????對于PC制造商而言，查爾斯?達爾文的《進化論》比以往任何時候都要正確：要么適應快速進化的環境，要么滅絕。

????弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）副總裁J.P.葛文德解釋道：“PC行業眼下的狀況像極了《侏羅紀公園》里面的場景。一個小孩子問教授：‘恐龍到底去哪兒了？’教授回答說：‘我們每天都能看到它們：它們變成了鳥兒。’”

?????實際上，PC行業正在快速進化，這已經不是什么秘密，而且這種變化并非完全出于無奈。據全球市場調查集團互聯網數據中心（IDC）統計，上個季度，全球PC出貨量減少了14%，連續四個季度出現年同比下降。而且，預計PC出貨量將繼續下降，至2013年底將下降8%。

????而造成這種狀況的原因主要是平板電腦等移動設備的日益普及。據IDC預測，到2015年，全球平板電腦出貨量將超過PC，達到3.324億臺，而PC出貨量將僅有3.227億臺。對于普通計算機用戶，甚至一些企業用戶，使用平板電腦的優勢非常明顯：既然可以攜帶一款更輕薄、更便宜，而且功能基本相同的設備，為什么還要費勁攜帶一臺筆記本電腦呢？

????傳統PC也到了一個拐點，從百思買（Best Buy）花400美元購買的戴爾（Dell）筆記本電腦可以很好地處理大多數日常任務，而且可以連續使用許多年。以前的情況并非如此，葛文德回憶說：“以前， Windows操作系統每進行一次升級，都需要更強悍的芯片和更強大的計算機，必須有更大的內存和更高的馬力，才能運行新的操作系統。”

????但從微軟的Window 7開始，操作系統在同時代的PC上運行所需要的資源大幅減少。Window 7砍掉了令Windows Vista系統臃腫不堪的許多功能。它意味著，更多用戶、消費者和企業可以在現有的設備上升級操作系統，不再需要更新計算機硬件或者買新機器。

????雖然PC的前景看起來異常嚴峻，但PC不會消失。目前仍有許多任務是平板電腦和智能手機無法完成的，或者至少可以說，完成不好。許多公司，比如聯想（Lenovo），證明這個有數十年歷史的行業依然充滿活力。《財富》雜志（Fortune）最近的一篇文章披露，自從2005年收購IBM的PC部門以來，聯想在PC研發和工廠中的投資使這家中國科技巨頭的規模擴大了三倍，銷售額超過330億美元。它不走尋常路的設計包括廣受贊譽的IdeaPad Yoga筆記本電腦，可從筆記本電腦變成一臺Window 8平板電腦。

????For PC makers, Charles Darwin's Theory of Evolution holds true now more than ever: adapt to their rapidly-evolving environment or perish.

????"The PC industry is like that scene out of Jurassic Park, where the little kid asks the professor, 'What happened to all the dinosaurs?' and he responds, 'We see them everyday: They're birds,'" explains J.P. Gownder, Vice President for Forrester Research (FORR).

????Indeed, it's no secret the PC industry is fast evolving, and not entirely by choice. Shipments of PCs dropped 14% worldwide last quarter, according to the global market intelligence firm IDC, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline. And PC shipments are expected to fall further, as much as 8% through 2013.

????Much of that has to do with the popularity of mobile devices like tablets. IDC projects global shipments of tablets will pass PCs by 2015, with 332.4 million vs. 322.7 million PCs. For more casual computer users, and even some business professionals, the upside to having a tablet is obvious: Why lug around a laptop, when they can tote something lighter, thinner, and often cheaper around with many of the same features?

????Traditional PCs have also reached a point where that $400 Dell (DELL) laptop from Best Buy (BBY) can handle most daily tasks just fine and will be able to do so for several years to come. That wasn't always the case. "It used to be every time you upgraded the operating system on the Windows side, you needed a more powerful chip and a more powerful computer with more memory with more horsepower to run that operating system," recalls Gownder.

????But starting with Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 7, which cut down on the bloat of Windows Vista, the operating system required fewer resources to run on many contemporary PCs. That meant more users, consumers and businesses alike, could upgrade the operating system on their existing machines without upgrading the parts on their computer or buying a new one.

????As grim as their prospects might seem however, PCs aren't going anywhere. There remain tasks tablets and smartphones simply can't do, or at least do well. And companies like Lenovo have proven there's still life yet in the decades-old industry. As a recent Fortune feature revealed, Lenovo's investments in PC R&D and factories have helped the Chinese tech giant triple in size since it bought IBM's PC division in 2005, to $33 billion-plus in sales. Its outré designs include the widely-praised IdeaPad Yoga laptops, which convert from notebooks into Windows 8 tablets.