????不斷變化的市場使其他PC制造商不得不更加注重創(chuàng)意，于是促成了葛文德所謂的計算機歷史上史無前例的試驗時期。比如，今年早些時候，戴爾發(fā)布了僅有5磅重的XPS 18一體機。這款機器配有18.4寸觸摸屏，意味著用戶在家中可以隨意移動。而有報道稱臺灣公司宏碁（Acer）將嘗試不同的方向。宏碁下周推出的全新一體機將放棄微軟和英特爾（Intel），轉(zhuǎn)而運行谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）操作系統(tǒng)，同時使用德州儀器（Texas Instruments）的芯片。

????這些產(chǎn)品正是葛文德和高德納研究公司（Gartner Research）的北川美佳子等分析師們對PC行業(yè)保持樂觀的原因。他們認為，即使PC裝機量有所下降，PC行業(yè)依然能夠堅持下去。據(jù)高德納預測，PC裝機量下降的趨勢將從明年首先在美國開始，下降約4%，降至1.8億臺，并在2015年將蔓延至全球。過去，一個三口之家可能有兩至三臺電腦，但北川美佳子預測，這種情形將一去不復返。消費者將使用平板電腦完成大部分任務，而PC將被用于完成一些繁重的任務。

????隨著計算機進一步發(fā)生必要的進化，它們將以更多令人驚奇的形式出現(xiàn)。有些東西已經(jīng)在行業(yè)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)，比如谷歌眼鏡。屆時甚至會出現(xiàn)“嵌入式計算設備”。這類設備的計算活動不需要大量用戶輸入，而是可以跟蹤用戶日常生活：Nest智能恒溫器就是最好的例子。葛文德說：“如果是這樣，那就相當于迅猛龍變成了鳥類。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????The changing market is forcing other PC makers to also get more creative, leading to what Gownder calls the most unprecedented period of experimentation in the history of computing. To wit, Dell launched its XPS 18 earlier this year, a five-pound all-in-one desktop with an 18.4-inch touch screen meant for users to move around the home. Likewise, Taiwan-based Acer will reportedly take a different tack when it announces a new all-in-one desktop next week shunning Microsoft and Intel (INTC), and running Google's (GOOG) Android operating system with a Texas Instruments (TXN) chip.

????Products like these are what make analysts like Gownder and Gartner Research analyst Mikako Kitagawa optimistic the PC will stick around even if the number of "installed" PCs declines, which Gartner predicts will start happening next year in the U.S., falling 4% to 180 million units, and globally in 2015. In the past, a household with three family members might have two or three computers, but that scenario won't happen any more, predicts Kitagawa. They'll rely on tablets for most things, and one PC shared among them to do the heavy lifting.

????As computers further evolve out of necessity, they will yield even more surprising form factors, something the industry is already seeing with Google Glass and even tangentially, "embedded computing devices," devices with computing activity that don't require a lot of user input but track various aspects of users' day-to-day: the Nest home thermostat being one contemporary example. Says Gownder: "In this case, the velociraptor has turned into a finch."