頂尖分析師:我們正向新一代平臺轉移
????????圖為1975年至2012年間按操作系統出貨量衡量,iOS、安卓、Windows在全球個人電腦市場份額的變遷。
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????瑪麗?米克爾的年度“互聯網趨勢”報告跟上周一上午科奇?羅伯茨在美國國家公共電臺(NPR)的說法類似,充斥著毫無新意的傳統智慧。 ????當然,這并不意味著這份報告毫無價值:與羅伯茨每周的報告一樣,米克爾的年度報告將許多不相干的信息放在大背景下進行分析,讓人們認識到什么才是傳統智慧:羅伯茨是環城路智慧,而米克爾則是硅谷智慧。在這方面,米克爾比羅伯茨略勝一籌:她提供的大部分都是由風險投資公司凱鵬華盈(Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers)內部生成的數據。這位互聯網分析師同時也是這家公司的合伙人。上周三,她在AllThingD科技大會上公布了自己的報告,使用了大量幻燈片。 ????其中一份幻燈片顯示,在社交媒體服務領域,Facebook仍處于領先位置,Twitter、Pinterest、YouTube、商務社交網站LinkedIn等均增長迅速,促使米克爾說出了一句可以作為報告標語的話:“大家都知道這些,靠直覺就能理解——下面這些數據只是佐證。” ????另外一張幻燈片顯示,網民每天在線分享的照片達到了5億張。米爾克預計,一兩年內,這個數據將就會翻一番。雖然90%分享的照片只有分享者自己認為有趣,但這個數據依然令人難以置信,它也解釋了為什么Facebook愿意出10億美元收購Instagram,為什么雅虎(Yahoo)最終決定對之前停滯不前的Flickr服務進行改進,以及為什么蘋果(Apple)在電視廣告里都在把iPhone宣傳成一款相機。米克爾表示,引領照片分享增長趨勢的是Snapchat,但照片同樣帶動了Facebook和其他服務的流量增長。 |
????Mary Meeker's annual Internet Trends report is a little like Cokie Roberts's Monday morning appearances on NPR -- a litany of points of unsurprising conventional wisdom. ????That doesn't make it valueless: Like Roberts's weekly reports, Meeker's annual presentations put a lot of disparate information in context and offer a guide to what is, well, the conventional wisdom: Beltway wisdom in Roberts's case, Silicon Valley wisdom in Meeker's. Meeker is one up on Roberts in this respect: She offers a lot of data largely generated in-house at the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, where the Internet analyst is a partner. Her report, presented Wednesday at the AllThingsD conference, was, as always, accompanied by an insane number of slides. ????One of them, showing Facebook (FB) at the head of the pack of social media services that are all growing -- Twitter, Pinterest, YouTube (GOOG), LinkedIn (LNKD) -- prompted Meeker to utter a line that could have been the slogan for her report: "You know that, you intuit it -- here's some data that backs it up." ????Another slide showed that 500 million photos are shared online every day, and Meeker expects that number to double between this year and next. Never mind that seemingly 90% of shared photos are interesting mainly just to the sharer, that's an incredible number and it explains why Facebook shelled out $1 billion for Instagram, why Yahoo (YHOO) finally got around to revamping its formerly moribund Flickr service, and why Apple (AAPL) is running all those TV spots peddling the iPhone as a camera. Snapchat is leading the growth of photo-sharing, Meeker said, but photos are driving traffic growth for Facebook and lots of other services as well. |