????過去10年間，有7大公司在全球互聯網經濟中贏得了巨大的市場份額。其中，美國的幾大巨頭及其各自統領的領域早已廣為人知：搜索領域的谷歌公司（Google，市值2,930億美元），電子商務領域的亞馬遜公司（Amazon，市值1,250億美元）和eBay公司（市值660億美元），以及社交網絡領域的Facebook公司（市值580億美元）。

????知名度稍遜一籌的另外3家公司都在中國：中國領先的搜索引擎百度公司（Baidu，市值330億美元），電子商務領域的江湖霸主阿里巴巴公司（Alibaba，非上市公司），社交網絡及游戲領域首屈一指的騰訊公司（Tencent，市值690億美元）。

????如果未來5年，這些互聯網巨頭中任何一家能繼續維持現在的增長率，都有可能成為全球最值錢的公司。在此期間，互聯網經濟中的這些超級細分市場必將出現日益激烈的競爭。而在本人看來，電子商務市場將是最重要的戰場。

電商市場

????部分分析師認為，電子商務已經是個成熟的、充分滲透的市場了，比如亞馬遜早已高調推出各種網絡服務及視頻流媒體，而eBay的增長率也一直保持在15-20%的高位。但這種看法太簡單化了。從全球范圍看，電子商務將成為規模極其龐大、同時不斷擴張的互聯網經濟形態。

????據美國統計局（Census Bureau）的數據，2012年美國的電子商務銷售總額近2,250億美元，占同期全美商品零售總額的5%以上。美國電子商務下一個增長領域來自本地商業的“最后一英里”，其中用于產品和服務的零售支出中有75%是在離家15英里范圍內發生的。如果電子商務能成功占領這個領域，那么“最后一英里”的市場規模在新一波機遇和增長的推動下可能達到美國電子商務市場現有規模的兩倍、甚至三倍。

????而中國的電商市場可能將比美國電商市場大得多，目前這個市場還只是處于第三輪或第四輪發展周期中。去年中國的網購零售收入是2,070億美元，為同期中國商品零售總額的6%。中國的網民人數一直在增長，而網上購物的滲透率尚不及發達國家的一半水平。

????中國電子商務迅猛增長的勢頭還受到該國相對落后的零售基礎設施的推動。隨著中國直接進入無線通信時代，它可能會通過突飛猛進的電商發展，跳過實體零售店的發展階段。最近，阿里巴巴公司富有遠見的創始人兼執行主席馬云先生預言稱，未來5年中國電商滲透率可能會從今天占商品零售總額的6%猛增至30%，即實現五倍增長。

????Over the past 10 years, seven companies have carved out lion-sized shares of the global Internet economy. The American giants and their respective kingdoms are well-known: Google ($293 billion market cap) in search, Amazon ($125 billion) and eBay ($66 billion) in e-commerce and Facebook ($58billion) in social networking.

????Less familiar are the other three, all based in China: Baidu ($33 billion), the leading Chinese search engine; Alibaba (privately held), the dominant force in e-commerce; and Tencent ($69 billion), the principal player in social networking and gaming.

????If any of these Internet giants can maintain their growth rate over the next five years, it has the potential to become the world's most valuable company. During this period, we will see intensifying head-to-head competition within the super-segments of the Internet economy. In my view, the e-commerce market will become the most important battlefield of all.

The E-Commerce Market

????Some analysts view e-commerce as a maturing and well-penetrated market, pointing to Amazon's (AMZN) high-profile forays into web services and video streaming and eBay's growth rate, which has stabilized in the 15-20% range. Yet this perspective is too simple. E-commerce continues to present a gigantic, expanding pool of Internet economics across the globe.

????In the U.S., e-commerce was nearly $225 billion in 2012, accounting for over 5% of total U.S. retail sales, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The next frontier of U.S. e-commerce growth is within the "last mile" of local commerce, where 75% of all retail spending occurs fifteen miles from home, across both products and services. If successful, this "last mile" market could double or triple the U.S. e-commerce market in a new surge of opportunity and growth.

????In China, e-commerce has the potential to be far larger than the U.S. market and may only be in its third or fourth inning of growth. Online retail revenue in China was $207 billion last year, representing 6% of total retail spending. The population of Internet users in China continues to grow, and the penetration of online shopping in China has not even reached half the levels found in developed countries.

????This "growth on growth" characteristic of e-commerce in China is further fueled by the relative immaturity of the country's retail infrastructure. Just as China jumped straight to wireless communications, China may skip a generation of brick-and-mortar retail build-out through aggressive e-commerce adoption. Jack Ma, the visionary founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, recently predicted that e-commerce penetration in China could grow from 6% today to 30% of overall retail spending in the next five years, implying more than five-fold growth.