????通過細加分析，我們就應該可以發現，中國環境惡化問題是解釋這次收購的關鍵所在。數年來觀察人士歷一直試圖弄清楚中國經濟高速增長下水資源、空氣和農田大面積污染所造成的真正后果。分析師們使用了各種預估數據計算污染的經濟成本及對居民健康的影響（污染成本預計介于國內生產總值的5%到8%之間，而具體估測值則取決于統計期限）。這些數字雖然令人震驚，但過于抽象。

????雙匯收購史密斯菲爾德使得這些數字顯得更具體。這次交易背后的真正原因在于，這些有遠見的中國企業家心里非常清楚，由于中國食物鏈多數環節已經受到污染，因此把握未來利潤的機遇還得靠從境外收購整個食品生產鏈。從這層意義上來說，雙匯收購史密斯菲爾德是醉翁之意，既不看中它的豬肉加工技術，也不看中它的高端品牌，而是看中美國安全的農場和干凈的水源供應。

????雙匯的這個戰略算盤打得很高明。中國官方數據顯示，中國三分之二以上的水路都已經遭到污染。20世紀90年代末期進行的一次農田樣本研究顯示，10%的農田受到重金屬污染。2010年完成的一次為期三年的有關土壤條件的全國調查結果肯定也得到同樣驚人的數據，促使環保部宣布相關數據為“國家機密”。

????由于清理受重金屬和其他致癌物質污染的土地和水路需要投入大量的財力和時間，因此收購擁有自有土地、安全水供應的食品生產商這一動機要比其他理由更有份量。

????如果以上分析沒錯的話，那么雙匯收購史密斯菲爾德就是一個未來大趨勢的前兆。面對環境惡化所帶來的災難性后果，中國食品生產商將別無選擇，唯有放眼海外。毋庸置疑，這對于許多企業來說意味著巨大商機。不過可以大致肯定的是，中方加快收購境外食品公司將會給中國和世界其他地區之間造成緊張氣氛。遺憾的是，目前還沒有解決這個難題的好辦法。（財富中文網）

????作者系克萊蒙特?麥肯納學院72級“湯姆和瑪格特?普利茲克”政治學教授，兼美國德國馬歇爾基金會非常駐高級成員。

????譯者：默默

????When we exhaust our analysis, we should find that the most strategic explanation for this acquisition is China's environmental degradation. For years, observers have been trying to figure out the real-world consequences of the extensive pollution of air, water, and farmland in China as a result of its rapid economic growth. Various estimates have been used to calculate the economic costs and human toll of pollution (estimates of the costs of pollution range from 5 to 8% of GDP, depending on the value of a statistical life used for the exercise). Such numbers are shocking but abstract.

????With Shuanghui's purchase of Smithfield, these numbers are less abstract. The real story behind this transaction is that far-sighted Chinese entrepreneurs fully understand that, because pollution has contaminated major parts of China's food chain, their future profit opportunities lie in buying the entire food-production process abroad. Bagging Smithfield, in this sense, is not about getting its hogs, pork-processing technology, or even premium brand. It is really about owning access to America's safe farmland and clean water supplies.

????This strategic calculation is truly brilliant. Based on official Chinese data, more than two-thirds of its waterways are polluted. A sample study of farmland conducted in the late 1990s showed 10% contaminated with heavy metal. A three-year national survey of soil conditions completed in 2010 must have yielded such alarming data that the Ministry of Environmental Protection declared the data a "state secret."

????Given the fact that cleaning up land and waterways despoiled by heavy metal and other carcinogens requires huge amounts of money and takes a long time, buying food producers that own their land and have access to safe water supplies is a far more attractive proposition.

????If this analysis is correct, the Shuanghui purchase of Smithfield is a harbinger of things to come. Pressured by the catastrophic consequences of environmental degradation, Chinese food producers will have no choice but set their sights abroad. No doubt, this will present great business opportunities for many, but a rapid increase in Chinese acquisitions of food companies overseas will almost certainly create tensions between China and the rest of the world. Sadly, there are no good policies in place to address this challenge.

????Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.