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日本太陽能產業直追中國

日本太陽能產業直追中國

Michael Fitzpatrick 2013-06-17
福島核危機之后,太陽能在日本取得了爆炸式的發展,今年一季度日本光伏發電裝機容量增長了270%,相當于7座核反應堆。中國和德國在太陽能領域將遭遇來自日本的挑戰。

????不久以前,可再生能源發電在日本總發電量中的占比還不到1%。但繼福島核危機和隨后大范圍停電后,日本在可替代能源領域的投資呈現出爆炸式增長。特別是太陽能,在這個光照充裕的國家,最近出現了翻天覆地的增長,看上去今年日本就有望繼中國之后成為全球最大的太陽能市場。

????根據能源研究機構IHS對日本能源構成的一份研究報告顯示,日本光伏發電裝機容量(按千兆瓦計)“在2013年一季度驚人地躍升了270%”。它意味著截至2013年底,日本擁有的新光伏發電裝機容量將相當于7座核反應堆。如此大幅度的增長有望在2013年推動日本趕超德國,成為全球按收入計最大的光伏市場。

????“預計2013年日本將安裝價值200億美元的光伏系統,較2012年的110億美元激增了82%,”IHS表示?!跋啾戎拢蚴袌鲱A計將僅微增4%。今年,日本光伏市場收入強勁增長部分是受到了日本的太陽能高電價推動。”不過,德國在裝機總數和裝機容量(32,192千兆瓦)方面仍保持領先。根據總部位于倫敦的彭博新能源財經(BNEF)的數據,日本目前裝機總容量為7,429千兆瓦,更接近美國的8,069千兆瓦。

????日本太陽能占據主導地位是得益于日本政府為可再生能源制造商提供的激勵措施,以及要求公共電力公司以高于市場價格購買可再生能源發電的規定。上屆日本政府制訂了一攬子措施,竭力擺脫日本對石油和核能的依賴,促成了對可再生能源發電實施非常慷慨的政府電力收購制度(FIT)。

????從去年7月開始,日本光伏收購電價為每千瓦時42日元,今年4月調低至37.8日元(約39美分),日本的光伏收購電價是中國和德國的兩倍還多。

????日本地形多山且沿海水深,使得陸上和海上風力發電項目喪失了吸引力。因此,當前太陽能成為了最佳的選擇——自去年7月以來,太陽能項目占到了所有申請清潔能源電價項目的94%。

????日本能源經濟研究所(Institute of Energy Economics)的久司保志(音譯)表示,投資者已經看到了這個趨勢?!半m然日本可利用的土地短缺,很多擁有閑置土地的公司已蜂擁而至。他們利用這些原本打算用于業務擴張(擴張遲遲沒有到來)的地塊架起太陽能電池板,以相當不錯的利潤將發出的電賣給電力公司,從中賺錢?!?/p>

????日本西部上個月投運的一家26.5千兆瓦太陽能發電廠非常具有代表性,它的建設用地很典型,是一家閑置的工廠廠址。這個發電廠足以為9,000個家庭提供電力。久司保志稱,甚至上世紀80年代經濟泡沫時期被封存的高爾夫球場現在也被征用了。

????他說:“異??犊腇IT政策使得這一業務非常有利可圖。投資者爭相申請項目,特別是大型太陽能項目。此類項目在最近日本光伏領域的大幅增長中占據主導地位?!?/p>

????Until recently less than 1% of Japan's electrical power output came from renewables. But following the catastrophe of Fukushima and the power blackouts that followed, Japan has seen an explosion in investment in alternatives. Solar, in particular, in this averagely photon-blessed country, has seen a seismic rise of late and is this year poised to become the world's largest solar market in volume after China.

????According to a report by energy analyst IHS on Japan's energy mix, Japan's solar installations jumped by "a stunning 270% (in gigawatts) in the first quarter of 2013." That means by the end of 2013 there will be enough new solar panels equal to the capacity of seven nuclear reactors. Such massive growth will allow Japan to surpass Germany and become the world's largest photovoltaics (PV) market in terms of revenue this year.

????"Japan is forecast to install $20 billion worth of PV systems in 2013, up 82% from $11 billion in 2012," IHS said. "In contrast, the global market is set for tepid 4% growth. The strong revenue performance for Japan this year is partly driven by the high solar prices in the country." Germany still leads with the total number of units and capacity, however, with its 32,192 megawatts. Japan is now closer to the U.S.'s 8,069 megawatts at 7,429 megawatts, according to London-based BNEF.

????olar energy in Japan has come to dominate thanks to government incentives now offered to the producers of renewables and rules which require public power utilities to buy alternative power at above-market rates. A deal forged by the last government desperate to wean Japan from its addiction to oil and nuclear power led to the implementation of a very generous feed-in tariff (FIT) for renewable power generators.

????Starting at 42 yen per kilowatt hour last July and now reduced in April to 37.8 yen (39 cents) the FIT is more than twice those of Chinese and German offerings.

????A mountainous landscape and deep seas make on- and off-shore wind farms unattractive ventures. So solar, for the moment, is the best bet -- accounting for 94% of all applications for clean energy tariffs since July.

????Investors saw it coming says Hisashi Hoshi of the Institute of Energy Economics. "Despite a shortage of available land in Japan, many corporations who had unused land have rushed in. They can now exploit those plots, once earmarked for expansion that never came, to make money by building solar panels and selling on that energy to the utility companies at a good profit."

????A 26.5 gigawatt solar power plant in western Japan, enough to power 9,000 households, opened last month, typically built on an unused factory site. Even mothballed golf courses from the '80s bubble years are being pressed into productive service, says Hoshi.

????"The ridiculously generous FIT is allowing for a very a lucrative business. It's brought investors scurrying to apply especially for the so-called mega solar projects. Such projects make up the bulk of the vast increase of PV seen in Japan recently," he says.

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