick but profound decisions, intuition is much better. Prasad Kaipa and Navi Radjou, in a recent book, urge business leaders to move "from smart to wise." They have a point. Smart organizations and leaders thrive on constant feedback. Smart is fast. Wise, however, is slow. Wise organizations and leaders need time and take it.

????Big Data is (too) obvious. "You can only manage what you measure"—really? The financial crisis has shown that we manage poorly what we measure. And failed mergers, failed product launches, reputational crises, and social media disasters, indicate that we need to get better at managing what we cannot measure.

????Leaders need to have "opposable minds," as design thinker Roger Martin puts it. The business leader of the 21st century will no longer be judged by how much uncertainty he or she can eliminate but by how much uncertainty he or she can tolerate.

????Big Data doesn't give (or forgive). Data might be able to predict new problems or find new solutions to existing problems, but only human intuition and ingenuity can come up with groundbreaking new ideas. That is a uniquely human gift—one that goes beyond merely fixing a problem or meeting a functional need.

????By the same token, if we quantify all of our relationships, we will not leave any wiggle room for human discretion. Because we often have mixed feelings about people and their behavior, our judgment can be more than just binary. This means we can assess and respond to ambivalent behaviors with more?nuance, and we can choose to accept failure as a prerequisite of innovation.It is hard to see how we can make progress towards any goal without an ability to forgive.

????Let's resist the rush to data and take the time to lean back so we can be fast when it matters. Let's grant ourselves a data moratorium from time to time that we can use to reflect on what really is important. Let's use data to tell our stories, but let's not allow data become our only story.

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